Business Commons^™

Kalman Filter Vs Alternative Modeling Techniques And Applied Investment Strategies, Heather E. Dempsey

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This thesis examines the efficacy of alternative modeling techniques to predict stock market returns modeled with time-varying coefficients with the goal of developing and implementing a trading strategy that yields excess returns. First, we determine the modeling technique with the smallest forecast error using historical predictors: the differenced dividend-price ratio, lagged S&P 500 returns, and the change in implied volatility. The candidate modeling techniques include both constant and recursive ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methods and diverges from previous return forecast literature with the comparison of a state-space model (SSM) cast as a VAR(1) process to each OLS technique. The …

A Bayesian Approach To Assessing The Risk Premium On Catastrophe Bond Derivatives At Issuance, Dickson K. Nkwantabisa

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Catastrophe (CAT) bond pricing is a challenging task due to the uncertainty inherent in the incomplete market setting in which they operate as such various pricing approaches have been proposed. In this paper, we offer an alternative Bayesian methodology which is a natural approach in the context of uncertainty. Our Bayesian model is highly flexible and can be implemented under different model assumptions without losing generalization. We develop an entire Bayesian framework to model the two fundamental sources of risks in CAT bond pricing – catastrophe and interest rate risks. Using a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process model (Teh et al., 2006), …

Analysis Of Key Factors That Impact Large Cap Us Firms’ Financial And Market Performance At Different Phases During The 2007- 8 Financial Crisis, Ken Lobo

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

The financial crisis of 2007-8 provides an opportunity to investigate which factors have a significant impact on firms at different stages of the crisis. This paper considers this shock event along these lines: impact of leverage on a firm can vary depending on timing of the crisis; firm are challenged to invest as the crisis recedes; revenue growth can enhance and sometimes impede returns; choosing to hold cash or not when a firm make the trade-off with investment and both the timing and decision are important; investors, managers and shareholders perceive these actions and events differently. Large cap US firms …

Which Financial Measures Can Be Leveraged To Help Close The Unfunded Liability Gap For State Pension Plans?, Selette M. Jemison

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

The main purpose of this study is to identify the key determinants of the unfunded liability (UL) for state and local public Defined Benefit (DB) pension plans. The UL is a measure of pension debt in plans across the U.S. This debt continues to rise while pension obligations to current and future retirees must also be satisfied. The UL is derived by subtracting the market value of plan assets from its accrued liabilities. If assets are less than liabilities, it signals a lack of funds set aside to cover all pension benefits and generates what is known as an unfunded …

Cfo Compensation And Public Company Audit Fees: A Study Of Relationships And Influence On Audit Pricing, Charles T. Fagan

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

From the Introduction:

In corporate America, most executives have multiple forms of compensation ranging from a base salary, which is fixed, to annual and multi-year bonuses, which are normally tied to some performance based metrics; to longer-term incentives such as stock options, stock grants, restricted stock units (RSUs) and other forms of equity-based compensation. Aside from a base salary within normal ranges, all other forms of compensation are normally meant to incentify an executives’ behavior to work in the best interest of the company and its shareholders. At least, that is the theory on incentive-based compensation.

It is quite common …

The Convenience Yield Determinants Of Corn Futures, Christopher R. Delong

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the convenience yield determinants of corn futures. The estimated spot price and convenience yield are derived from Gibson and Schwartz’s (1990) two-factor model, and a deterministic seasonal component is added to the convenience yield. Numerous potentially novel determinants are regressed against the convenience yield while controlling for the spot price. The spot price is highly significant in all univariate regressions and is the main driver of changes in convenience yield. This research confirms the theory of storage, provides conflicting results regarding net hedging pressure, shows significant results for novel determinants, and proves that …

The Initial Public Offering Quandary: Is There A State And Time Dependency?, Michael D. Herley

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Initial public offerings (IPOs) continue to play a critical role in the capital markets and the overall economy. With the total number of IPOs remaining considerably below historic levels, developing a more thorough understanding of their drivers and how they vary under different conditions could benefit market participants and regulators. In this dissertation, I consider the relevant academic literature and extend the paradigm that stock market growth positively influences IPO activity, and market volatility tempers IPO volume—while also accounting for the present instability in the data through a regime-switching3 approach.

I will show that the interplay of the Chicago Board …

Capital Allocation Imbalance And The Effects On Monetary Policy, Peter G. George

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper examines the association between liquidity injections and capital allocations in the United States. In the analysis, liquidity injections are proxied by monetary base and the capital allocations are reflected by excess reserves, vault cash, total bank credit, and M2-M1. Monthly data are utilized for all variables for the sample period March 1984 – June 2020. Four Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint regressions and Markov switching estimations are employed to examine changeable patterns and interactions. The results indicate that liquidity injections are imbalanced and are allocated to total bank credit prior to quantitative easing, excess reserves prior to QE through post-QE, …

Global Recognition Of Sustainable Companies And The Search For Meaningful Returns, Jenny Gyurova Hite

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

Can an investor realize meaningful returns by choosing sustainability? Global Knights publishes an annual 100 Global Most Sustainable companies list which has been announced each January in Davos, Switzerland since 2005. This paper examines the global recognition of the US sustainable companies which make that list and the presence of cumulative abnormal returns of their portfolio. Event study methodology is used to assess short and long term cumulative abnormal returns of a dynamic portfolio updated annually over 16 years to include those names. Standard Deviations and Sortino Ratios are evaluated to determine the comparative level of risk a potential investor …

The U.S. Presidential Election Cycle And Stock Market Returns, Georginus Ejiofor Ugwu

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper analyzes the relationship between the presidential election year and the stock market returns in the United States by examining the monthly returns of the Standard &Poor’s 500 stock index from January 1959 to December 2019. In essence, I test whether stock market returns improve during presidential election year, consistent with the political business cycle (PBC) and its later offshoot, the ‘presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis, which assumes that incumbent presidents and their parties improve economic growth and the stock market outlook by embracing expansionary macroeconomic policy. I employ the Least Squares Regression tests on monthly S&P 500 index …