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Economic Consequences Of Speculative Side Bets: The Case Of Naked Credit Default Swaps, Yeon-Koo Che, Rajiv Sethi

Yeon-Koo Che

We examine the effects of “naked” credit default swaps on equilibrium debt contracts, pro ject choice, and the likelihood of default when investors have heterogeneous beliefs about the future revenues of the borrower. Although such contracts are zero sum side bets, their existence can have important economic consequences. They induce investors who are most optimistic about the future revenues of borrowers, and would therefore be natural purchasers of debt, to sell credit protection instead. This diverts their capital away from potential borrowers and channels it into collateral to support speculative positions. The resulting shift in the terms of lending against …