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- Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (9)
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Articles 1 - 30 of 30
Full-Text Articles in Business
Unusual Changes In The U.S. Treasury Security Market During The Fourth Round Of Quantitative Easing, Kyle D. Allen, Scott E. Hein
Unusual Changes In The U.S. Treasury Security Market During The Fourth Round Of Quantitative Easing, Kyle D. Allen, Scott E. Hein
Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations
The Covid-19 Pandemic and policy response rattled the US Treasury markets. Conventional US Treasuries, inflation adjusted US Treasuries, and the relationship between the two developed in ways such that ignoring changes in real interest rates yielded distorted inflation expectations estimates. Since the beginning of the pandemic, monetary policy kept nominal rates low and close to zero, but positive. Real rates, on the other hand, became increasingly negative. The relationship between the two market rates became negatively correlated, and distorted because of the fourth round of quantitative easing, along with the Fed preventing nominal yields from turning negative. Federal Reserve actions …
Survey Of Professional Forecasters 2023, Singapore Management University
Survey Of Professional Forecasters 2023, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
Forecasters Maintain Their Expectations for Growth in 2023 The forecasters see the U.S. economy in 2023 expanding at the same pace as they predicted three months ago, according to 38 panelists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict annual-average over annualaverage growth in real GDP of 1.3 percent in 2023, unrevised from their estimate of three months ago. The panelists are also maintaining their forecast for growth in the second quarter at an annual rate of 1.0 percent, unchanged compared with their previous projection. However, while their predictions for the second quarter and for 2023 remain …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5) were revised markedly relative to the prior release (pre-Russia-Ukraine conflict), generally indicating weaker growth and higher inflation coupled with incremental ambiguity on the policy front.
Inflation Expectations Can Be A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Aurobindo Ghosh, Khyati Chauhan, Muskan Bagrodia
Inflation Expectations Can Be A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Aurobindo Ghosh, Khyati Chauhan, Muskan Bagrodia
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, SMU postgraduate student and Research Assistant for the SInDEx Project Muskan Bagrodia and International Monetary Fund Economic Research Assistant Khyati Chauhan weighed in on why inflation expectations matter as much as economic data. They discussed how inflation expectations can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and shared the key takeaways of the quarterly DBS-Sim Kee Boon Institute’s Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (DBS-SKBI SInDEx) survey. They concluded that effective communication on inflation control measures, in addition to credible policy decisions, will help consumers feel assured and refrain from basing purchasing decisions …
Inflation And Ukraine War Make It Challenging For Our Beloved Value Stores To Survive, Aurobindo Ghosh, Taimur Baig
Inflation And Ukraine War Make It Challenging For Our Beloved Value Stores To Survive, Aurobindo Ghosh, Taimur Baig
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In a joint commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) and Principal Investigator of DBS-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations Project Aurobindo Ghosh and Chief Economist and Managing Director at DBS Bank Dr Taimur Baig discussed how global inflationary pressures and rising commodity prices due to war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are culminating into a perfect storm and making it challenging for value stores to survive. They also gave advice on what value stores can do to survive this perfect storm.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5), based on submissions prior to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, imply a more intricate growth, inflation and policy dynamic.
Decentralizing Money: Bitcoin Prices And Blockchain Security, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta
Decentralizing Money: Bitcoin Prices And Blockchain Security, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We address the determination of bitcoin prices and decentralized security. Users forecast the transactional and resale values of holdings, pricing the risk of systemic attacks. Miners contribute resources to protect against attackers and compete for block rewards. Bitcoin's design leads to multiple equilibria: the same blockchain technology is consistent with sharply different price and security levels. Bitcoin's monetary policy can lead to welfare losses and deviations from quantity theory. Price-security feedback amplifies fundamental shocks' volatility impact and leads to boom and busts unconnected to fundamentals. We characterize how viability versus fiat currency depends on bitcoin's relative acceptability and inflation protection.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results convey an upshift in growth projections of the five largest economies in aggregate accompanied by higher inflation, especially this year and to a lesser extent next year. The aggregate “Big5” median real GDP growth projections for 2021 and 2022 were raised to 6.7% (up in US, CN and EA but down in IN and JP) and 4.9% (all except US), respectively. The overall “Big5” median CPI inflation forecasts were nudged up to 2.6% (higher in US, IN and EA but lower in CN) and 2.4% (in US, IN and EA some), respectively, for this year and …
Squawking About Persistently Higher Inflation?, Thomas Lam
Squawking About Persistently Higher Inflation?, Thomas Lam
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
All signs point to an uncertain path for inflation in the future. While inflation is set to stay prospectively higher in the US in the near-term, it's unlikely to remain so.
Bitcoin As A Viable Alternative To Legacy Reserve Assets: Reasons, Risks, And Adoption, Jeffry Blake Dunson Ii
Bitcoin As A Viable Alternative To Legacy Reserve Assets: Reasons, Risks, And Adoption, Jeffry Blake Dunson Ii
Senior Honors Theses
Reserve assets include commodities, currencies, or other capital held by institutions as a hedge against the fluctuations of external factors. While the United States’ rise to power helped establish the US dollar as the most predominant reserve asset of the past fifty years, current events & the fast pace of technological advancement has exposed some limitations in the system. Blockchain technology has allowed for assets with cryptographically verifiable integrity that fundamentally depart from the US dollar standard and has potential to overhaul reserve assets as we know it. The course of this research details the downsides of legacy reserve assets, …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results suggest that the five largest economies collectively is projected to snapback to almost 6% in 2021, a modest upgrade from the August median, following an unprecedented preliminary contraction of roughly 4% last year (in real GDP terms). The 2022 median growth forecast of slightly above 4.5%, while slower, is still respectable, outstripping its pre-COVID 10-year average pace by more than half a percentage point. The aggregate upgrade in 2021, however, obscures the lopsided nature and highly uneven contour of the ongoing recovery. The bulk of the upward revision to growth was mainly due to IN (to …
Stock Market Correlations To Economic Indicators, Anthony K. Quandt
Stock Market Correlations To Economic Indicators, Anthony K. Quandt
Honors Theses
For this project, I researched how representative the S&P 500 (a common index of choice to represent the market) is of the economic well-being of the US. I found that stock market data can be used an as indicator of the economic well-being of the U.S.. The results do not indicate that the stock market leads to recovery, but it does suggest that it is correlated with recovery. In my analysis, I compared the S&P 500 performance to four different economic indicators: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Average Weekly Private Wages, and Unemployment Rate. A …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The COVID-19 pandemic led to whopping downward revisions to 2020 real GDP growth among the Big5 economies, on average greater than 7%-points (ranging from roughly 3.5%-points for China to more than 10%-points for India). The forecast revisions to headline inflation were less sizable and more uneven, perhaps because of the confluence of supply and demand influences. The 2021 median GDP forecast is expected to turn positive overall, with a balanced risk assessment for most of the Big5 (but a coin toss in IN and US), but the growth reversal is likely to be highly uneven. While China regains its prior …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest …
Simulations Illustrate Flaw In Inflation Models, Peter L. D'Antonio Ph.D.
Simulations Illustrate Flaw In Inflation Models, Peter L. D'Antonio Ph.D.
Faculty Works: Business (1973-2022)
This study questions the basic assumption of standard inflation models that there are only two forces driving price changes - underlying inflation and short-term noise. Specifically, the paper analyzes the distributions of individual price changes to shed light on an apparent contradiction: individual price changes are extremely dispersed, while measured inflation, the aggregate of individual price changes, remains relatively steady. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the standard inflation model is inconsistent with this observation. The author reintroduces a new inflation model that explicitly accounts for the possibility of a third price-change driver - long-term sector-specific forces. Simulations show that the …
Inflation Expectations In Singapore: A Behavioural Approach, Alexander Clark, Aurobindo Ghosh, Samuel Hanes
Inflation Expectations In Singapore: A Behavioural Approach, Alexander Clark, Aurobindo Ghosh, Samuel Hanes
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The expectations of economic agents have significant impact on their decisions and are key determinants of macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment. For example, if a worker believes that consumer prices will rise sharply next year, she would demand a wage increase. Similarly, a homeowner with a fixed interest mortgage might make an early repayment if she expects price levels to fall, knowing that the real value of her mortgage debt will increase. In these cases, expectations about inflation could lead to changes in behaviour and in the aggregate, influence prices and become self-fulfilling.
Are Inflation Measures Really Measuring Inflation?, Peter L. D'Antonio Ph.D.
Are Inflation Measures Really Measuring Inflation?, Peter L. D'Antonio Ph.D.
Faculty Works: Business (1973-2022)
This paper challenges the underlying assumptions that form the basis for current US inflation measurement. Standard inflation models implicitly treat all divergences of sector price changes as temporary noise. Based on this logic, the only force driving price level changes over time must be the underlying inflation rate. This paper proposes an alternative model that allows for persistent sector-specific price changes, and then conducts statistical tests to determine if sector price changes represent significant alternate forces driving measured inflation. The tests show that several sectoral forces are distorting measured inflation, indicating that traditional inflation gauges are not measuring underlying inflation …
Using Tips To Discount To Present Value, Raymond Strangways, Bruce L. Rubin, Michael Zugelder
Using Tips To Discount To Present Value, Raymond Strangways, Bruce L. Rubin, Michael Zugelder
Finance Faculty Publications
The practice of forensic economics has a long history of trying to identify the correct interest rate to use when valuing economic losses in personal injury and wrongful death cases. We trace the legal history as it relates to the appropriate interest rates and adjustments for inflation. We then discuss the use of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, TIPS, and an analysis of the combined effect of realized inflation and taxes on the effective return. We come to the unexpected conclusion that the use of TIPS does not lend itself to a simple adjustment to the rate for taxes nor eliminate …
Response Of Long-Term Interest Rates To Overnight Interest Rates In The United States, Charles Kweku Konadu-Adjei, Roger W. Mayer, Wen-Wen Chien
Response Of Long-Term Interest Rates To Overnight Interest Rates In The United States, Charles Kweku Konadu-Adjei, Roger W. Mayer, Wen-Wen Chien
Walden Faculty and Staff Publications
The behavior of the long-term interest rates is a practical problem for private and public organizations. Organizations need to estimate interest rates for purposes of assigning value to long-term obligations such as defined benefit plans and long-term leases and making decisions related to long term capital purchases. The purpose of this study was to analyze the determinants of long-term interest rates in the United States, using 352 quarterly time series data points extending from 1999 to 2009. This study examines how a change in overnight interest rates, budget deficit, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and net capital inflow impact on …
Evaluating Economic Relationships Of Stapled And Traditional Australian Reits, Jaime Yong, David Allen, Lee Lim
Evaluating Economic Relationships Of Stapled And Traditional Australian Reits, Jaime Yong, David Allen, Lee Lim
Research outputs 2011
The number of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (AREITs) trading as stapled securities has grown significantly in the past ten years. Though this type of trust structure improves the income growth to investors, stapled AREITs are riskier relative to traditional AREITs that act primarily as holding companies of property assets. Academic literature on REIT characteristics has found that these assets have become less integrated with bonds and more with stocks. An increasingly mature AREIT market implies that prices of these assets have become more integrated with values of the underlying direct property investments. This study employs quarterly prices over 30 …
Ua37/29 Gary Ransdell - Fed. Reserve Board - Ben Bernanke Committee On Budget, St. Louis Federal Reserve Board
Ua37/29 Gary Ransdell - Fed. Reserve Board - Ben Bernanke Committee On Budget, St. Louis Federal Reserve Board
Faculty/Staff Personal Papers
Email sent to members of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Board of testimoney by Ben Bernanke before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives.
The Impact Of Inflation Targeting Regime On The Relationship Between Stock Returns And Inflation: International Evidence, Unro Lee
Eberhardt School of Business Faculty Articles
Twenty six industrialized and emerging countries have adopted inflation targeting monetary policy since 1990 to combat persistently high inflation rate. This policy accords either the government and/or the central bank the authority to assign an explicit numerical target for inflation rate and implement an appropriate monetary policy to achieve its goal. This study investigates whether the adoption of inflation targeting strategy has affected the relationship between stock returns and inflation rate. Specifically, this study tests a hypothesis that, in an economy where inflation targeting has been adopted as a new monetary policy strategy, real stock returns should be sensitive to …
Mass Business Report, College Of Management, University Of Massachusetts Boston
Mass Business Report, College Of Management, University Of Massachusetts Boston
Financial Services Forum Publications
Welcome to the College of Management, UMASS – Boston, Financial Services Forum’s Fall 2009 report on the Massachusetts economy. The Forum is a source of current information and commentary about critical issues facing the industries in Boston and at the national level, as well as the health of financial services in general.
Emerging Economies, Turnover Rates And Inflation Variability: A Comparison Of Generalized Maximum Likelihood And Sur Models, Hermann Sintim-Aboagye
Emerging Economies, Turnover Rates And Inflation Variability: A Comparison Of Generalized Maximum Likelihood And Sur Models, Hermann Sintim-Aboagye
Department of Accounting and Finance Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works
Theoretical exposition and empirical evidence in central bank independence (CBI) literature confirm an inverse relationship between inflation and measures of CBI mostly in developed economies. Based on this ex ante information on CBI-inflation tradeoff, this paper proposes two functional forms for the diagonal and off diagonal elements in the residual covariance matrix in the estimation process. The proposed functional forms are used in a generalized maximum likelihood and then in a generalized least squares (GLS) (with the restricted covariance matrix) framework for the empirical test. The results are compared to the outcome of an SUR model (unrestricted). The tests involve …
The Behavior Of Money And Other Economic Variables: Two Natural Experiments, James R. Lothian, Cornelia H, Mccarthy
The Behavior Of Money And Other Economic Variables: Two Natural Experiments, James R. Lothian, Cornelia H, Mccarthy
CRIF Working Paper series
Every once in a great while, history provides us with a natural experiment, an episode in which a major change in a key economic variable occurs that has no direct relation to the contemporaneous behavior of the variables that theory suggests it ought to effect.1 A classic example was the currency reform during the U.S. Civil War by the Confederacy in spring 1864. A second was provided by the massive inflow of specie from the New World to Spain in the sixteenth century. In the first of these examples, a rapidly growing money stock suddenly fell and a decline in …
Equity Returns And Inflation: The Puzzlingly Long Lags, James R. Lothian, Cornelia Mccarthy
Equity Returns And Inflation: The Puzzlingly Long Lags, James R. Lothian, Cornelia Mccarthy
CRIF Working Paper series
This paper examines data for stock prices and price levels of 14 developed countries during the post-WWII era and compares their behavior in that sample with behavior over the past two centuries in the UK and the US. Contrary to much of the literature of the past several decades, we find that nominal equity prices do, in fact, keep pace with movements in the overall price level. Our results suggest, however, that this is only the case over long periods. The puzzle therefore is not that equities fail the test as inflation hedges, as had been quite widely believed, but …
Actuarial Model Assumptions For Australian Inflation, Equity Returns, And Interest Rates, Michael Sherris
Actuarial Model Assumptions For Australian Inflation, Equity Returns, And Interest Rates, Michael Sherris
Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)
Though actuaries have developed several types of stochastic investment models for inflation, stock market returns, and interest rates, there are two commonly used in practice: autoregressive time series models with normally distributed errors, and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models. ARCH models are particularly suited when there is heteroscedasticity in inflation and interest rate series. In such cases nonnormal residuals are found in the empirical data. This paper examines whether Australian univariate inflation and interest rate data are consistent with autoregressive time series and ARCH model assumptions.
Annuity Choices For Pensioners, Zaki M. Khorasanee
Annuity Choices For Pensioners, Zaki M. Khorasanee
Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)
We consider two ways for a retiree to obtain a pension from a retirement fund: through the purchase of a whole life annuity providing a level monetary income; and through the withdrawal of income from a fund invested in equities. Deterministic and stochastic models are used to assess the risks and benefits associated with each approach. In each case the projected cash flows are compared with those from a whole life annuity providing an income linked to price inflation. We conclude that, although each of the two options conSidered involves significant risks, each method may be attractive to certain groups …
A Proposal For Improving The System Of Financing Health Care In Singapore, Robert Keng Heong Lian, Loi Soh Loi
A Proposal For Improving The System Of Financing Health Care In Singapore, Robert Keng Heong Lian, Loi Soh Loi
Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)
Like many other countries, including the United States, Singapore faces the dual problems of rising health care costs and an aging population. To cope with these problems, the Singapore government introduced the Medishield scheme in 1989 that provides low cost catastrophic medical insurance coverage. The scheme suffers from a serious deficiency, however: coverage ceases at age 70. This deficiency is exacerbated by Medishield's premium payment structure which is akin to the premium structure of a one year renewable term policy so no reserves are developed. As a result, coverage beyond age 70 requires exorbitant premiums that are beyond the reach …