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Expected Return, Volume, And Mispricing, Yufeng Han, Dashan Huang, Dayong Huang, Guofu Zhou
Expected Return, Volume, And Mispricing, Yufeng Han, Dashan Huang, Dayong Huang, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We find that expected return is related to trading volume positively among underpriced stocks but negatively among overpriced stocks. As such, trading volume amplifies mispricing. Our results are robust to alternative mispricing and trading volume measures, alternative portfolio formation methods, and controlling for variables that are known to have amplification effects on mispricing. By attributing trading volume to investor disagreement, we show that our results are consistent with the recent theoretical model of Atmaz and Basak (2018) in that investor disagreement predicts stock returns conditional on expectation bias.
Security Analysts And Capital Market Anomalies, Li Guo, Frank Weikai Li, K.C. John Wei
Security Analysts And Capital Market Anomalies, Li Guo, Frank Weikai Li, K.C. John Wei
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We examine whether analysts use information in well-known stock return anomalies when making recommendations. We find results contrary to the common view that analysts are sophisticated information intermediaries who help improve market efficiency. Specifically, when analysts make more favorable recommendations to stocks classified as overvalued, these stocks tend to have particularly large negative abnormal returns ex post. Moreover, analysts whose recommendations are more aligned with anomaly signals are more skilled and elicit greater recommendation announcement returns. Our results suggest that analysts' biased recommendations could be a source of market frictions that impede the efficient correction of mispricing.
Dissecting Arbitrage Costs, F. Y. Eric Lam, Chishen Wei, K. C John Wei
Dissecting Arbitrage Costs, F. Y. Eric Lam, Chishen Wei, K. C John Wei
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper systematically examines the impact of nine popular arbitrage costs measures on cross-sectional mispricing based on ten well-known and robust anomalies. We show that binding arbitrage barriers slowly change over time. In early years with few publications documenting return anomalies, arbitrage costs have tiny impact even though mispricing is present. As anomalies become more widely known, arbitrage costs impact mispricing substantially. Arbitrage risk, ambiguity of fundamental value, round-trip broker’s commission plus bid-ask spreads, and stock loan supply are binding on arbitrageurs. Only arbitrage risk is binding if larger cap stocks are emphasized. In recent years when market quality improves …
Short Selling And Economic Policy Uncertainty, Xiaping Cao, Yuchen Wang, Sili Zhou
Short Selling And Economic Policy Uncertainty, Xiaping Cao, Yuchen Wang, Sili Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study the trading behavior of short sellers in the presence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Daily short selling activity at either the aggregate level or the individual stock level is increasing in the EPU index (Baker, Bloom and Davis, 2016). EPU has great explanatory power for short trading. Cross-sectional tests show that the increase in short interest under high political uncertainty is from shorting stocks characterized by higher mispricing, greater policy sensitivity, higher illiquidity, greater volatility or analyst dispersion. Short sellers earn abnormal profits by trading on public information related to EPU.
Is Cash-Return Relation Risk Induced?, Chenxi Liu
Is Cash-Return Relation Risk Induced?, Chenxi Liu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Corporate cash holding is found to be able to predict stock return. Some scholars attribute this to the association of cash with systematic risk with respect to growth options. Others find that the relation is a mispricing effect. In this paper, I try to test whether the relation between cash and return is driven by systematic risk that captured by cash. The empirical results do not support the risk explanation of cash-return relation. First, the risk loading on CASH factor cannot predict returns, which is not consistent with rational frictionless asset pricing models. Second, CASH factor cannot reflect future GDP …
Macro Disagreement And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Frank Weikai Li
Macro Disagreement And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Frank Weikai Li
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines the effects of macro-level disagreement on the cross-section of stock returns. Using forecast dispersion measure from Survey of Professional Forecasters database, I find that when forecast dispersion on macroeconomic factor is high, stocks that have high loadings on that factor earn lower future returns relative to stocks with low loadings and vice versa. This negative relationship between risk premium of macro-factors and macro-level disagreement is robust and exists for a large set of macroeconomic risk factors. These findings are consistent with the model of Hong and Sraer (2015), where high beta stocks are more prone to speculative …