Engineering Commons^™

Assessment Of Changes In Riverine Nitrate In The Sesan, Srepok And Sekong Tributaries Of The Lower Mekong River Basin, Chanta Oeurng, Thomas A. Cochrane, Mauricio E. Arias, Bikesh Shrestha, Thanapon Piman

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Changes in nitrates are of particular concern in tropical regions undergoing rapid development, as these changes may affect local and downstream riverine ecosystems. This study assessed the spatial and temporal differences in nitrate loads within the Sesan, Srepok, and Sekong (3S) Rivers, the largest tributaries of the Mekong River. Simulation results from a flow and nitrate calibrated SWAT model show large differences in year-to-year nitrate loads, a strong seasonality, and clear variability patterns in monthly nitrate loads in the 3S outlet during the wet season. The annual total nitrate loading from the 3S Rivers account for approximately 30% of the …

Proactive Assessment Of Climate Change And Contaminant Spill Impacts On Source Water Quality, Lillian C. Jeznach

Doctoral Dissertations

Managing the water quality of surface drinking water sources has become an increasingly difficult task for water suppliers due to increased watershed urbanization and climate change. Changes in source water quality may affect public perceptions, treatment effectiveness, and ultimately costs to treat water to drinking standards. Although there are increased threats to current and future drinking water quality, current approaches to managing these threats are typically reactionary. Prior detailed modeling efforts of hypothetical events that may impair raw water quality allow for an understanding of constituent fate and transport, including potential maximum concentrations and travel times to the drinking water …

Predictions Of Ponderosa Pine Resiliency To Climate Change In The Cebolla Canyon Watershed, New Mexico, Breana N. Chavez

Water Resources Professional Project Reports

This project was designed to understand the potential impacts of climate change on soil moisture and the resiliency of ponderosa pine in the forested region of the Cebolla Canyon watershed (Cebolla), located in eastern New Mexico. Much of the watershed is administered as public domain land by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM). This project aims to help BLM managers understand how climate change is projected to impact ponderosa pine seedling establishment and mature ponderosa pine productivity in Cebolla.

Current and potential future soil moisture regimes in Cebolla were simulated on three hills using HYDRUS-1D. The soil moisture regimes …

Climate Change And The Delta, San Francisco Estuary And Watershed Science, Michael D. Dettinger, Jamie Anderson, Michael L. Anderson, Larry R. Brown, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes …

Reconciling Information From Climate-Economic Model Ensembles, A. Shchiptsova, D. Kovalevsky, E. Rovenskaya

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

To date, no model building process can guarantee full representation of the complex climate-economic processes and narrow down the uncertainty associated with future climate projections. Multiple highly detailed models are developed by individual research groups to capture various known aspects of the climate processes. Normally, these models represent only a part of the climate-society system due to its complexity. On the other hand, a number of the simplified integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been put forward in the attempt to introduce the full causal loop between accumulated emissions, economy and climate, and study associated uncertainty. We present a simplified system …

Climate Change Impacts On Precipitation Extremes, Flows And Flash Floods In Mediterranean Mesoscale Catchments, Antoine Colmet Daage, Sophie Ricci, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Eric Servat, Cécile Llovel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mediterranean meso-scale river catchments are submitted to extremes floods events linked to intense convective precipitation and local hydrologic features (karst, soil moisture, land use).The Mediterranean region is known to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, and it is likely that changes can be expected in the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to assess the climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events using a so-called “futurization” method, in which a transfer function is built by comparing the quantiles of distribution for both present and future climate precipitation. A number of historical flood events, previously …

Informing Adaptive Strategies For The Colorado Basin, David Groves, Robert Lempert, Jordan Fischbach, Evan Bloom

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Colorado River is the single most important source of water in the southwestern United States, providing water and power for nearly 40 million people and water to irrigate more than five million acres of farmland across seven states and for 22 Native American tribes. A vast physical and institutional infrastructure exists to provide water, as well as hydropower, recreational opportunities, environmental services, and other benefits to all these users. However, increasing demand, a decade of drought, and expectations of a significantly changing future climate have put the system under significant and deeply uncertain stress. This paper employs and extends …

Water Resource Management With The Management Software Manuela, Monika Von Haaren

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The impact of climate change with increasing droughts will lead to an increase of water consumption in agriculture. Even in Germany, agricultural land is already irrigated intensively to secure harvests at a higher level. The demand for additional irrigation will lead to conflicts between agriculture, water management and nature conservation. This paper shows a new way for the evaluation of water use in agricultural farming. With the developed method stakeholder can assess the water consumption for irrigation in agriculture, which is transferable, regionally applicable and comparable. The water-module is available as a new plug-in in the management software MANUELA and …

Modelling Adaptive Behaviour In Spatial Agent-­Based Models: Coastal Cities And Climate Change, Tatiana Filatova, Erik Horstman, Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher, Ju-­Sung Lee, Johan De Waard

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A major part of world population lives in coastal and delta areas threatened by adverse consequences of climate change (increasing probabilities or severity of floods and hurricanes). It might lead to a forced displacement of up to 187 million people in coastal zones. Still, exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas rapidly escalate due to the clustering of population and growth of property values in flood-­prone areas. Land markets driven by individual location preferences are crucial in the formation of spatial patterns of activities and the economic value they receive. Under the conditions of uncertainty where probabilistic disasters and rich amenities …

Explicit Cost Accounting For Adaptation, Mitigation And Ecosystem Service Provision In Agriculture, Franz Sinabell, Karin Heinschink, Christoph Tribl

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Farmers, policy makers and scientists are well aware of this problem: obtaining sound cost information for climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in agriculture or ecosystem service provision by agriculture is burdensome. In most cases, data sets are developed for a specific region with a given set of management variants for a baseline period. Adapting such information to another region or adjusting costs to expected future price scenarios requires additional efforts and frequently done an ad-hoc and case by case. A new tool is presented that can be used to identify and analyze the entangled effects of future climate and …

Autoflow© - A Novel Application For Water Resource Management And Climate Change Response Using Smart Technology, Khoi Anh Nguyen, Oz Sahin, Rodney Anthony Stewart, Hong Zhang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Several analysis platforms have been developed worldwide to help effectively control and response to these impacts from different angles, including water resources management, energy production and consumption management, air pollution control, or other natural resources management. To contribute to this goal, Griffith University in Australia has developed Autoflow^©, a smart application for water demand analysis and carbon emission monitoring and prediction. Various advanced mathematical models have been …

Hydrological Water Resources Assessment Of Cega-Eresma-Adaja Watershed System Using Swat Model, David A. Rivas, Angel De Miguel, Bárbara Willarts

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the hydrological assessment of water bodies, modeling is a key fact in water management strategies of watersheds and serves as a tool for decision making considering environmental issues as the core of sustainable development in the region. In this direction, SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to assess the water availability related with agricultural management in the watersheds of the tributary rivers Cega, Eresma and Adaja of Duero’s River in Spain both in the current and future climate change scenarios. To define the HRUs, land use maps from remote-sensing processes were used, extracting the agricultural uses …

A Physical Scaling Method To Incorporate Regional Physical Characteristics In Future Climatic And Hydrologic Predictions, Abhishek Gaur

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

In this thesis an original Physical Scaling (SP) method for downscaling Global Circulation Model (GCM) based climatic projections has been developed, tested and applied over a study region. The model formulation can take into account regional physical characteristics like land-cover and elevation into the model formulation. A thorough verification of the method and its extension: SP with Surrounding pixel information (SPS) method has been performed and their performance towards downscaling GCM based precipitation, surface temperature and air temperature has been compared with many state-of-the-art downscaling models like Bias Correction Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) method, Statistical DownScaling Method (SDSM) and Generalized Linear …

A Systems Approach To Modelling The Effects Of Climate Change On Agroforestry: A Case Study In Western Tanzania, Elaine M. Samuel

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change is anticipated to have significant effects on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa as the magnitude of weather events increase in severity. Smallholder farmers in western Tanzania are potentially vulnerable to climate change impact as crops rely on precipitation as the only source of water. It is prudent to evaluate different modes of agricultural adaptations, such as agroforestry, that these farmers can easily adopt to improve their resiliency to the effects of climate change. System dynamics modelling is a cost-effective tool to simulate the long-term behaviour of agroforestry systems under future climate conditions. Water, Nutrient, and Light Capture in …

Lessons From Rebuild By Design, Tara Eisenberg

May 6, 2016: Planning for Resilience in Hampton Roads

No abstract provided.

Simulation Of Conservation Practice Effects On Water Quality Under Current And Future Climate Scenarios, Carlington W. Wallace

Open Access Dissertations

Analysis of the effects of implementing different conservation practices, as well as increased levels of conservation practices under existing and projected future climate, will determine if current conservation practice recommendations will be sufficient to maintain soil and water resources. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to study four watersheds of different sizes (CCW = 680 km2, F34 = 183 km2, AXL = 42 km 2 and ALG = 20 km2) located in Northeastern Indiana. The overarching goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of various agricultural practices on runoff and agricultural chemical losses under current …

Physically Based Modeling Of The Impacts Of Climate Change On Streamflow Regime, Nazmus Shams Sazib

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Understanding the implications of climate change on streamflow regime is complex as changes in climate vary over space and time. However, a better understanding of the impact of climate change is required for identifying how stream ecosystems vulnerable to these changes, and ultimately to guide the development of robust strategies for reducing risk in the face of changing climatic conditions. Here I used physically based hydrologic modeling to improve understanding of how climate change may impact streamflow regimes and advance some of the cyberinfrastructure and GIS methodologies that support physically based hydrologic modeling by: (1) using a physically based model …

Planning For Climate Change: The Need For Mechanistic Systems-Based Approaches To Study Climate Change Impacts On Diarrheal Diseases, Jonathan E. Mellor, Karen Levy, Julie Zimmerman, Mark Elliott, Jamie Bartram, Elizabeth Carlton, Thomas Clasen, Rebecca Dilingham, Joseph Eisenberg, Richard Guerrant, Daniele Lantagne, James Mihelcic, Kara Nelson

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying …

Ensemble Forecasts: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Based On A Model Ensemble, Hannah Aizenman, Michael D. Grossberg, Nir Y. Krakauer, Irina Gladkova

Publications and Research

Ensembles of general circulation model (GCM) integrations yield predictions for meteorological conditions in future months. Such predictions have implicit uncertainty resulting from model structure, parameter uncertainty, and fundamental randomness in the physical system. In this work, we build probabilistic models for long-term forecasts that include the GCM ensemble values as inputs but incorporate statistical correction of GCM biases and different treatments of uncertainty. Specifically, we present, and evaluate against observations, several versions of a probabilistic forecast for gridded air temperature 1 month ahead based on ensemble members of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 …

Can The Gulf Stream Induce Coherent Short-Term Fluctuations In Sea Level Along The Us East Coast?: A Modeling Study, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Much attention has been given in recent years to observations and models that show that variations in the transport of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and in the Gulf Stream (GS) can contribute to interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal variations in coastal sea level (CSL) along the US East Coast. However, less is known about the impact of short-term (time scales of days to weeks) fluctuations in the GS and their impact on CSL anomalies. Some observations suggest that these anomalies can cause unpredictable minor tidal flooding in low-lying areas when the GS suddenly weakens. Can these short-term CSL variations …

Calpoly 2015 Transportation Survey Report, William Riggs

City and Regional Planning Studios and Projects

In the spring of 2015, City & Regional Planning faculty conducted a campus-wide transportation survey as part of work on the campus Climate Action Plan. The survey represented spring 2014 commutes and was issued to a sample of full and part-time CalPoly faculty, staff, students and auxiliaries with assistance from Facilities Services and the Vice President for Administration and Finance.

The total number of responses was 3,961, roughly 17% of the entire campus population of roughly 23,000. Unsurprisingly, the majority of respondents were students, totaling 68.6%, while the rest were made up of faculty, staff, and visitors. Results are significant …

Methane Emissions As Energy Reservoir: Context, Scope, Causes And Mitigation Strategies, Xiaoli Chai, David J. Tonjes, Devinder Mahajan

Technology & Society Faculty Publications

Methane (CH4) is now considered a bridge fuel between present fossil (carbon) economy and desired renewables and this energy molecule is projected to play an important role in the global energy mix well beyond 2035. The atmospheric warming potential of CH4 is 28-36 times, when averaged over a 100-year period, that of carbon dioxide (CO2) and this necessitates a close scrutiny of global CH4 emissions inventory. As the second most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG), the annual global CH4 emissions were 645 million metric tons (MMT), accounting for 14.3% of the global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Of this, five key anthropogenic sources: …

Resilience Of Rail Infrastructure In The U.S. Northeast Corridor, Daniel Delgado, Can B. Aktas Ph.D.

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications

The New Haven Line reports a record number of passengers every year as it continues to experience a steady increase in ridership. In 2012, the railroad reported 39 million passengers, with a further increase of 46% predicted over the next 18 years eventually reaching 57 million trips annually by 2030. Despite the great importance of the rail infrastructure for the region, problems exist for operating under harsh weather-related conditions, and when congestion or frequent malfunctions disrupts system timeliness with speed restrictions. These on-time performance and reliability issues have significant economic, environmental, and societal impacts. The aim of this study was …

Probability-Based Hurricane Resilience Evaluation And Retrofitting For Residential Community, Yadong Dong

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Wood residential construction is vulnerable to hurricanes, as evident in recent hurricane events. Many studies indicated that the changing climate may very likely alter hurricane patterns, which could lead to more severe hurricane damage to the wood residential construction that accounts for 90% of the residence in the USA. On the other hand, deterioration of material increases the chance of structural failure by reducing the structural capacity (e.g., corrosion of fasteners in roof panel could significantly reduce the withdrawal capacity of the roofing structure during hurricane events).

Currently, most hurricane damage estimations only focus on direct loss (e.g., structural loss). …

Evaluating Groundwater Recharge In The Saloum Region Of Senegal, Alexander Wohlgemuth

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Approximately 1.2 billion people in the world live in an area facing physical, or absolute, water scarcity (defined as access to less than 1,000 cubic meters of water). This number is projected to increase to 1.8 billion by the year 2025. Thirty-eight percent of the world’s population lives in arid, semi-arid or dry subhumid regions, which translates to a high dependence on the 30% of the world’s freshwater present in the ground. Further, the rate of water use is increasing rapidly – between two and two and a half times that of population growth, over the last century.

In regions …

Assessing The Impacts Of Climate Change On The Surface Temperature Of Inland Lakes In Michigan, Kaitlin Reinl

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

The aim of this study was to validate and apply a lake model for predicting the susceptibility of small inland lakes in Michigan to changes in thermal regime and increased cyanobacteria growth as a result of future climate conditions. The Freshwater Lake Model was selected, tested for sensitivity to various inputs, and validated through comparison to observed conditions. The sensitivity analysis showed that the lake model was most sensitive to solar radiation, air temperature, and air humidity. Comparison of predicted climate data with observed conditions revealed highly variable climate model error. The lake model validation was conducted using 10 lakes …

Coastal Flood Risk In A Changing Climate Along The Northern Gulf Of Mexico, Matthew Vernon Bilskie

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Coastal regions around the world are experiencing increased vulnerability from natural and manmade disasters. It is anticipated that coastal flood risk will increase due to the effects of climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular. A dynamic, physics-based, framework to compute coastal flood inundation maps under various climate change scenarios was developed. The novel modeling system includes not only SLR, but considers future projections of shoreline evolution and primary dune morphology, upland migration of intertidal marsh, and land use land cover change. A present day hurricane storm surge model was generated for the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida panhandle …