Business Commons^™

Tail Risk Hedging: The Search For Cheap Options, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The authors find that a simple heuristic of sorting liquid equity options by dollar price to construct a portfolio of cheap put options leads to a surprisingly robust hedge for tail risk – the superior performance holds even when compared against more advanced empirical strategies. Further investigation reveals the asymmetry in market correlation under different market conditions as the mechanism of this robust hedging performance. The cheap options selected by the heuristic comprises of stocks with diverse firm characteristics. The correlation spike accompanying tail risk events leads to the majority of these put options moving into-the-money (ITM), thus compensating the …

Hedging Cryptos With Bitcoin Futures, Francis Liu, Natalie Packham, Meng-Jou Lu, Wolfgang Karl Haerdle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The introduction of derivatives on Bitcoin enables investors to hedge risk exposures in cryptocurrencies. Because of volatility swings and jumps in cryptocurrency prices, the traditional variance-based approach to obtain hedge ratios may not be suitable for hedgers. In this work, we consider two extensions of the traditional approach: first, different dependence structures are modelled by different copulae, such as the Gaussian, Student-t, Normal Inverse Gaussian and Archimedean copulae; second, different risk measures, such as value-at-risk, expected shortfall and spectral risk measures are employed to find the optimal hedge ratio. Extensive out-of-sample tests using the data from the time …

The Impact Of Different Worldviews On The Financial Planning Process, Luke Osterhus

Senior Honors Theses

An individual's worldview has an effect on all aspects of their life. Worldview affects the decisions people make, the clothes they wear, the people they interact with, and so much more. What is often overlooked is the impact of worldview on one's view and use of money. Money is universal and everyone has some form of currency or assets. However, the way money is used, whether it is saved, spent, or invested, is often determined by an individual's own concept of money. Additionally, relationships between people are often chosen or influenced by an individual's worldview. Human beings are seen differently …

Cds Channels Of Influence On Discretionary Accruals, Hao Cheng, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Existing studies indicated that firm debt holders can use the credit default swap (CDS) market to hedge their credit risk, and thus they would reduce their monitoring of the firms, leading to largely distressed firms shirking and increasing positive abnormal earnings accruals. Besides providing insurance, however, the CDS spreads also perform price discovery of credit risk information sought by trade creditors and potential lenders who are not protected. High absolute abnormal discretionary accruals or bad earnings quality, especially negative abnormal accruals, would lead adverse CDS price signals that are very costly to the firm. This compels the firm under nondistressed …

Teres: Tail Event Risk Expectile Shortfall, Andrija Mihoci, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

We propose a generalized risk measure for expectile-based expected shortfall estimation. The generalization is designed with a mixture of Gaussian and Laplace densities. Our plug-in estimator is derived from an analytic relationship between expectiles and expected shortfall. We investigate the sensitivity and robustness of the expected shortfall to the underlying mixture parameter specification and the risk level. Empirical results from the US, German and UK stock markets and for selected NASDAQ blue chip companies indicate that expected shortfall can be successfully estimated using the proposed method on a monthly, weekly, daily and intra-day basis using a 1-year or 1-day time …

Corporate Social Responsibility And Ceo Risk-Taking Incentives, Zhichuan Li

Business Publications

We examine how firms adjust CEO risk-taking incentives in response to risk environments associated with their corporate social responsibility (CSR) standing. We find strong evidence that as a firm's CSR status improves (declines), increasing (decreasing) its risk-taking capacity, the firm responds by adjusting compensation contracts to increase (decrease) CEO risk-taking incentives (Vega). One channel of the adjustment is through stock option grants. Further analyses indicate that the positive CSR-Vega association is stronger in firms with better corporate governance and in industries where riskiness is more important. Our evidence indicates that firms are not passive in response to changes in CSR …

Derivative Initiative: Does The Use Of Financial Derivatives Influence Firm Value In The Philippine Context?, Julia Alfonso D. Arrastia, Christina Angela N. Balagot, Joseph Anthony C. Go, Dominique Ann Philomena V. Lacuna

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Firms use financial derivatives as a way to hedge risky transactions to avoid financial risks. Studies have focused on firms’ use of financial derivatives in developed countries. However, there is limited research done on emerging markets like the Philippines because these economies have only recently adapted advanced reporting standards that obligate the disclosure of the nature and extent of risks resulting from the use of financial instruments. We used Tobin’s Q ratio to proxy for firm value and determine the presence of a hedging premium. Because derivatives are used by firms to hedge against currency risks, interest rate risks, and …

Swaption Portfolio Risk Management: Optimal Model Selection In Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We formulate a risk-based swaption portfolio management framework for profit-and-loss (P&L) explanation. We analyze the implication of using the right volatility backbone in the pricing model from a hedging perspective, and demonstrate the importance of incorporating stability and robustness measure as part of the calibration process for optimal model selection. We also derive a displaced-diffusion stochastic volatility (DDSV) model with a closed-form analytical expression to handle negative interest rates. Finally, we show that our framework is able to identify the optimal pricing model, which leads to superior P&L explanation and hedging performance.

Compensation Clawback Policies And Corporate Lawsuits, Matteo Arena, Nga Nguyen

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the relation between compensation clawbacks and lawsuits and analyze how these two corporate disciplinary forces interact. This paper hypothesizes that by allowing firms to recoup compensation from managers who breach their fiduciary duty, clawbacks provide a form of discipline that potentially reduces the likelihood of managerial wrongdoing, which, in turn, lowers the risk of corporate lawsuits.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper identifies whether or not a company in the S&P 1500 had a clawback policy between 2007 and 2014 by searching the company filings and press releases. The authors also construct different proxies …

Managing Swaption Portfolio Risk Under Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Efficient risk managing of swaption portfolios is crucial in the hedging of interest rate exposure. This paper formulates a portfolio risk management framework under stochastic volatility models. The implication of using the right volatility backbone in the stochastic-alpha-beta-rho (SABR) model is analyzed. In order to handle negative interest rates, we derive a displaced-diffusion stochastic volatility (DDSV) model with closed-form analytical expression for swaption pricing. We demonstrate that the dynamics naturally allow for negative rates, and is also able to fit the market well. Finally, we show that choosing the right backbone in the DDSV model results in optimal hedging performance …

How Do Financial Institutions In China Mitigate Risks In Securitization Markets?, Tiantian Lyu

Honors College Theses

Asset securitization as the essential financial tool has increased the liquidity of underlying assets and promoted rapid economic development. In 2008, the outbreak of Subprime Mortgage Crisis that brought by the collapse of securitization triggered the U.S. securitization market to realize the risks involved in structured financial products, and thus facilitated the development of risk controlling tools. Through the analysis of securitization process, drivers, and credit rating agencies, the study concentrates on the formation of risks and modeling evaluation with evidence in both China and the U.S. markets. Statistical analysis was conducted on Chinese securitized products combining with risk management …

The Paradoxes Of Risk Management In The Banking Sector, Chu Yeong Lim, Margaret Woods, Christopher Humphrey, Jean Lin Seow

Research Collection School of Accountancy

This paper uses empirical evidence to examine the operational dynamics and paradoxical nature of risk management systems in the banking sector. It demonstrates how a core paradox of market versus regulatory demands and an accompanying variety of performance, learning and belonging paradoxes underlie evident tensions in the interaction between front and back office staff in banks. Organisational responses to such paradoxes are found to range from passive to proactive, reflecting differing organisational, departmental and individual risk culture(s), and performance management systems. Nonetheless, a common feature of regulatory initiatives designed to secure a more structurally independent risk management function is that …

Misalignment: Corporate Risk-Taking And Public Duty, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

This article argues for a “public governance duty” to help manage excessive risk-taking by systemically important firms. Although governments worldwide, including the United States, have issued an array of regulations to attempt to curb that risk-taking by aligning managerial and investor interests, those regulations implicitly assume that investors would oppose excessively risky business ventures. That leaves a critical misalignment: because much of the harm from a systemically important firm’s failure would be externalized onto the public, including ordinary citizens impacted by an economic collapse, such a firm can engage in risk-taking ventures with positive expected value to its investors but …

The Mess At Morgan: Risk, Incentives And Shareholder Empowerment, Jill E. Fisch

All Faculty Scholarship

The financial crisis of 2008 focused increasing attention on corporate America and, in particular, the risk-taking behavior of large financial institutions. A growing appreciation of the “public” nature of the corporation resulted in a substantial number of high profile enforcement actions. In addition, demands for greater accountability led policymakers to attempt to harness the corporation’s internal decision-making structure, in the name of improved corporate governance, to further the interest of non-shareholder stakeholders. Dodd-Frank’s advisory vote on executive compensation is an example.

This essay argues that the effort to employ shareholders as agents of public values and, thereby, to inculcate corporate …

Regulating Systemic Risk In Insurance, Daniel Schwarcz, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

As exemplified by the dramatic failure of AIG, insurance companies and their affiliates played a central role in the 2008 global financial crisis. It is therefore not surprising that the Dodd-Frank Act—the United States’ primary legislative re-sponse to the crisis—contained an entire title dedicated to insurance regulation, which has traditionally been the responsibility of individual states. The most important insurance-focused reforms in Dodd-Frank empower the Federal Reserve Bank to impose an additional layer of regulatory scrutiny on top of state insurance regulation for a small number of “systemically important” nonbank financial companies, such as AIG. This Article argues, however, that …

The Bankruptcy-Law Safe Harbor For Derivatives: A Path-Dependence Analysis, Steven L. Schwarcz, Ori Sharon

Faculty Scholarship

U.S. bankruptcy law grants special rights and immunities to creditors in derivatives transactions, including virtually unlimited enforcement rights. This article argues that these rights and immunities result from a form of path dependence, a sequence of industry-lobbied legislative steps, each incremental and in turn serving as apparent justification for the next step, without a rigorous and systematic vetting of the consequences. Because the resulting “safe harbor” has not been fully vetted, its significance and utility should not be taken for granted; and thus regulators, legislators, and other policymakers—whether in the United States or abroad—should not automatically assume, based on its …

What Causes Bank Failures During The Recent Economic Recession?, Qingyu Li

Honors Projects

More than 400 banks failed during the recent financial crisis. Bank failures have a significant impact on the financial system and the economy as a whole. It is important to identify factors that may contribute to bank failures so that banks can take measures to reduce their default risk. This paper examines how bank specific characteristics and economic conditions affect bank failures during the recent financial crisis. We employ the logistic regression model to study this issue using the U. S. commercial bank data over the sample period 2007-2012. We find that the ratio of the loan and leases to …

Portfolio Value-At-Risk Optimization For Asymmetrically Distributed Asset Returns, Joel Weiqiang Goh, Kian Guan Lim, Melvyn Sim, Weina Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose a new approach to portfolio optimization by separating asset return distributions into positive and negative half-spaces. The approach minimizes a newly-defined Partitioned Value-at-Risk (PVaR) risk measure by using half-space statistical information. Using simulated data, the PVaR approach always generates better risk-return tradeoffs in the optimal portfolios when compared to traditional Markowitz mean-variance approach. When using real financial data, our approach also outperforms the Markowitz approach in the risk-return tradeoff. Given that the PVaR measure is also a robust risk measure, our new approach can be very useful for optimal portfolio allocations when asset return distributions are asymmetrical.

Delayed-Bang Approach Towards More Sustainable Critical Infrastructure Risk Management, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Abhishek S. Pathak

Finance Faculty Publications

This article describes the Delayed Bang Approach for determining the value of risk management alternatives in critical infrastructure security. The discussion includes (1) the need for sustainable risk management (2) the importance of time valuation in evaluating competing loss prevention and loss reduction alternatives, (3) the convergence of deterministic engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) hypothetical examples of the Delayed-Bang Approach and significance towards more sustainable risk management.

Black Swans And Retirement Strategies: Is “Buy And Hold Best”?, Barry Doyle, Robert Mefford, Nicholas Tay

Finance

The recent market crash which has led to as much as a 47% drop in the value of the S&P500 index has made some of us wonder if there is a cost effective way for us to hedge our retirement portfolios against such a drastic loss. Our objective is to investigate empirically the tradeoffs that will arise from using a protective put strategy for hedging retirement portfolios over an investment horizon that is long enough to be comparable to the average holding period for retirement portfolios

What Financial Risk Managers Can Learn From Six Sigma Quality Programs, Barry Doyle, Robert Mefford, Nicholas Tay

Finance

As the financial crisis of 2008 has revealed, there are some flaws in the models used by financial firms to assess risk. Credit, volatility, and liquidity risk were all inadequately modeled by supposedly sophisticated financial institutions employing dozens of financial engineers with advanced degrees. It is now clear that some of the underlying assumptions of the statistical models utilized were seriously flawed, and interactive and systemic effects were improperly modeled. Correcting these modeling flaws is one approach to preventing a reoccurrence. However, another approach is suggested by Six Sigma quality programs used in manufacturing and service industries. Some basic tenets …

Incorporating Value And Risk Management Principles In Developing Low-Income Housing Projects, Ayman Ahmed Ezzat Othman

Architectural Engineering

The construction industry is concerned with satisfying its customers’ needs through delivering projects that achieve their objectives and meet their expectations on time, within budget and as specified. Despite the several housing programmes constructed by government authorities, there is a real housing problem for the poor. This problem is attributed to a number of reasons. Amongst them, the inability of the low-incomers to cover the cost of supplied houses and the lack of the constructed projects to achieve users’ satisfaction. This highlighted the need to develop innovative and creative solutions that can deliver housing projects that achieve the satisfaction of …

The Effect Of Financial Hedging On The Incentives For Corporate Diversification: The Role Of Stakeholder Firm-Specific Investments, Sonya Seongyeon Lim, Heli Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Financial hedging and corporate diversification are often considered substitutive means of risk management, implying that rapid development of financial hedging markets will yield less need for firms to manage risk through costly diversification. Building on a stakeholder-based view of risk management, we show that financial hedging and corporate diversification are more often complementary than substitutive. Financial hedging reduces a firm’s systematic risk, encouraging firm-specific investment by stakeholders. Larger firmspecific investment loads excessive idiosyncratic risk on the stakeholders, increasing the benefits of reducing idiosyncratic risk through diversification. Therefore, financial hedging can increase a firm’s incentives to manage risk through diversification.

An Evaluation Of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return And Pitfalls, Francis Koh, David K. C. Lee, Kok Fai Phoon

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge funds are collective investment vehicles fast becoming popular with high net worth individuals as well as institutional investors. These are funds that are often established with a special legal status that allows their investment managers a free hand to use derivatives, short sell and exploit leverage to raise returns and cushion risk. Given that they have substantial latitude to invest, it is instructive to examine the performance of hedge funds as compared to other forms of managed funds. This paper provides an overview of hedge funds and discusses their empirical risk and return profiles. It also poses some concerns …