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Incorporating Travel Time Reliability Into Transportation Network Modeling, Xu Zhang

Theses and Dissertations--Civil Engineering

Travel time reliability is deemed as one of the most important factors affecting travelers’ route choice decisions. However, existing practices mostly consider average travel time only. This dissertation establishes a methodology framework to overcome such limitation.

Semi-standard deviation is first proposed as the measure of reliability to quantify the risk under uncertain conditions on the network. This measure only accounts for travel times that exceed certain pre-specified benchmark, which offers a better behavioral interpretation and theoretical foundation than some currently used measures such as standard deviation and the probability of on-time arrival.

Two path finding models are then developed by …