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Hindsight Bias And The Evaluation Of Strategic Performance, Roy B. Johnson

Mountain Plains Journal of Business and Technology

"This article reviews the literature on hindsight bias and applies it to the context of strategic performance evaluation. Hindsight bias, the tendency for people to view an event as more foreseeable after the event than prior to the event, is a well-documented cognitive bias. In evaluating the quality of the processes by which strategic decisions are made, evaluators are aware of the outcomes of these decisions and, therefore, are subject to the distorting effects of hindsight bias. Preventative measures are reviewed and recommendations for further research suggested."