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Using Predictive Analytics To Detect Major Problems In Department Of Defense Acquisition Programs, Austin W. Dowling

Theses and Dissertations

This research provides program analysts and Department of Defense (DoD) leadership with an approach to identify problems in real-time for acquisition contracts. Specifically, we develop optimization algorithms to detect unusual changes in acquisition programs’ Earned Value data streams. The research is focused on three questions. First, can we predict the contractor provided estimate at complete (EAC)? Second, can we use those predictions to develop an algorithm to determine if a problem will occur in an acquisition program or subprogram? Lastly, can we provide the probability of a problem occurring within a given timeframe? We find three of our models establish …