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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
A Multivariate Modeling Approach For Generating Ensemble Climatology Forcing For Hydrologic Applications, Sepideh Khajehei
A Multivariate Modeling Approach For Generating Ensemble Climatology Forcing For Hydrologic Applications, Sepideh Khajehei
Dissertations and Theses
Reliability and accuracy of the forcing data plays a vital role in the Hydrological Streamflow Prediction. Reliability of the forcing data leads to accurate predictions and ultimately reduction of uncertainty. Currently, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are developing ensemble forecasts for various temporal and spatial scales. However, it is proven that the raw products of the NWP models may be biased at the basin scale; unlike model grid scale, depending on the size of the catchment. Due to the large space-time variability of precipitation, bias-correcting the ensemble forecasts has proven to be a challenging task. In recent years, Ensemble Pre-Processing …
Toward A Reliable Prediction Of Seasonal Forecast Uncertainty: Addressing Model And Initial Condition Uncertainty With Ensemble Data Assimilation And Sequential Bayesian Combination, Caleb Matthew Dechant, Hamid Moradkhani
Toward A Reliable Prediction Of Seasonal Forecast Uncertainty: Addressing Model And Initial Condition Uncertainty With Ensemble Data Assimilation And Sequential Bayesian Combination, Caleb Matthew Dechant, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Uncertainties are an unfortunate yet inevitable part of any forecasting system. Within the context of seasonal hydrologic predictions, these uncertainties can be attributed to three causes: imperfect characterization of initial conditions, an incomplete knowledge of future climate and errors within computational models. This study proposes a method to account for all threes sources of uncertainty, providing a framework to reduce uncertainty and accurately convey persistent predictive uncertainty. In currently available forecast products, only a partial accounting of uncertainty is performed, with the focus primarily on meteorological forcing. For example, the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique uses meteorological climatology to estimate …