Engineering Commons^™

Quantifying Impacts Of Climate Change On Headwater Streamflow Regime In Robinson Forest: Insights From 35-Years Of Data Collection., Lauren Brown

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Climate change may shift patterns of streamflow permanence in headwater systems by altering the frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, and rate of change of surface streamflow, impacting both local ecosystems as well as regional water budgets and availability. While much uncertainty surrounds modeling-based methods to quantify the impacts of climate change on water budgets, long-term hydrologic data collected from headwaters in experimental research forests serve as critical evidence to reduce such uncertainty. The objective of this study is to quantify shifts in frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, and rate of change of streamflow in two headwater catchments with relatively little recent disturbance …

How Active Rainwater Harvesting May Help Reduce Nuisance Flooding: Flood Analysis And Social Barriers To Adoption, Isabel Lopez

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

As urbanization continues to expand, fewer pervious surfaces are available to help reduce stormwater runoff from rainfall. The impacts of urbanization are becoming evident through sunny day flooding - flooding that occurs in areas not designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as flood zones. Nevertheless, water accumulates in low-lying areas and compromises street intersections and other parts of neighborhoods. Some methods can help alleviate the impacts of unexpected heavy rains, such as passive and active rainwater harvesting. As a pilot study, in a selected area in the northeast of El Paso, the level of adoption (e.g., what percentage …

Water Resources Planning Under Deep Uncertainty For Physically, Socially, And Politically Complex Systems, Sarah St. George Freeman

Doctoral Dissertations

Water supply systems, particularly those of large cities, are complex systems linking supply, regulatory and distribution infrastructure, and points of use. Despite their physical complexities, it is infrequent that full supply, distribution, end use, and feedbacks therein are considered in an integrated manner. These complex systems-of-systems face large uncertainties related to physical aspects such as degradation of infrastructure, changing demand, and climate variability and change. Though great, such physical uncertainties often pale in comparison to the those related to the human systems in place to manage them and yet uncertainty in the decision-making landscape is often grossly simplified in our …

Resiliency Of Levee-Protected Power Networks To Flooding In A Changing Climate Integrating Environmental Justice, Seyed Saeed Miraee-Ashtiani

Theses and Dissertations

Electric power system (EPS) is an integral part of infrastructure systems. Ensuring its resiliency to extreme weather events and natural hazards is crucial to protect the safety, economy and public health. Recorded and projected data show an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events and natural hazards attributed to a changing climate. It is critical to ensure the integrity of the aging infrastructure systems and to promote environmental justice by shrinking the energy-equity gap to lower power outages in disadvantaged communities.

An important aspect is the resiliency interdependency of EPS to other critical infrastructure systems, an aspect …

Joint Failure Probability Of Dams Based On Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis, Matthew G. Montgomery

Masters Theses

Probabilistic risk methods are becoming increasingly accepted as a means of carrying out risk-informed decision making regarding the design and operation of structures such as dams. Probabilistic risk calculations require the quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties not investigated through deterministic methodologies. In this hydrological study, a stochastic sampling methodology is employed to investigate the joint failure probability of three dams in adjacent, similarly sized watersheds within the same Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 6 basin. A Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis (PFHA) framework is used to simulate the hydrologic loading of a wide range of extreme precipitation events across the combined …

Predicting Water Quality Vulnerability Under Climate Change With Machine Learning, Khanh Thi Nhu Nguyen

Doctoral Dissertations

Water quality deterioration is a global and pervasive issue due to pollution caused by industrialization, urbanization, agriculturalization, and human population growth in the modern era. This issue is even more challenging in the context of climate change due to warming temperatures and the intensification of precipitation. Therefore, assessing the potential impacts of climate change on water quality is a concern. Assessment is necessary so that planners can prepare for and reduce the negative impacts on water quality. At present, climate change impact assessment frameworks are relatively adolescent. Most studies rely on climate projections from General Circulation Models for simulations of …

A Critical Review Of Climate Change On Coastal Infrastructure Systems, Gregory J. Howland Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is a response to climate threats identified by DoD report on Climate Change in 2019. A critical review of climate change literature related to coastal infrastructure was conducted to synthesize past research and to inform future research. This review intends to inform how climate change may impact infrastructure systems, how those impacts are evaluated, can the investigation be improved, and what can stakeholders learn from the outcomes. The end goal is to find climate change mitigation strategies and adaptation measures, or identify the easiest path to get to that end. The compiled information will inform civilian and military …

Hydrologic Profiles And Geospatial Trend Analysis Evaluating Recurrent Flooding At Coastal U.S. Air Force Installations, Dylan D. Bechen

Theses and Dissertations

Military installations are exposed to numerous threats, including a changing climate and the risk of recurrent flooding. The four components of recurrent flooding are sea-level rise, tidal fluctuations, storm surges, and precipitation. This research analyzed 40 years of historical precipitation and tidal data at 17 coastal U.S. Air Force installations using indicators of both peak and threshold exceedances to identify long-term temporal trends in the hydrologic components that make up recurrent flood risk, establishing an installation’s “hydrologic profile” which can be used to better inform decision makers when evaluating portfolio-wide adaptation strategies and prioritization of long-term infrastructure investments.

Carbon Estimation And Decision Making In Usaf Acquisition, Robert F. Gray

Theses and Dissertations

Recent executive orders and international agreements require the United States to significantly reduce its carbon and greenhouse gas emissions. The DoD is a significant contributor to the carbon emissions of the USA and will be required to reduce the emissions. Therefore, in order to make appropriate programmatic decisions the DoD needs to develop an appropriate method for estimating carbon and making programmatic decisions; trading-off carbon emissions with the traditional cost-schedule-performance metrics. This thesis examines the possibility of developing a model that can be used to estimate the carbon footprint of producing a system before detailed engineering designed have been complete.

On A New Framework For Detecting, Classifying, And Forecasting Floods For Large-Scale Flood Risk Analysis, Equisha Glenn

Dissertations and Theses

Increasing trends in flooding events are projected to continue as climate changes have increased the chance of extreme weather events. Given the significant, damaging impacts of extreme floods, the ability to effectively model floods is crucial for risk management and mitigation of the impacts of these extreme flooding events. This dissertation presents a new framework for detecting and predicting large-scale flood risk in the United States using climate information. This methodology categorizes regional, simultaneous floods into an index that is used to forecast the risk of extreme flooding a season ahead. The index proposed herein, named the Spatial Flood Index …

Combating Climate Change: Saving American Wastewater Treatment Infrastructure, Seamus Quinn

Honors Theses and Capstones

Climate change is a significant issue currently facing the United States’ wastewater treatment sector. It is becoming increasingly clear that its effects have the potential to damage and disrupt the operations of both treatment facilities and associated systems. This study aims to determine which effects of climate change contribute to this risk based on feedback from a combination of academic researchers and industry professionals. A case study of the city of Warwick, Rhode Island’s wastewater treatment facility was used to supplement this information based on an evaluation of how this particular system has been impacted by the effects of climate …

Assessing The Potential And Pathways For Renewable Energy Transformations In Orleans, California, Malcolm Prescott Moncheur De Rieudotte

Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects

In what is now known as the state of California in the United States, the Karuk Tribe is interested in deploying a renewable-powered microgrid in the rural community of Orleans to improve electricity system reliability and resilience to address a wide range of challenges, including extreme events such as wildfires. This study assesses the potential of local distributed renewable energy and battery storage to meet Orleans' energy needs today and in the increasingly electrified future using an energy model. It also identifies existing cultural and social priorities for energy technology along with structural barriers to renewable energy adoption and the …

An Analysis Of The Air Force Installation Development Plan And Its Energy Benchmarking Effectiveness, Jacob P. Hyman

Theses and Dissertations

Installation Development Plan (IDP) is a comprehensive long-term base planning document, which includes an inventory of sustainable development goals including energy use and climate indicators. This study analyzed 32 different IDPs among the various installations in the continental United States, identifying regional trends and behaviors across their 16 Sustainability Development Indicators (SDI). To study the IDPs more in depth, specific focus was placed on SDI 1, which concerns energy consumption and generation. This study investigated the different variations in energy benchmarking across local climate conditions, SDI ratings, and units used. Major inconsistencies were found across these three domains. Subsequently, the …

Sustainable Agricultural Development In The Western Desert Of Egypt Under Climate Change: A Case Study Of The Siwa Region, Noha Hossam Moghazy

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The Siwa region located in the Western Desert of Egypt is a natural depression and has a large volume of groundwater from the non-renewable Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS). Recently the government initiated a development project to reclaim 1.5 million acres where most of the lands are located in the Western Desert to use available groundwater from NSAS. The primary goal of this project is to increase agricultural areas enabling rural development. Siwa is one of the areas that will be reclaimed in the desert by about 30,000 acres consisting of good soil quality. This dissertation aims to understand the …

When It Rains, It Pours: A Case Study Of Spatio-Temporal Variations In High-Intensity Precipitation Events In Arkansas, Deanna Mantooth-Hendrix

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Climate change is having an impact on weather systems and ecosystems worldwide. Glaciers are receding, oceans are acidifying, hurricanes are stronger, and extreme precipitation is increasing in frequency. Even with the wealth of data and knowledge about the threat of climate change, some places are slow to adapt because they think that the impact to their ecosystem will not be severe. The goal of this project was to determine if climate change is having an impact on extreme precipitation in the top urban areas of Arkansas. The major concern with an increase in extreme events in urban areas is flooding. …

Stability Of Low Crested And Submerged Breakwaters: A Reanalysis And Model Development, Christopher P. Burgess

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Low-crested and submerged structures (LCS) play an integral part in the stabilization of shorelines for recreational purposes, yet there are a plethora of empirical models and gaps in the understanding of their stability and damage progression. The objectives were: i) to evaluate the present formulae, ii) explore variable importance, iii) formulate a stability model, iv) extend the current datasets and v) explore a new model for LCS. The literature points to an increasing understanding of the initiation of damage of LCS and recent exploration of the shear stress-induced erosion (van Rijn, 2019). Assessment of two existing models (Kramer, 2006 and …

Developing Infrastructure Adaptation Pathways To Combat Hurricane Intensification: A Coupled Storm Simulation And Economic Modeling Framework For Coastal Installations, Alexander J. Baldwin

Theses and Dissertations

Climate change projections suggest intensification of extreme weather events, including hurricanes, is expected throughout the 21st century. This will lead to increased destruction for coastal military bases unless infrastructure resiliency and adaptation measures are implemented. This research focuses on examining the simulation of probabilistic, climate-intensified hurricane events at Eglin Air Force Base. FEMA Hazus models are combined with climate projections for wind Intensity, tide, and sea-level rise to produce an assessment of losses to the installation. Damage estimates and hurricane intensity outputs are downscaled to the facility-level so that climate adaptation signals can be identified. The facility losses and climate …

Improving Airfield Pavement Degradation Prediction Skill With Local Climate And Traffic, Evan M. Fortney

Theses and Dissertations

Airfield pavements are a critical component of the global transportation network that provide a platform for national defense. Preventative and corrective maintenance activities are founded upon accurate expectations of degradation. The leading pavement management software creates degradation predictions from pavement groups using age as the IV and current state conditions as the DV. For this work, a framework is created and implemented that utilizes a PCR model to build upon accepted practices for degradation modeling to enhance and possibly augment future prediction capabilities. The model was applied to pairs of location and pavement family and reveals several findings: the selected …

Impact Of Climate Change On Storms And Coastal Morphodynamics, Kelsey Perez

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Storms have been impacting coastal morphodynamics directly due to its intensifying effects over the years. Climate change has caused an exponential impact on storms and therefore morphodynamic changes in the coasts. A specific land that has constantly been threatened is Dauphin Island, a barrier island in Alabama. Over time, it has experienced a total land loss of 100 ft of shoreline over the past of 3 decades and an overall 16% land loss of the island due to the intensifying effects of storms due to a changing climate. In this study, we use Hurricane Ivan as an example. In order …

Quantifying The Effects Of Climate Change On Pavement Performance Prediction Using Aashtoware Pavement Me Design, Md Shahjalal Chowdhury

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Climate change is one of the most concerning global issues and has the potential to influence every aspect of human life. Like different components of society, it can impose significant adverse impacts on pavement infrastructure. Although several research efforts have focused on studying the effects of climate change on natural and built systems, its impact on pavement performance has not been studied as extensively. The primary objectives of this thesis research was to quantify the effect of temperature changes on flexible pavement response and performance prediction using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design (PMED), and quantify the effects of Local Calibration …

The Effect Of Climate Change On Groundwater Recharge In The United Arab Emirates, Yuliya Fadlallah Saade

Civil and Environmental Theses

Climate change is impacting ecosystems and the water resources by causing temperature variation. Evapotranspiration rates are increasing when the temperature is high whereas, precipitation amount and intensity are varying based on geographical locations.

This change in precipitation has an inevitable impact on the groundwater recharge. Quantification of groundwater recharge is a prerequisite for efficient and sustainable groundwater resources management in arid regions.

Although, both surface and groundwater resources in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are scarce; the anticipated climate change impacts could make these resources even scarcer. As such, the main aim of this thesis is to assess the potential …

Variance Decomposition Of Forecasted Water Budget And Sediment Processes Under Changing Climate In Fluvial And Fluviokarst Systems, Nabil Al Aamery

Theses and Dissertations--Civil Engineering

Variance decomposition is the partitioning of different factors affecting the variance structure of a response variable. The present research focuses on future streamflow and sediment transport processes projections as the response variables. The authors propose using numerous climate factors and hydrological modeling factors that can cause any response variable to vary from historic to future conditions in any given watershed system. The climate modeling factors include global climate model, downscaling method, emission scenario, project phase, bias correction. The hydrological modeling factor includes hydrological model parametrization, and meteorological variable inclusion in the analysis. This research uses a wide spectrum of data, …

An Evaluation Of Ground-Freezing Methods In The Zone Of Discontinuous Permafrost, Northwest Territories, Elzbieta Mastej Ms

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Northwestern Canada is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. The southern limit of the discontinuous permafrost zone is highly sensitive to small climatic fluctuations and presently experiencing a rapid landscape change due to accelerated permafrost thaw, which is further exacerbated by anthropogenic disturbances such as seismic exploration. Recent research has begun to examine both natural and mechanical approaches to minimize permafrost loss, although the utility of such methods in peatland environments is not well understood. This study explored the efficiency of natural and artificial ground cooling processes in a peatland environment by evaluating snow exclusion and thermosyphon …

Hydro-Climatic Changes And Corresponding Impacts On Agricultural Water Demand In The Ganges Delta Of Bangladesh, Sonia Binte Murshed

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh, a transboundary rural river basin, is an example of water-related calamities due to natural and human-induced stresses. It is an agriculture-dominated area with the presence of Sundarbans mangrove forest. Recently this area is facing unfavorable conditions due to limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available freshwater. As a result, floods, droughts, water scarcity, stream depletion, salinity intrusion, excessive sedimentation are becoming common phenomena. These calamities are making this area unsuitable for agriculture and vulnerable to the Sundarbans’ ecosystem. This study aims to provide technical insight into issues related to water scarcity and projected agricultural …

Modeling Response Of Water Quality To Land-Use And Climate Change In Lake Auburn, Me, Nicholas Messina

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Lake Auburn, Maine, USA, is a historically unproductive lake that has experienced multiple algal blooms since 2011. The lake is the water supply source for a population of ~60,000. We modeled past temperature, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Auburn by considering the watershed and internal contributions of P as well as atmospheric factors, and predicted the change in lake water quality in response to future climate and land-use changes. A stream hydrology and P-loading model (SimplyP) was used to generate input from two major tributaries into a lake model (MyLake) to simulate physical mixing, …

Future Changes Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In Western North America Using A Large Ensemble: The Role Of Internal Variability, Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in Western North America (WNA) can cause significant socioeconomic problems and threaten existing infrastructure. In this study we analyze the impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes and assess the role of internal variability over WNA, which collectively drain an area of about 1 million km². We used gridded observations and downscaled precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature from seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a large ensemble of CanESM2 model simulations (CanESM2-LE; 50 members) for this analysis. Spatial …

Perceptions Of Vulnerability To Flooding, Hurricanes, And Climate Change On Grand Isle, Louisiana’S Only Inhabited Barrier Island, Lauren Miller

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study used in-depth interviews of permanent residents on Grand Isle, Louisiana, a remote barrier island, to better understand their perceptions of structural flood measures, non-structural responses to flooding and hurricanes, and perceptions of vulnerability to flooding, hurricanes, and climate change on a remote barrier island-Grand Isle, Louisiana. Residents' perceptions regarding the various structural measures implemented by the federal, state, and local government appeared mixed. Non-structural responses to flooding risks implemented at the household, community, state, and federal level continue to strengthen resiliency on Grand Isle. According to interviewees, aspects of environmental, rural, and economic vulnerability on Grand Isle impact …

Stormwater Infrastructure And The Threat Of Climate Change, Eric Mccaslin

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

The purpose of this report is to analyze the modernization of stormwater infrastructure systems and the growing impact of climate change on said systems. Growing population rates and increasing urban settlement are leading to the water demand approaching the water supply capacity. Climate change is the root of several potentially severe issues affecting water resources as well as the rapidly increasing coastal and urban populations including but not limited to rising sea levels and the increasing severity and frequency of storms. Many cities, especially older or low income ones, also may not have adequate systems in place to handle the …

Evaluating Design Criteria For High Hazard Dams In A Changing Climate, Aaron Read Sutton

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

With changes in climate, there is the potential for future flooding events to vary in frequency and magnitude. These changes may stress the 432 high hazard dames in West Virginia. The 100-year flowrate is an important design criterion for emergency spillways of high hazard dams. Emergency spillways are designed to be reached only by 100-year flow and above. This work quantified how changes in the 100-year flowrate may affect emergency spillway activation. Peakflow data from the Central Appalachian Ecoregion in WV, taken from 24 USGS gages, were used to analyze changes in the 100-year flowrate.

Flow frequency analysis revealed that …

Stream Flow Analysis Of The Big Sioux River Just South Of Brookings, South Dakota, Samuel Ruppert

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Floods are the most common type of natural disaster in the world and one of the most damaging. Changes in climate conditions such as precipitation and temperature are causing changes in stream flow. This means that in order to better understand flooding and possibly develop a system for making flood predictions, stream flow needs to be analyzed more closely. The primary objective of this thesis is to analyze the Big Sioux River just south of Brookings, South Dakota, both annually and seasonally. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has stream gauges placed in rivers and streams all over the United …