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A Positive Association Between Cryptosporidiosis Notifications And Ambient Temperature, Victoria, Australia, 2001-2009, Lillian Kent, Michelle Mcpherson, Nasra Higgins

Lillian Kent

Increased temperatures provide optimal conditions for pathogen survival, virulence and replication as well as increased opportunities for human-pathogen interaction. This paper examined the relationship between notifications of cryptosporidiosis and temperature in metropolitan and rural areas of Victoria, Australia between 2001-2009. A negative binomial regression model was used to analyse monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall and the monthly count of cryptosporidiosis notifications. In the metropolitan area, a 1°C increase in monthly average minimum temperature of the current month was associated with a 22% increase in cryptosporidiosis notifications (IRR 1.22; 95% CI 1.13 – 1.31). In the rural area, a …