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St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 26, No. 1, King Banaian, Mana Komai Molle

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Area employment is expected to experience only a normal seasonal increase through mid-year. Survey results were slightly better than the most recent quarter. Significant pressures exist to increase wages, and in some cases firms did not think they could raise prices as well. Firms were evenly split between thinking affordable childcare and workforce housing were the most needed policies to address workforce needs.

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 25, No. 4, King Banaian, Mana Komai Molle

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Businesses reported worsening economic conditions in the last three months of 2023, but expressed optimism for the first half of 2024. Over the year on a seasonal basis, only 135 jobs (0.1%) were added to the economy. Four of six regional economic indicators pointed down. Only 60% of businesses surveyed reported the same operating hours as they had had in 2020; half of the remaining 40% said their hours were more flexible, while the other half decreased hours of operation. They also said one third of customers now had higher expectations of firm performance than 2020. Improvements in speed and …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 25, No. 3, King Banaian, Mana Komai Molle

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Business leaders reported stronger local results in the last St. Cloud Quarterly Business Survey. 31% said their business activity expanded over the summer, while 24% said it had declined. Hiring improved, with continuing strength in wages paid, capital spending and prices received for products. The future outlook is much murkier, with 41% saying their business activity would expand over the next six months while 28% it would decline. Four of the six elements of the St. Cloud Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose in the May-July 2023 period while two others declined. Two special questions determined that employers think their …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 25, No. 2, King Banaian, Mana Komai Molle

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

This report found confirmation from area business leaders that a recession is at hand. 68% of our respondents thought a recession was coming when surveyed in December 2022 and still believe so six months later. Survey respondents were concerned about financial tightening resulting from disruptions in the banking industry, but very few have changed banks, and most did not see those disruptions as a significant factor in bringing about a recession.

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 25, No. 1, King Banaian, Mana Komai

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud Area recession that we predicted in last quarter’s review had not started in the first quarter of 2023. The St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Survey showed fewer respondents reporting a decrease in their own business activity over the last three months, and more were positive about the next six months, than had responded in November 2022. The St. Cloud Index of Leading Economic Indicators ticked up slightly in the last quarter, with only 3 of 6 indicators contributing positively to the index. In special questions, one-third of respondents said job turnover in 2022 was greater than in …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 3, King Banaian, Mana Komai

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Drs. King Banaian and Mana Komai Molle discussed the strong employment situation in the St. Cloud MSA, led by the construction sector. The St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Survey showed weaker business activity in the last three months, and business leaders expect less growth in the next six months. There was a sharp difference of opinion among them about whether we were in a recession or soon entering on. In response to higher input prices, a majority believe those can be passed onto consumers, but a significant number reported smaller profit margins.

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 2, King Banaian, Mana Komai

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

St. Cloud area unemployment reached its lowest point since measurement began in 1990, registering at 1.8% in April 2022. Area economic growth was very strong in the months leading out of the Omicron wave of the pandemic, with a majority of survey respondents reporting higher business activity in the February to April period. Over 70% reported paying higher wages and charging higher prices for their goods and services. 5 of 6 leading indicators were positive. In special questions, more than 70% of surveyed businesses did not lay off workers but of those that did a majority did not return many …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 1, Richard A. Macdonald, King Banaian

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

As the pandemic subsides, the new year has ushered in a long awaited broad-based area economic expansion. Virtually all sectors of the area economy experienced employment growth as the area added more than 3,600 jobs over the year ending January 2022. Firms’ future outlook remains very strong, but is clouded by accelerating inflation (and accompanying wage pressures) and persistent labor shortages.

Data released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) indicate St. Cloud area employment increased 3.6% over the twelve months ending January 2022 (but is still 3,144 below its pre-pandemic level two years ago). Local job …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 4, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The economic recovery from the unrelenting COVID shock continues in the St. Cloud area as firms report an optimistic future outlook and employment grows. However, underlying this optimism are increases in wages, prices, capital expenditures, and worker shortages that may prove unsustainable in a post-COVID economy. Strong future optimism by surveyed firms is restrained by the reality that monetary and fiscal stimulus is abating perhaps faster than the pandemic.

Data released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) indicate St. Cloud area employment increased 2% over the twelve months ending October 2021, but still 4,493 (4%) below …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 3, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

St. Cloud area economic recovery has begun as year-over-year regional employment has grown and surveyed local firms project strong business activity. While the pandemic appears to have created scars in the local economy that plague some of our local service sectors, many area firms continue to report challenges that are typically associated with rapid expansion—labor shortages, price increases, accelerating wage growth, etc. Data released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) indicate St. Cloud area employment increased 4.3 percent over the twelve months ending July 2021. However, employment in the Stearns-Benton Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is still …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 2, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud area economy is poised to exit recession as a variety of indicators suggest a broad-based recovery is on the horizon. While year-over-year data comparisons are now complicated by the historic decline in economic activity that occurred twelve months ago, there are signs that the pace of local economic activity continues to improve for many area firms. The pandemic has created scars in the local economy that will likely persist for months and years to come, but many area firms now seem to be experiencing challenges that are typically associated with rapid expansion—labor shortages, price increases, accelerating wage …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 1, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Revised data released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) indicate St. Cloud area employment declined 6.5 percent over the twelve months ending January 2021. Area employment was 7,097 lower than one year earlier as the local recession continues into its second year. The pandemic has adversely affected nearly all local sectors—only the local construction center has experienced job growth over the past year. Ninety percent of the impact was felt in approximately one-half of area employment. For example, employment in the local leisure & hospitality sector was one-third lower over the past twelve months and the …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 22, No. 4, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud area economy remains in recession as the uneven effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to plague the local labor market. While some local sectors are experiencing uninterrupted strong growth, the virus’ impact on the leisure/hospitality and other services sectors is creating historic existential challenges for some area firms. Overall local employment was 3.4 percent lower in October 2020 than it was one year earlier, but this is a clear improvement from what was seen in the June St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report (at which time an 11.5 percent year-over-year decline in area employment was reported). The …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 22, No. 3, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

While some sectors of the local economy continue to be devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic, many area firms are now beginning to recuperate from this spring’s shockwaves. Overall local employment was 3.1 percent lower in July 2020 than it was one year earlier, but this is a clear improvement from what was seen in last quarter’s St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report (at which time we reported an 11.5 percent year-over-year decline in area employment). In addition, published job losses in the Twin Cities (and across the state) are considerably worse than what is seen locally. For example, Twin Cities …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 22, No. 2, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Events associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have driven the local economy into recession. As has been seen throughout the U.S. (and the world), the temporary closing of many area businesses has caused an economic shock that has torn through the entire economy. Nearly all data measures have turned south as the human toll of the coronavirus has extended beyond deaths and hospitalizations to unemployment, business closures, and uncertainty that spans virtually all sectors of the regional economy. St. Cloud area employment contracted 11.5 percent in April 2020 compared to one year earlier. All sectors of the local economy shed jobs, …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 22, No. 1, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud area economic outlook is clouded by the uncertain impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the local economy.

While traditional data measures suggest overall economic fundamentals in the region remain solid, there is considerable risk of plunging into significant negative territory over the duration of the coronavirus crisis.

Much of the data analyzed in this report are from January (which is the most recently available labor market data from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development) and survey results were collected from February 20-March 13, before Gov. Walz's order to close restaurants, theaters and other leisure …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 21 No. 4, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

St. Cloud-area employment rose 0.7% over the year ending October 2019. This job growth represents an increase in 780 area jobs over the past 12 months. The recent increase in employment is coincidentally of similar size as the loss of jobs that occurred when Electrolux closed its St. Cloud production facility at the beginning of November. This means recent local employment growth could be reversed when the November jobs numbers are released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development in mid-December.

St. Cloud once again outperformed both the state and Twin Cities in job growth over the past …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 21 No. 3, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Employment continued to rise in the St. Cloud area in recent months, but survey responses from area business leaders and other data measures point to slower future local economic growth. The slower growth will be further aggravated by the November closure of Electrolux, which in January 2018 employed 860 workers (representing about 0.8% of total area employment).

With year over year job growth of 1.5%, St. Cloud once again outperformed both the state and Twin Cities in job creation in July. The construction, manufacturing, transportation/warehousing/utilities, educational/health and financial activities sectors of the local economy led the way in employment gains, …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 21 No. 2, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

With year over year job growth of 2.1 %, St. Cloud outperformed both the state and Twin Cities in job creation. The construction, manufacturing, educational/health, financial activities and other services sectors of the local economy led the way in employment gains, while the retail trade, professional and business services and information sectors shed jobs. The future outlook of surveyed firms and the St. Cloud Index of Leading Economic Indicators point to continued growth over the next several months. The Nov. 1 closure of Electrolux is the biggest challenge facing the local economy. A summary of the estimated contribution of Electrolux …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 21 No. 1, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud area economy continued to create employment over the year ending January 2019 and surveyed firms express little concern that the area economy will enter recession this year.

With year over year job growth of 1.4 percent, St. Cloud was the state’s second best performing metropolitan area in creating jobs over the past year, lagging only Rochester. The construction, manufacturing, educational/health, and wholesale trade sectors of the local economy led the way in employment gains, while the retail trade, professional & business services, and leisure/hospitality sectors shed jobs.

The future outlook of surveyed firms is solid, and the …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 20, No. 4, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

After strong regional economic performance throughout 2018, area business leaders are preparing for slower growth and rising prices by the spring of next year. While growth is expected to slow, the area economy still remains on solid foundations as 2019 approaches. The continuing uncertainty over national trade policy, rising inflationary pressures (and associated increased interest rates), ongoing health insurance cost concerns and the looming future closure of Electrolux all create headwinds, however, that will likely cause the area economy to grow less rapidly in 2019. Current economic conditions over the past three months are strong as local employment grew at …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 20 No. 3, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Area firms reported strong economic conditions over the past three months as local employment grew at a 1.9 per­cent rate over the year ending July 2018. Results of the St. Cloud Area Business Outlook Survey indicate strong current business activity by area firms despite historic difficulty finding qualified workers. The six-month ahead future business activity outlook was weaker for surveyed firms as 30 percent offirms expect decreased business activity by February 2019. As the future closure of Electrolux approaches and the impact of national tariffs begins to be felt, the area economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty that …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 20 No. 2, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Despite heightened uncertainty from recent retail store closings, looming na­tional tariff policies and the future clo­sure of Electrolux, area firms continue to report strong optimism about future business activity. Area firms reported continuing difficulty attracting qualified workers, which appears to be restraining local employment growth. Local employ­ment grew at a tepid 0.4 percent rate over the year ending April 2018 as worker shortages limit firms' growth poten­tial. The manufacturing, education/health, wholesale trade, and transportation/warehousing/utilities sectors led local job growth, while the retail trade, mining/logging/construction, and leisure/hospitality sectors' employ­ment contracted.

A new St. Cloud Index of Leading Economic Indicators is unveiled …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 20, No. 1, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud area economic outlook has been clouded by the announced future mass layoff of workers at the St. Cloud Electrolux plant. The planned closing of this manufacturing facility is estimated to cause a job loss of 860 workers by the end of 2019.

While respondents to the St. Cloud Area Business Outlook Survey express concern about the economic impact of the upcoming plant closing, the future outlook of surveyed businesses is strong as we enter a time of the year in which the area economy typically enjoys seasonal strength.

Revised employment data suggest the area labor market was …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 19, No. 4, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

St. Cloud-area businesses continue to experience steady growth, and the local six-month-ahead economic outlook remains strong. Payroll data indicates overall St. Cloud metropolitan area employment grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate over the year ending October 2017. The construction sector once again led local job growth, followed by strong gains in wholesale trade and the educational and health sector employment. The financial activities, information, government, transportation/warehousing/utilities and re­tail trade sectors all experienced year-over-year job losses. The leading economic indicator series declined slightly over the last quarter. Surveyed firms indicate strong busi­ness activity in the current quarter with higher capital …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 19, No. 3, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Despite experiencing the worst worker shortages since the late 1990s, St. Cloud-area businesses continue to experience strong growth. Payroll data indicate overall St. cloud metropolitan area employment grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate over theyear ending July 2017, above the average annual job growth rate of 1 percent observed since 2002.

Once again the construction sector led the way with double-digit job growth, followed by strong gains in the wholesale trade as well as the educational and health sector. Similar to last quarter, the financial activities, manufacturing, information, and transportation/warehousing/utilities sectors all experienced year-over-year job losses.

The leading economic …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 19, No. 2, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

St. Cloud-area businesses report strong growth over the past three months, and the area's future outlook remains solid. Pay­roll data indicate overall St. Cloud metropolitan area employ­ment grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate over the year ending April 2017. This is more rapid than the average annual job growth rate of 0.9 of a percent observed since 2002.

Once again, the construction sector led the way with nearly double-digit job growth, followed by strong gains in the whole­sale trade and educational/health sectors. On the other hand the financial activities, transportation/warehousing/utilities, manu­facturing, information and leisure/hospitality sectors all experi­enced year-over-year job …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 19, No. 1, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

St. Cloud-area businesses report a strong future outlook as the area continues to experience solid economic performance. Revised payroll data indicates St. Cloud metropolitan area employment grew at a 1.3 percent annual rate over the year ending January 2017. This is more rapid than the average annual job growth rate of 0.8 percentage point observed since 2002. The construction sector led the way with double-digit growth, followed by strong gains in the wholesale trade and educational/health sectors. The leisure/hospitality and transportation/warehousing/utilities sectors were a drag on the overall employment numbers. The leading economic indicator series rose by 0.11 of a …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 18, No. 4, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

After a quarter in which local firms’ future outlook weakened considerably, the area economy appears to have rebounded in recent months.

Despite some anecdotal evidence of recent regional layoffs, quantitative and qualitative indicators of local economic performance point to improved future conditions in the St. Cloud area. Even though the St. Cloud area labor force was reported to have declined over the past 12 months, area payroll employment (this is obtained from a different source of data than the labor force measure) grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate.

Construction, retail trade and educational and health sectors once again led …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 18, No. 3, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Despite strong employment growth in the St. Cloud area, local firms’ future outlook has weakened considerably in recent months. Employment grew 2.9 percent over the past 12 months, demonstrating the area’s ability to create jobs in the midst of a regional labor shortage. Construction, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and educational and health sectors led the area in employment growth while manufacturing, wholesale trade, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and information industries shed jobs. The leading economic indicator series fell 0.42 percent in the last quarter. Surveyed firms are less optimistic about future business activity. Local firms expect …