Business Commons^™

Handwringing Over How To Slice The Pie When Ustr Should Be Focused On Growing It, Christine Mcdaniel

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) recently released its report on the distributional effects of trade and trade policy on U.S. workers and “underrepresented and underserved communities.” The report catalogs a host of information gathered from a literature review and several roundtables on the adverse effects of U.S. manufacturing imports. But the report’s laser focus on manufacturing imports leaves a huge gap for readers interested in the distributional effects of trade.

Manufacturing imports are an important part of trade, but they aren’t all of trade. Trade is imports and exports, goods and services, inputs and final goods. Trade is manufacturing, …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: November 30, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N fell by 0.12% in October 2022. The leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic growth six months in the future, has fallen in four of the last six months. Such a decline signals a stagnant economy in Nebraska at the beginning of 2023. Four components of the leading indicator worsened during October. There was an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance, signaling some softening of the Nebraska labor market. There was also an increase in the value of the U.S. Dollar in October. A rising dollar creates challenges for Nebraska businesses that compete in international markets. …

“Friendshoring,” Ag Markets, North American Integration Among Issues Examined At Yeutter Institute Symposium, Geitner Simmons

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

A Nov. 2, 2022, symposium sponsored by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Yeutter Institute brought together experts addressing a wide array of trade matters, including global ag market dynamics, North American economic integration and Asia-Pacific economic diplomacy. Among the key questions discussed:

— What complications arise for efforts to shift trade policy toward “friendshoring”?

— How well has North American economic integration fared in the wake of NAFTA and its successor, the USMCA?

— What factors, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are currently affecting agricultural markets and global food insecurity?

— What guideposts can best direct U.S. economic diplomacy …

Innovation In Futures Markets: Event Contracts, Speculation, And Hedging, Fabio Mattos

Cornhusker Economics

The CME Group has recently launched a new type of contract whose payoffs are based on specific events. These contracts are called event contracts but are also known as prediction contracts or information contracts. They are short-term contracts that expire at the end of each trading day. Traders can take positions in these contracts as they predict whether the price of a given asset will finish the trading day above or below a set value.

Discusses: How are they traded? Main characteristics of event contracts. Event contracts offered by CME group and event examples on October 21, 2022. Why were …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: October 26, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.34% in September 2022, after a small decline in July and August. The leading indicator is designed to predict economic growth six months in the future. A flat value for the indicator over the last three months signals a stagnant economy in Nebraska at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. Three components of the leading indicator improved during September. There was an increase in hours worked in the manufacturing industry. There was also a decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance and respondents to the September Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to …

With No Deterrent Effect, The Wto Dispute Settlement Crisis Leaves Us Exporters Exposed, Especially Us Agriculture, Christine Mcdaniel

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

The absence of a functioning Appellate Body at the World Trade Organization (WTO) leaves the dispute settlement mechanism weakened, and countries may be more likely to pursue their domestic policy goals in ways that restrict trade. Industries with relatively large export exposure like US agriculture will be particularly vulnerable in this new chaotic regime. The deterrent effect is more important than you think An integral part of the world trading system has been the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism, which enables the WTO to enforce the rules the Members signed up for. Knowing you could get sued in the WTO for …

On The Market For "Lemons": When Low Quality Does Not Drive High Quality Out Of The Market, Konstantinos Giannakas, Murray E. Fulton

Cornhusker Economics

In a research article published in Nature's Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s4l 599-020-00658-w) we identify the conditions under which the introduction of a low -quality product does not drive its high-quality counterpart out of the market but, instead, ends-up coexisting with it. Using a theoretical framework of heterogeneous consumers and producers in the context of a market for quality- ( or vertically-) differentiated products supplied by producers differing in their production efficiency, we show that the equilibrium quality configuration in a market depends on both the unobservability of product quality by consumers and the relative costs …

Perceptions Of The Economy And Employment In Nonmetropolitan Nebraska: 2022 Nebraska Rural Poll Results, Rebecca J. Vogt, Heather Akin, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bradley Lubben, L. J. Mcelravy, Timothy L. Meyer, Steven A. Schulz, Amanda Tupper

Nebraska Rural Poll

Most rural Nebraskans believe most of the listed economic items will become worse or much worse over the next 12 months when asked in May and June. Almost nine in ten think the following will become worse: inflation, gasoline or diesel fuel prices, grocery prices, and interest rates. In fact, at least four in ten rural Nebraskans believe the following items will become much worse in the next 12 months: gasoline or diesel fuel prices, inflation, grocery prices, and healthcare costs. The two items that had less than one-half believing they would become worse or much worse during the next …

The Storm In World Fertilizer Markets Continues, John C. Beghin

Cornhusker Economics

This article updates the recent article on world fertilizer markets by Beghin and Nogueira (2021), which noted the perfect storm affecting global fertilizer markets through high demand, droughts affecting fertilizer supply, high fossil energy prices, COVID 19-related supply-chain disruptions, and trade policies, all conspiring to elevate fertilizer nominal prices to levels not seen since 2008. In the last 10 months, the Ukraine-Russia war and associated trade sanctions have exacerbated the disruptions in fossil energy, grain, vegetable oil, and fertilizer markets already present in 2021. On the more hopeful side, some United States trade policy developments will help reduce US fertilizer …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 21, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N changed little in August 2022, falling by just 0.01%. The leading indicator is designed to predict economic growth six months in the future. As a result, the flat value for the indicator in August signals that economic growth in Nebraska will be slow at the beginning of 2023. Several components of the leading indicator worsened during August. First, there was a decrease in building permits for single-family homes, likely in response to rising interest rates. Second, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose during August, suggesting some softening of the state’s strong labor market. By contrast, positive business expectations …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: August 24, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N fell by 0.08% during July 2022. The decrease in the leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic activity six months in the future, signals that economic growth in Nebraska will be slow at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. The indicator declined for two primary reasons. First, there was an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar in July, creating challenges for agriculture, manufacturers, and other businesses that compete in international markets. Second, there was a decline in airline passenger counts in July, likely in response to large increases in airline ticket prices. …

Can Geopolitics Help Restore Missing Tools To The U.S. Trade Toolbox?, Matthew Schaefer

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

When U.S. trade negotiators and trade litigators seek to increase market access for U.S. goods and services abroad, they look in their toolbox to see what might be the best tool. The more well-stocked the toolbox, the more possibilities for increasing foreign market access. Today, when U.S. trade negotiators look in their toolbox, they see several traditional tools missing, specifically legally-binding, comprehensive (including tariff-cutting) regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) and large package deals within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Their trade litigator colleagues face a similar circumstance of missing traditional tools, specifically the loss of binding two-level dispute …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: August 1, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.68% during June 2022. The increase in the leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic activity six months in the future, signals that the Nebraska economy will grow slowly through the end of 2022. The indicator improved for two primary reasons. First, there was an increase in manufacturing hours-worked during June. Second, respondents to the June Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment.

A General Equilibrium Assessment Of Covid-19’S Labor Productivity Impacts On China’S Regional Economies, Xi He, Edward J. Balistreri, Gyu Hyun Kim, Wendong Zhang

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

This study introduces a database for analyzing COVID-19’s impacts on China’s regional economies. This database contains various sectoral and regional economic outcomes at the weekly and monthly level. In the context of a general equilibrium trade model, we first formulate a mathematical representation of the Chinese regional economy and calibrate the model with China’s multi-regional input-output table. We then utilize the monthly provincial and sectoral value-added and national trade series to estimate COVID-19’s province-by-month labor-productivity impacts from February 2020 to September 2020. As a year-on-year comparison, relative to February 2019 levels, we find an average 39.5% decrease in labor productivity …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 25, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 1.85% during April 2022. The increase in the leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic activity six months in the future, signals that the Nebraska economy will continue to grow through the 4th quarter of 2022. The indicator improved for three primary reasons. First, there was a sharp increase in airline passenger enplanements in April as that industry continues to recover. Second, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell, signaling a strong Nebraska labor market. Third, respondents to the April Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment. There also was a modest …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: April 20, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.89% during March 2022. The increase in the leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic activity six months in the future, signals continued economic growth in Nebraska through the 3rd quarter of 2022. The indicator improved for two primary reasons. First, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell during March suggesting continued strength in the Nebraska labor market. Second, respondents to the March Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment. By contrast, building permits for single-family homes fell during the month. There also was an increase in the value of the U.S. …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: February 23, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.58% during January 2022. The increase in the leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic activity six months in the future, signals moderate economic growth in Nebraska through the summer of 2022. The indicator improved for three primary reasons. There were positive business expectations in January according to respondents to the monthly Survey of Nebraska Business. Initial claims for unemployment insurance also fell during the month as a sign of strength for the labor market. The value of the U.S. dollar also fell, which is helpful for Nebraska businesses that compete in international markets.

Inflation: Just How Bad Is It?, Timothy Meyer

Cornhusker Economics

Amidst the chaotic news cycle of politics, the pandemic, and global affairs, a new topic is making headlines – inflation. To some, rising inflation causes greater fear than the other headlines combined; to others, it is nothing more than a minor nuisance. This article will explain why people’s divisive attitudes toward inflation are likely justified.

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: February 2, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.73% during December 2021. The increase in the leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic activity six months in the future, signals moderate economic growth in Nebraska through June 2022. There were positive business expectations in December and an increase in building permits for single-family homes. Initial claims for unemployment insurance also fell during the month. Among declining indicators, there was a drop in manufacturing hours worked and airline passenger counts during December.

Mathematics Of Generalized Versions Of The Melitz, Krugman, And Armington Models With Detailed Derivations, Edward J. Balistreri, David G. Tarr

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

We provide detailed textbook style mathematical derivations of an extended version of the heterogenous firms model of Melitz (2003), as well as the Armington (1969) and Krugman (1980) models. Our model of heterogeneous firms extends the model of Melitz (2003) by allowing multiple sectors, intermediates, heterogeneous regions based on data, labor-leisure choice, initial heterogeneous tariffs, multiple factors of production, the possibility of sector-specific inputs and trade imbalances based on data, and we incorporate global and unilateral tariff policy shocks. Although the models in this paper are extensions in numerous directions of the Melitz trade model of heterogeneous firms, the pedagogical …

Views Of Well-Being In Nonmetropolitan Nebraska: 2022 Nebraska Rural Poll Results, Rebecca J. Vogt, Heather Akin, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bradley Lubben, L. J. Mcelravy, Timothy L. Meyer, Steven A. Schulz, Amanda Tupper

Nebraska Rural Poll

This year, rural Nebraskans are more pessimistic about their current situation than they’ve been in the past nine years. The proportion believing they are worse off than they were five years ago was 21 percent, up from the 11 percent reported last year. This is the highest level since 2013, when 26 percent believed they were worse off. This increase in pessimism did not translate into a decrease in optimism, however. This year, one-half of rural Nebraskans believe they are better off compared to five years ago, similar to 52 percent last year. The corresponding change occurred in a decrease …

Nonmetropolitan Nebraskans’ Opinions About Water, Climate, And Energy: 2022 Nebraska Rural Poll Results, Rebecca J. Vogt, Heather Akin, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bradley Lubben, L. J. Mcelravy, Timothy L. Meyer, Steven A. Schulz, Amanda Tupper

Nebraska Rural Poll

Most rural Nebraskans receive their home tap water from city water or municipal water systems. Just over two-thirds of rural Nebraskans receive their drinking water from a municipal system. One-quarter have private well water and seven percent are on a rural water system.

Many rural Nebraskans have tested their home tap water for nitrates. However, a similar proportion indicated they have not tested their water or are unsure. Persons with higher household incomes are more likely than persons with lower incomes to have tested their home water for each of the items listed. Many persons with the lowest household incomes …

Community Well-Being And Leadership In Nonmetropolitan Nebraska: 2022 Nebraska Rural Poll Results, Rebecca J. Vogt, Heather Akin, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bradley Lubben, L. J. Mcelravy, Timothy L. Meyer, Steven A. Schulz, Amanda Tupper

Nebraska Rural Poll

Rural Nebraskans are less positive about the current change and expected future change in their communities this year. The proportion believing their community has changed for the better has typically been greater than the proportion believing it has changed for the worse. However, last year the proportion believing their community changed for the worse was slightly more than the proportion believing it had changed for the better (similar to what occurred in 2003 and 2009). This year, that gap widened a bit.

Despite that, rural Nebraskans are positive about their community by many different measures. Most rural Nebraskans rate their …