Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 1 of 1
Full-Text Articles in Business
Forecasting Recessions In The U.S.A., Tran B. Ngoc
Forecasting Recessions In The U.S.A., Tran B. Ngoc
Masters Theses
Many economists have raised concerns about the next recession in the U.S., especially after the Great Recession in 2008. Many believe that the next recession will strike either this year (2019) or the next year (2020). This paper first analyzes different macroeconomic indicators such as Buffet Indicators, interest rate, unemployment rate, etc. In terms of modelling the data, a Probit model is applied to determine what variables can affect the probability of a recession. Then, going beyond whether or not a recession is likely at any time in future, a relevant question will be how long a time might elapse …