Business Commons^™

Knowledge Sharing And The Psychological Contract: Managing Knowledge Workers Across Different Stages Of Employment, Bonnie S. O'Neill, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

Purpose – An employee’s willingness to share knowledge may be contingent on whether the organization equitably fulfills its reward obligations. This paper seeks to examine how managers and organizations can be vehicles for managing psychological contract perceptions favoring knowledge sharing among current employees, newcomers, and applicants. Design/methodology/approach – The authors propose an integrative model to discuss psychological contract issues within each stage of employment and HRM initiatives that can encourage knowledge-sharing behaviors. Findings – The implicit psychological contracts that often influence knowledge worker attitudes for sharing knowledge are easy to overlook and challenging to manage. Managers must properly assess the …

Risky Decisions And Decision Support - Does Stress Make A Difference?, Gloria Phillips-Wren, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

Studies of human decision making have demonstrated that stress exacerbates risk taking. Since all decisions involve some element of risk, stress has critical impact on decision quality. Decisions are found to improve with stress up to an optimal threshold beyond which deterioration is observed. However, few studies have examined the psychological experiences underlying risk-taking behavior in conjunction with stress creators. In this paper we propose a research framework that integrates pre-conditions of stress (perceptions of high gain/loss, risk, complexity, and organizational pressure) with observed psychological experiences (time pressure, uncertainty, information overload, and dynamism) that potentially result in risky decision making. …

Expert Systems For Forecasting, Fred Collopy, Monica Adya, J. Scott Armstrong

Monica Adya

Expert systems use rules to represent experts’ reasoning in solving problems. The rules are based on knowledge about methods and the problem domain. To acquire knowledge for an expert system, one should rely on a variety of sources, such as textbooks, research papers, interviews, surveys, and protocol analysis. Protocol analysis is especially useful if the area to be modeled is complex or if experts lack an awareness of their processes. Expert systems should be easy to use, incorporate the best available knowledge, and reveal the reasoning behind the recommendations they make. In forecasting, the most promising applications of expert systems …

Project Quality Of Offshore Virtual Teams Engaged In Software Requirements Analysis: An Exploratory Comparative Study, Dhruv Nath, Varadharajan Sridhar, Monica Adya, Amit Malik

Monica Adya

The off-shore software development companies in countries such as India use a global delivery model in which initial requirement analysis phase of software projects get executed at client locations to leverage frequent and deep interaction between user and developer teams. Subsequent phases such as design, coding and testing are completed at off-shore locations. Emerging trends indicate an increasing interest in off-shoring even requirements analysis phase using computer mediated communication. We conducted an exploratory research study involving students from Management Development Institute (MDI), India and Marquette University (MU), USA to determine quality of such off-shored requirements analysis projects. Our findings suggest …

An Analysis Of Using Expert Systems And Intelligent Agents For The Virtual Library Project At The Naval Surface Warfare Center-Carderock Division, J. Liebowitz, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

The Virtual Library Project1 at the Naval Surface Warfare Center/Carderock Division (NSWC/CD) is being developed to facilitate the incorporation and use of library documents via the Internet. These documents typically relate to the design and manufacture of ships for the U.S. Navy Fleet. As such, the libraries will store documents that contain not only text but also images, graphs and design configurations. Because of the dynamic nature of digital documents, particularly those related to design, rapid and effective cataloging of these documents becomes challenging. We conducted a research study to analyze the use of expert systems and intelligent agents to …

Macs: Multi-Agent Cotr System For Defense Contracting, J. Liebowitz, Monica Adya, B. Rubenstein-Montano, Victoria Y. Yoon, J. Buchwalter, M. Imhoff, S. Baek, C. Suen

Monica Adya

The field of intelligent multi-agent systems has expanded rapidly in the recent past. Multi-agent architectures and systems are being investigated and continue to develop. To date, little has been accomplished in applying multi-agent systems to the defense acquisition domain. This paper describes the design, development, and related considerations of a multi-agent system in the area of procurement and contracting for the defense acquisition community.

An Application Of Rule-Based Forecasting To A Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge, Monica Adya, J. Armstrong, Fred Collopy, Miles Kennedy

Monica Adya

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was originally developed, tested, and validated only on annual data. For the M3-Competition, three major modifications were made to RBF. First, due to the absence of much in the way of domain knowledge, we prepared the forecasts under the assumption that no domain knowledge was available. This removes what we believe is one of RBF's primary advantages. We had to re-calibrate some of the rules relating to causal forces to allow for this lack …

Flexible Global Software Development (Gsd): Antecedents Of Success In Requirements Analysis, Vanita Yadav, Monica Adya, Varadharajan Sridhar, Dhruv Nath

Monica Adya

Globalization of software development has resulted in a rapid shift away from the traditional collocated, on-site development model, to the offshoring model. Emerging trends indicate an increasing interest in offshoring even in early phases like requirements analysis. Additionally, the flexibility offered by the agile development approach makes it attractive for adaptation in globally distributed software work. A question of significance then is what impacts the success of offshoring earlier phases, like requirements analysis, in a flexible and globally distributed environment? This article incorporates the stance of control theory to posit a research model that examines antecedent factors such as requirements …

An Intelligent Data Mining System To Detect Health Care Fraud, Guisseppi Forgionne, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

The chapter begins with an overview of the types of healthcare fraud. Next, there is a brief discussion of issues with the current fraud detection approaches. The chapter then develops information technology based approaches and illustrates how these technologies can improve current practice. Finally, there is a summary of the major findings and the implications for healthcare practice.

Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment In Time-Series Extrapolation, J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy

Monica Adya

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trends, which we call “causal forces.” Time series are described in terms of 28 conditions, which are used to assign weights to extrapolations. Empirical results on multiple sets of time series show that RBF produces more accurate forecasts than those from traditional …

Early Determinants Of Women In The It Workforce: A Model Of Girls’ Career Choices, Monica Adya, Kate Kaiser

Monica Adya

Purpose – To develop a testable model for girls’ career choices in technology fields based on past research and hypotheses about the future of the information technology (IT) workforce.

Design/Methodology/Approach – Review and assimilation of literature from education, psychology, sociology, computer science, IT, and business in a model that identifies factors that can potentially influence a girl’s choice towards or against IT careers. The factors are categorized into social factors (family, peers, and media), structural factors (computer use, teacher/counselor influence, same sex versus coeducational schools), and individual differences. The impact of culture on these various factors is also explored.

Findings …

Designing Effective Forecasting Decision Support Systems: Aligning Task Complexity And Technology Support, Monica Adya, Edward J. Lusk

Monica Adya

No abstract provided.

Data Mining In Health-Care: Issues And A Research Agenda, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

While data mining has become a much-lauded tool in business and related fields, its role in the healthcare arena is still being explored. Currently, most applications of data mining in healthcare can be categorized into two areas: decision support for clinical practice, and policy planning/decision making. However, it is challenging to find empirical literature in this area since a substantial amount of existing work in data mining for health care is conceptual in nature. In this paper, we review the challenges that limit the progress made in this area and present considerations for the future of data mining in healthcare.

Principles For Examining Predictive Validity: The Case Of Information Systems Spending Forecasts, Fred Collopy, Monica Adya, J. Scott Armstrong

Monica Adya

Research over two decades has advanced the knowledge of how to assess predictive validity. We believe this has value to information systems (IS) researchers. To demonstrate, we used a widely cited study of IS spending. In that study, price-adjusted diffusion models were proposed to explain and to forecast aggregate U.S. information systems spending. That study concluded that such models would produce more accurate forecasts than would simple linear trend extrapolation. However, one can argue that the validation procedure provided an advantage to the diffusion models. We reexamined the results using an alternative validation procedure based on three principles extracted from …

Improving And Leveraging Your Forecasting Practice, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

This issue of Cutter Benchmark Review takes a departure from our typical interests. As you know if you closely follow CBR, we focus on technology issues with either a technical or managerial angle. A recent example of the first approach is our July 2007 issue on agile project development (Vol. 7, No. 7), while an example of the second approach is the February 2008 issue on making and using business cases (Vol. 8, No. 2). Given the nature of our interest in information systems and their management, we often produce an issue that is at the crossroads of the technical …

Review Of Managing It Professionals In The Information Age By Eds. Pak Yoong & Sid Huff, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

No abstract provided.

Expert Systems Construction, Victoria Yoon, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

No abstract provided.

A Decision Technology System To Advance The Diagnosis And Treatment Of Breast Cancer, Guisseppi A. Forgionne, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

Geographical variations in cancer rates have been observed for decades. Described spatial patterns and trends have provided clues for generating hypotheses about the etiology of cancer. For breast cancer, investigators have demonstrated that some variation can be explained by differences in the population distribution of known breast cancer risk factors such as menstrual and reproductive variables (Laden, Spiegelman, and Neas, 1997; Robbins, Bescianini, and Kelsey, 1997; Sturgeon, Schairer, and Gail, 1995). However, regional patterns also may reflect the effects of Workshop on Hormones, Hormone Metabolism, Environment, and Breast Cancer (1995): (a) environmental hazards (such as air and water pollution), (b) …

Automatic Identification Of Time Series Features For Rule-Based Forecasting, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, Miles Kennedy

Monica Adya

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select and weight extrapolation techniques. Thus, it is dependent upon the identification of features of the time series. Judgmental coding of these features is expensive and the reliability of the ratings is modest. We developed and automated heuristics to detect six features that had previously been judgmentally identified in RBF: outliers, level shifts, change in basic trend, unstable recent trend, unusual last observation, and functional form. These heuristics rely on simple statistics such as first differences and regression estimates. In general, there was agreement between automated …

Government And Corporate Initiatives For Indian Women In It, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

Education of women severely lags behind that of men in many developing nations. Fewer girls go to school, tend to drop out earlier than boys, do not receive the same level of education as their male counterparts, and often choose careers that are female predominant (Kelly, 1987). Without exception, India is quite representative of these gender-biased phenomena in education. However, the recent explosion of offshore outsourcing market in India has created a new recognition regarding the role of women in technological careers. The Indian IT sector has seen a trend contrary to what most western nations are experiencing—predominance of women …

How Effective Are Neural Networks At Forecasting And Prediction? A Review And Evaluation, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy

Monica Adya

Despite increasing applications of artificial neural networks (NNs) to fore- casting over the past decade, opinions regarding their contribution are mixed. Evaluating research in this area has been difficult, due to lack of clear criteria. We identified eleven guidelines that could be used in evaluating this literature. Using these, we examined applications of NNs to business forecasting and prediction. We located 48 studies done between 1988 and 1994. For each, we evaluated how effectively the proposed technique was compared with alternatives (effectiveness of validation) and how well the technique was implemented (effectiveness of implementation). We found that eleven of the …

Data Warehousing, Data Mining, And Integrated Health Decision Support Systems: A Comprehensive Cancer Surveillance System Architecture, Guisseppi Forgionne, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya, Joseph Tan

Monica Adya

No abstract provided.

Bcas: A Web-Enabled And Gis-Based Decision Support System For The Diagnosis And Treatment Of Breast Cancer, Guisseppi A. Forgionne, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya, Joseph K. Tan

Monica Adya

For decades, geographical variations in cancer rates have been observed but the precise determinants of such geographic differences in breast cancer development are unclear. Various statistical models have been proposed. Applications of these models, however, require that the data be assembled from a variety of sources, converted into the statistical models’ parameters and delivered effectively to researchers and policy makers. A web-enabled and GIS-based system can be developed to provide the needed functionality. This article overviews the conceptual web-enabled and GIS-based system (BCAS), illustrates the system’s use in diagnosing and treating breast cancer and examines the potential benefits and implications …

Factors Influencing Girls' Choice Of Information Technology Careers, Monica Adya, Kate Kaiser

Monica Adya

Many western nations have experienced declining numbers of women in the information technology (IT) workforce (Trauth, Nielsen, & von Hellens, 2003). Between 1996 and 2002, women in the U.S. IT workforce declined from 41% to 34.9% (ITAA, 2003). This can hamper diversity and reduce the talent pool that can address needs of diverse end-users (Florida & Gates, 2002). Why do women choose IT careers or reject them? Multidisciplinary research on career genderization reveals gender imbalance (Trauth, Nielsen, & von Hellens, 2003). Career decisions against math, science, and technology (MST) are often made as early as age 11 without understanding long-term …

Pricing Sensitive Information In Electronic Commerce, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

No abstract provided.

Rule Based Forecasting [Rbf] - Improving Efficacy Of Judgmental Forecasts Using Simplified Expert Rules, Monica Adya, Edward J. Lusk

Monica Adya

Rule-based Forecasting (RBF) has emerged to be an effective forecasting model compared to well-accepted benchmarks. However, the original RBF model, introduced in1992, incorporates 99 production rules and is, therefore, difficult to apply judgmentally. In this research study, we present a core rule-set from RBF that can be used to inform both judgmental forecasting practice and pedagogy. The simplified rule-set, called coreRBF, is validated by asking forecasters to judgmentally apply the rules to time series forecasting tasks. Results demonstrate that forecasting accuracy from judgmental use of coreRBF is not statistically different from that reported from similar applications of RBF. Further, we …

Corrections To Rule-Based Forecasting: Findings From A Replication, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that combines forecasts from simple extrapolation methods based on features of time series. In this study, we provide corrections to ten of the 99 rules contained in RBF. These corrections were identified during a replication of RBF. Empirical comparisons indicate that the corrections did not lead to a noticeable improvement in accuracy when tested against some of the original data. However, in light of the fact that several studies are extending the work on RBF, it is important to report on these corrections to RBF.

Managing The Psychological Contract For Improved Knowledge Sharing: The Role Of Human Resource Management, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

No abstract provided.

Cancer Surveillance Using Data Warehousing, Data Mining, And Decision Support Systems, Guisseppi A. Forgionne, Aryya Gangopadhyay, Monica Adya

Monica Adya

This article discusses how data warehousing, data mining, and decision support systems can reduce the national cancer burden or the oral complications of cancer therapies, especially as related to oral and pharyngeal cancers. An information system is presented that will deliver the necessary information technology to clinical, administrative, and policy researchers and analysts in an effective and efficient manner. The system will deliver the technology and knowledge that users need to readily: (1) organize relevant claims data, (2) detect cancer patterns in general and special populations, (3) formulate models that explain the patterns, and (4) evaluate the efficacy of specified …

Decomposition As A Complex-Skill Acquisition Strategy In Management Education: A Case Study In Business Forecasting, Monica Adya, Edward Lusk, Moncef Balhadjali

Monica Adya

Graduate business education has been criticized for utilizing simplistic teaching strategies that compromise the presentation of real-world complex skills in the classroom. In this article, we propose that complex management functions can be effectively taught using decomposition strategies. We demonstrate the usefulness of this strategy in the domain of business forecasting by comparing the forecast accuracy of students instructed in decomposition (RBF-Instructed) with that of students not exposed to such instruction (Uninstructed), as well as with an expert system called Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF). RBF-Instructed students demonstrated significant improvements over Uninstructed students and were at least as …