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Does The Elicitation Mode Matter? Comparing Different Methods For Eliciting Expert Judgement, Claire Cruickshank
Does The Elicitation Mode Matter? Comparing Different Methods For Eliciting Expert Judgement, Claire Cruickshank
Masters Theses
An expert elicitation is a method of eliciting subjective probability distributions over key parameters from experts. Traditionally an expert elicitation has taken the form of a face-to-face interview; however, interest in using online methods has been growing. This thesis compares two elicitation modes and examines the effectiveness of an interactive online survey compared to a face-to-face interview. Differences in central values, overconfidence, accuracy and satisficing were considered. The results of our analysis indicated that, in instances where the online and face-to-face elicitations were directly comparable, the differences between the modes was not significant. Consequently, a carefully designed online elicitation may …