Business Commons^™

Incorporating Financial Statement Information To Improve Forecasts Of Corporate Taxable Income, Danielle H. Green, Erin E. Henry, Sarah M. Parsons, George A. Plesko

WCBT Faculty Publications

We contribute to the research on the information content of earnings as it applies to the forecasting of economic activity across reporting models. We examine whether publicly available financial statement information is incrementally useful in forecasting confidentially reported taxable income. More precise firm-level taxable income forecasts can improve policymakers’ modeling of the tax system and their ability to analyze the effect of proposed changes in corporate tax law. When aggregated, improved micro-forecasts can also yield more accurate macro-forecasts of corporate taxable income, a significant component of the federal budget. We find that financial statement information improves firm-level estimates of future …