Engineering Commons^™

Assessing Risk At The National Strategic Level: Visualization Tools For Military Planners, Wade A. Germann, Heather S. Gregg

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The reemergence of great power competition, conflict with near-peer competitor states below the level of armed conflict, and persisting threats from nonstate actors with transnational ambitions and global reach pose challenges for strategists planning, executing, and assessing military operations and strategy. Building on current visualization tools, two proposed models—the National Strategic Risk Abacus and the National Strategic Risk Radar Chart—address these challenges and better depict how the US military may inadvertently contribute to risk at the national strategic level.

Toward Online Linguistic Surveillance Of Threatening Messages, Brian H. Spitzberg, Jean Mark Gawron

Journal of Digital Forensics, Security and Law

Threats are communicative acts, but it is not always obvious what they communicate or when they communicate imminent credible and serious risk. This paper proposes a research- and theory-based set of over 20 potential linguistic risk indicators that may discriminate credible from non-credible threats within online threat message corpora. Two prongs are proposed: (1) Using expert and layperson ratings to validate subjective scales in relation to annotated known risk messages, and (2) Using the resulting annotated corpora for automated machine learning with computational linguistic analyses to classify non-threats, false threats, and credible threats. Rating scales are proposed, existing threat corpora …

A Model Of Human Harm From A Falling Unmanned Aircraft: Implications For Uas Regulation, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper quantifies the human harm, in the form of fatalities and skull fractures, which could occur as a result of an unmanned aircraft falling from a height. The analysis is used to establish the maximum height at which an unmanned aircraft can be flown over people to achieve a level of safety consistent with the rate of ground fatalities from General Aviation. The maximum height is dependent on the aircraft mass and the population density of people on the ground below.

The results are used to inform a critical evaluation of recent recommendations from the FAA-chartered “Unmanned Aircraft Systems …