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Uncertainty Analyses Of Climate Change Impact On Hydrologic Projections, Ehsan Beigi

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This study conducts uncertainty analysis on future region-scale hydrologic projections under the uncertain climate change projections of the IPCC Fifth and Forth Assessment Reports. The hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method is adopted to segregate and prioritize sources of climate projection uncertainty, obtain ensemble mean of hydrologic projection, and quantify the hydrologic projection uncertainty arising from individual uncertainty sources. This study deals with the choices of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories, global climate models (GCMs), and GCM initial conditions as three major uncertainty sources in downscaled precipitation and temperature projections. The method is applied to investigate future hydrologic projections in …