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Full-Text Articles in Business
Application Of The Fractional Diffusion Equation For Predicting Market Behaviour, Jonathan Blackledge
Application Of The Fractional Diffusion Equation For Predicting Market Behaviour, Jonathan Blackledge
Articles
Most Financial modelling system rely on an underlying hypothesis known as the Eficient Market Hypothesi (EMH) including the famous BlackScholes formula for placing an option. However, the EMH has a fundamental flaw: it is based on the assumption that economic processes are normally distributed and it has long been known that this is not the case. This fundamental assumption leads to a number of shortcomings associated with using the EMH to analyse financial data which includes failure to predict the future volatility of a market share value. This paper introduces a new financial risk assessment model based on Levy statistics …
Two Essays On The Impact Of Rational And Irrational Investor Sentiments On Equity Market Return And Volatility: Evidence From The U.S. And Brazil, Pablo Javier Calafiore
Two Essays On The Impact Of Rational And Irrational Investor Sentiments On Equity Market Return And Volatility: Evidence From The U.S. And Brazil, Pablo Javier Calafiore
Theses and Dissertations - UTB/UTPA
This dissertation consists of two essays on how investor sentiments affect the returns and volatility of the Brazilian stock market. Both essays share a similar methodological approach. The first one analyzes the effect of investor sentiments on the returns and volatility of the Brazilian stock market using a model that accounts for fundamentals (rational) and noise components (irrational) of investor sentiments on the Sao Paulo leading index Bovespa. This research finds a statistically significant positive (negative) impact of rational (irrational) sentiments on market returns. Moreover, there are statistically significant impacts of irrational components of the sentiment indexes on Bovespa volatility …
Proliferation Of Tail Risks And Policy Responses In The Eu Financial Markets, Lucjan Orlowski
Proliferation Of Tail Risks And Policy Responses In The Eu Financial Markets, Lucjan Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
This study draws attention to the proliferation of tail risks in financial markets prior to and during the course of the recent global financial crisis. It examines the level of tail risks in selected equity, interbank lending and foreign exchange markets in selected EU Member States in relation to the United States. The extent of tail risks is assessed by applying general error distribution (GED) parameterization in GARCH volatility tests of the examined variables. The empirical tests prove that tail risks were pronounced across all of the examined European financial markets throughout the crisis. They were also significant prior to …