Business Commons^™

Ai-Nvesting: An Empirical Analysis With Sector Categorization And Prompt Complexity Considerations Assessing The Predictive Power Of Chatgpt In Stock Market Forecasting, Ian J. Larson

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

This paper investigates whether ChatGPT has any predictive power when it comes to the stock market. Since its public release in December 2022, OpenAI’s ChatGPT has become a popular tool for millions of users across the world. With new use cases being found every day, I explore whether the system has any utility at predicting where stock prices will go. Using a 10-year study window, I prompt ChatGPT to give U.S. equity picks on a one-year holding period basis, segregating its picks into 3 different category sizes across 8 directed prompts. I examine the 24 equal weight portfolios of …

The Impact Of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy On Sector Etf And Market Cap Etf Performance, Maverick J. Boring

Honors College Theses

This study explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy changes on returns and volatility of U.S. equity markets, including large cap, mid cap, and small cap as well as the eleven sectors of the S&P 500. Federal Reserve policy changes in this study are measured by changes in the federal funds target rate. To measure the impact of these rates on U.S. equity markets, I construct a longitudinal dataset inclusive of exchange traded funds (ETFs) that serve as proxies for all eleven sectors, as well as one index and two ETFs that capture the performance of small, mid, and large …

Ceo’S Tweets And Firm Stock Returns: A Case Study Of Elon Musk And Tesla, Jauron Gunther Dam

Honors College Theses

This research study explores the relationship between a CEO’s public statements and a firm’s abnormal stock returns by focusing on the case study of Elon Musk’s tweets and Tesla’s stock price over the course of 2021. A longitudinal dataset is constructed by analyzing how the information contained in tweets affected Tesla’s short-run stock price. The textual data is analyzed based on CEO tweets, the daily frequency of tweets, explicit and implied fundamentals, and sentiment. The content of Elon Musk’s publications may lead TSLA to have abnormal returns. The tweets are able to capture influences from fundamentals and psychology. When Elon …

Index Funds And Etfs: Simplifying Investing For Better Returns, Patrick J. Cotton

Honors Theses and Capstones

No abstract provided.

Behavioral Finance For The Individual Investor, Drake Gens

Senior Honors Theses

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has been generally accepted in academia despite its well-researched flaws; by understanding how and when markets deviate from efficiency, investors have an opportunity to not only better understand their investing habits, but also possibly generate higher investment returns. Various market anomalies, such as the Value Effect (De Bondt & Thaler, 1985), the Monday Effect (French, 1980), and the January Effect (De Bondt and Thaler, 1958 & 1987), attest to the fact that markets experience periods of deviation from efficiency. Fiévet and Sornette (2016) finding that markets experience inefficiency during periods of significant volatility is confirmed …

Essays On Investments And Real Estate Finance, Shahedur Rahaman Chowdhury

Theses and Dissertations

Essay I examines the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in explaining the explosive behavior or price exuberance in the US local housing markets. Using monthly observations between November 1997 and December 2016 we employ the double recursive approach from Philips et al., (2015) to identify the emergence of price exuberance in each of the 291 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the sample. Our estimations results show that population and income per capita have a significant positive effect on price exuberance, while unemployment rate and fixed mortgage interest rate have a negative effect. The marginal impacts of these macro fundamentals on housing …

Performance Of Islamic Stocks Versus Conventional Stocks During Crisis And Non Crisis Period: Evidence From Mena Region., Eshraq Abou El Enein

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the performance of both Islamic and conventional stocks, and to investigate whether the Islamic filtering criteria acts as a shield of protection for investors during crisis or not, based on a panel sample of 12 countries in the MENA region covering 10 different sectors from 1998-2018. Using panel fixed effect regression. We divided out sample into three periods; 1998-2006 pre-crisis period, 2007-2008 crisis period and 2009-2018 post crisis period. Our main finding is that the filtering criteria has a positive relation with the returns significant for the post crisis period and positive …

Healthcare Stocks And Presidential Elections, Jake Yennaco

Honors Theses and Capstones

In this study I examine the impact presidential elections have had on health care stock returns. Through my own data collection and analysis, I sought to examine the performance of stocks across election cycles in addition to the performance of healthcare stocks across election cycles. Using data from 1998-2019 I find that 1.) In election years, the stock market underperforms relative to non-election years; 2.) Healthcare stocks underperform the broader market during election years; 3.) The impact on healthcare stocks is consistently poor in election years yet contained to only that year; 4.) The Presidential Election Cycle, stating that stocks …

Understanding Volatility: An Analysis Of The Stock Market Return-Variance Correlation, Richard Traub

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper attempts to explain the negative correlation between stock market returns in the United States (measured by the risk premium of the S&P 500 Index) and the respective volatility of these returns. The academic research regarding two primary schools of thought on this issue, the volatility feedback effect and the leverage effect, is furthered as potential explanations for this phenomenon. A tertiary explanation relating to investor behavior is also explored as a viable cause. In order to empirically study this relationship, I examine the risk premium quintiles and the corresponding CBOE Volatility Index levels for the time-series dating from …

Predictability Of Mid-To-Long Term Price Direction Following Price Shocks Unassociated With Regularly Scheduled Earnings Calls In Domestic Equity Markets, Noah Braden

Undergraduate Theses

This thesis examines the question of whether a company’s stock classification as either growth or value, as indicated by its trailing twelve-month price-to-equity (TTM P/E) ratio or price-to-tangible-book value (TTM PTBV) ratio, has an impact on the price retracement toward, or continued divergence from the previous fair market value of the stock subsequent to a market-moving event uncorrelated with a 10-K or 10-Q filing by the company of interest. The categorization of growth versus value is non-binary and dependent on each firm’s TTM P/E ratio and TTM PTBV ratio (in a secondary model), with a higher ratio in both cases …

Effects Of Bonds & Fed Funds On The Stock Market, Josh Nelson, Mason Koch

Student Scholarship - College of Business

This paper is to investigate the relationship that Treasury bonds and Fed Funds have with the stock market. This research is valuable because the stock market is a major aspect of America’s economy, although many consider it unpredictable and difficult to understand. The goal of our research is to lessen this unpredictability, as well as to assess the inverse relationship that hypothetically exists between the stock market, bonds and Fed Funds. By employing an OLS regression model, this study finds the effect of Fed Funds is statistically and economically significant with regard to the stock market, also having the predicted …

Financial Analysis With Artificial Neural Networks Short-Term Stock Market Forecasting, Andrew Linzie

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Excerpt from Introduction

Seldom reward is absent from risk, and stock markets are a prime example. Stock markets across the world are viewed as profitable and risky at the same time. Companies have made a business out of forecasting these markets. Quantitative analysis companies use mathematicians, financial analysts, and computer scientists to compete in the stock market. The old days of floor trading have progressed towards high-frequency trading with supercomputers housed within the exchange. For example, the New York Stock exchange has created regulations for these companies so that there’s competitive equality. The computer’s power, length of cable to the …

Investment Strategies Amongst Property And Casualty Insurance Companies, Ryan J. Conforti

Honors Scholar Theses

The purpose of this work is to take an in-depth look into the investment side of property and casualty insurance. Many P&C companies have thrived over the past century, and much of this success can be attributed to investment income. This thesis will examine how investment philosophy changes from firm to firm, while also looking at how strategies have changed over time. It will also look into the insurance “float,” and examine how investors such as Warren Buffett have utilized this instrument to their favor. Investing is a huge aspect of property and casualty insurance, and this piece will give …

Income Inequality And Stock Pricing In The U.S. Market, Minh T. Nguyen

Lawrence University Honors Projects

In this research, the effect of income inequality as measured by the share of national income going to the wealthiest 10% of the nation in the U.S. is assessed for its significance at explaining stock returns in the U.S from 1927 to 2012. Income inequality has always been an important economic indicator and it has the potential to become one of the fundamental sources of risk that affect stock prices. By utilizing the Fama-French three-factor model, this research obtains the inequality beta coefficient, and the inequality risk premium. In turn, the findings of this research suggest the existence of a …

Industry Comparison Of Executive Compensation And Equity Considerations, Louis Chan

Honors Theses and Capstones

No abstract provided.

Reit White Paper, Frederic Juillet

Frederic Juillet

Subject: Resulting from the recent financial crisis, this white paper discusses how to better defend shareholders’ investments in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) for the long-term and how to reduce volatility in the REITs market.

Wisdom From Warren Buffett, Todd A. Finkle

Todd A Finkle

An Analysis Of The Effects Of The Probability Of Informed Trading (Pin) On Corporate Diversification Discount And Ceo Pay-Performance Sensitivity : Evidence From China, Man Jin

Theses & Dissertations

This thesis includes estimating the probability of informed trading, PIN, developed by Easley, Kiefer and O’Hara (1996, 1997a, 1997b), for a large sample of listed firms in China from 2002 to 2008, and I use PIN to explore two independent research questions in corporate finance.

First, the probability of informed trading is applied to explain the discount in value for firms with diversified business operations. Although aiming to increase firm value, the corporate diversification decision usually results in a firm value discount, for a variety of reasons, one of which is the transparency problem. My study directly tests the relation …

Evaluating Economic Relationships Of Stapled And Traditional Australian Reits, Jaime Yong, David Allen, Lee Lim

Research outputs 2011

The number of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (AREITs) trading as stapled securities has grown significantly in the past ten years. Though this type of trust structure improves the income growth to investors, stapled AREITs are riskier relative to traditional AREITs that act primarily as holding companies of property assets. Academic literature on REIT characteristics has found that these assets have become less integrated with bonds and more with stocks. An increasingly mature AREIT market implies that prices of these assets have become more integrated with values of the underlying direct property investments. This study employs quarterly prices over 30 …

A Re-Examination Of Stock Repurchase In Usa, Hua Yang

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

Since the adoption of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Rule 10b-18 Safe Harbor for Issuer Repurchases in 1982, stock repurchases have been growing explosively. Extant literature has shed some light on the motivation behind companies' repurchase activities. The most popular beliefs include signaling undervaluation (Dann 1981, Vermaele 1981, Comment and Jarrell 1991), reducing free cash flow (Guay and Harford 2000, Jagannathan, Stephens and Weisbach 2000, Grullon and Michaely 2004), raising leverage ratio (Hovakimian, Opler and Titman 2001) and increasing earnings (Bens, Nagar, Skinner and Wong 2003).

Motivated by Stephens and Weisbach's (1998) research which found that companies on average …

The Effects Of Etf Splits On Returns, Liquidity, And Individual Investors, Susana Yu, Gwendolyn Webb

Department of Accounting and Finance Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the effects of stock splits from mutual funds splits and the QQQ split to 20 exchange traded funds (ETFs) that span a wide variety of indexes. The split sample is compared to a non-split control sample with similar characteristics between 2000 and 2006. The objectives of this study are to investigate whether the results are different between the split sample and the control sample; and whether these results are similar to other investment vehicles in the existing literature. Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines stock excess returns, total …

The Cross-Section Of Stock Return And Volatility, Hongchao Han

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

There has been increasing research on the cross-sectional relation between stock return and volatility. Conclusions are, however, mixed, partially because volatility or variance is modeled or parameterized in various ways. This paper, by using the Jiang and Tian (2005)'s model-free method, estimates daily option implied volatility for all US individual stocks from 1996:01 to 2006:04, and then employs this information to extract monthly volatilities and their idiosyncratic parts for cross-sectional regression analyses. We follow the Fama and French (1992) cross-sectional regression procedure and show that each of the 4 monthly measures of change of total volatility, total volatility, expected idiosyncratic …

Divergent Opinions And Value Stock Performance, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

Those who believe that capital markets—that is, markets for stocks and bonds—operate efficiently and asset prices fully reflect all publicly available information are engaged in an ongoing debate about the exact interpretation of the “value premium” with those who reject this view. Value premium refers to the superior returns generated by the purchase of value stocks relative to growth, or glamour, stocks. Rationalists, the group believing in market efficiency, argue that because value stocks are fundamentally riskier than growth stocks, the value premium is compensation for bearing risk. Behavioralists, the group arguing that market asset prices don’t reflect all publicly …

The Effects Of Local And Global Risk Factors On Industry Stock Returns: Across Country Analysis, Mahdy Farag Elhossiny

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation studies the local and global sources of risk and industries stock returns across national equity markets. We examine several local and global economic risk factors and ask whether and to what extent these risk factors can explain the variation in the industries' stock returns of five countries, namely Canada, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. Specifically, the main objective of this dissertation is to find answers for three main questions: First, whether and to what extent do returns on local industries respond to changes in local macroeconomic risk factors? Second, whether and to what extent do returns …

Style Effects In The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Melvyn Teo, Sung-Jun Woo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using CRSP stock and mutual fund data, we find strong evidence for reversals at the style level (e.g., large value, small growth, etc.). There are significant excess and risk-adjusted returns for stocks in styles characterized by the worst past returns and net inflows. We also find evidence for momentum and positive feedback trading at the style level. These value and momentum effects are driven neither by fundamental risk nor by stock-level reversals and momentum. Taken together, the results are consistent with the style-level positive feedback trading model of Barberis and Shleifer (2003).

Does Underwriter Reputation Affect The Performance Of Ipo Stocks?, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu, Junbo Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper we examine the relationship between performance of the Chinese IPO firms and the reputation of investment bankers underwriting their stocks. Similar to previous studies on well-developed stock markets, we find that the initial return on the first day of trading is strongly positive for Chinese IPO stocks due to underpricing. This initial return is negatively related to the underwriter's reputation, suggesting that the better the reputation of the underwriter, the less underpricing and hence, the lower the initial return of the IPO stock. Extending the analysis to a ten-day window after the first trading day, we find …

M-Garch Hedge Ratios And Hedging Effectiveness In Australian Futures Markets, Wenling Yang

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

This study deals with the estimation of the optimal hedge ratios using various econometric models. Most of the recent papers have demonstrated that the conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) method of estimating constant hedge ratios is inappropriate, other more complicated models however seem to produce no more efficient hedge ratios. Using daily AOIs and SPI futures on the Australian market, optimal hedge ratios are calculated from four different models: the OLS regression model, the bivariate vector autoaggressive model (BVAR), the error-correction model (ECM) and the multivariate diagonal Vcc GARCH Model. The performance of each hedge ratio is then compared. The …

The Information Content Of Standard & Poor's Common Stock Ranking Changes, James Felton

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the information content of Standard & Poor's common stock ranking changes. These rankings are derived from a system which begins with a computer-generated score for per-share growth, stability, and cyclicality of earnings and dividends for the most recent ten years of available data. Standard & Poor's then makes adjustments to the scores based on firm size, sales volume, "relative current standing,'1 and special considerations. The eight rankings are as follows: A+ (Highest), A (High), A- (Above Average), B+ (Average), B (Below Average), B- (Lower), C (Lowest), and D (In Reorganization). Although the rankings are not purported to …