Business Commons^™

Laborem Exercens And The Subjective Dimension Of Work In Economics And Finance, Geoffrey Frieson

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

The objective dimension of work involves the person acting on external objects through the process of economic production. But because persons tend toward self-realization, and because work is an integral part of this process, the person is also the subject of work. The subjective dimension of work involves work as a creative process operating on the person performing the work. In the encyclical Laborem Exercens, John Paul II argues that the subjective dimension of work is primary and that the primary basis of the value of work is the subject: man himself. This does not mean that the economic …

Human Flourishing And The Self-Limiting Assumptions Of Modern Finance, Geoffrey Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Current models in Finance make strong, self-limiting assumptions about the nature of human utility, human relationships, human flourishing, and human growth. These assumptions facilitate tractable solutions to financial problems but ignore subjective determinants of human well-being and value creation within the firm. The philosophical and theological traditions of Catholic teaching, as well as evidence on human flourishing from model social science, call us beyond these models. This paper focuses on three specific areas where a “disconnect” exists between Catholic teaching and current Finance models, highlights the relevance of Catholic teaching, and sketches a framework for more fully integrating human flourishing …

The Effect Of Unsuccessful Past Repurchases On Future Repurchasing Decisions, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Noel Pavel Jeutang, Emre Unlu

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We find that managers are less likely to repurchase stocks when they lose money on past stock repurchases but find no robust evidence that past gains on repurchases influence future repurchasing activity. This asymmetric sensitivity is strongest for young CEOs and those with the shortest tenure. Also, future repurchases are more sensitive to past repurchase losses for CEOs whose previous lifetime experience with the stock market is unfavorable. The sensitivity of future repurchases to past losses costs firms, on average, about 3.7% per year. When this cost is decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, we find that nearly half (1.8%) …

Algorithmic Trading And Market Quality: International Evidence, Ekkehart Boehmer, Kingsley Fong, Juan (Julie) Wu

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We study the effect of algorithmic trading (AT) on market quality between 2001 and 2011 in 42 equity markets around the world. We use exchange co-location service that increases AT as an exogenous instrument to draw causal inferences of AT on market quality. On average, AT improves liquidity and informational efficiency but increases short-term volatility. Importantly, AT also lowers execution shortfalls for buy-side institutional investors. Our results are surprisingly consistent across markets and thus across a wide range of AT environments. We further document that the beneficial effect of AT is stronger in large stocks than in small stocks.

Human Flourishing And The Subjective Dimension Of Work, Geoffrey Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This essay considers the Christian understanding of the subjective dimension of human work and the implications for economics, finance, and the modern firm. The biblical account of people profoundly captures the fullness of human nature and the role of work and economy in developing the full person. People’s reality is both individual and collective, encompassing their subjective interior and objective exterior dimensions of reality. This issue is important because economic models affect economic decisions, and these decisions help shape social reality. Current economic and financial models are problematic because they are self-limiting: They close off certain outcomes by assuming they …

Resilience Management For Conservation Of Inland Recreational Fisheries, Edward V. Camp, Mark A. Kaemingk, Robert N. M. Ahrens, Warren M. Potts, William E. Pine Iii, Olaf L. F. Weyl, Kevin L. Pope

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Resilience thinking has generated much interest among scientific communities, yet most resilience concepts have not materialized into management applications. We believe that using resilience concepts to characterize systems and the social and ecological processes affecting them is a way to integrate resilience into better management decisions. This situation is exemplified by inland recreational fisheries, which represent complex socioecological systems that face unpredictable and unavoidable change. Making management decisions in the context of resilience is increasingly important given mounting environmental and anthropogenic perturbations to inland systems. Herein, we propose a framework that allows resilience concepts to be better incorporated into management …

Ecosystem-Specific Growth Responses To Climate Pattern By A Temperate Freshwater Fish, Jonathan Spurgeon, Mark A. Pegg, Kevin L. Pope, Lin Xie

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Somatic growth patterns among animal populations are maintained through complex processes that vary among ecosystems. Changes in growth patterns may be concomitant with changes in climate; however, understanding how growth will manifest among ecosystems is limited. Information embedded within fish hard-parts (i.e., otoliths, spines, vertebrae) can account for variation in growth patterns resulting from changing climate conditions. Channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus is a freshwater fish species widely distributed across North America with limited information regarding climate influences on growth and differences in climate-growth relations among ecological systems. We assessed growth (total length) response to changing climate conditions for channel catfish …

Harvest–Release Decisions In Recreational Fisheries, Mark A. Kaemingk, Keith L. Hurley, Christopher J. Chizinski, Kevin L. Pope

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Most fishery regulations aim to control angler harvest. Yet, we lack a basic understanding of what actually determines the angler’s decision to harvest or release fish caught. We used XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to develop a predictive angler harvest–release model by taking advantage of an extensive recreational fishery data set (24 water bodies, 9 years, and 193 523 fish). We were able to successfully predict the harvest–release outcome for 99% of fish caught in the training data set and 96% of fish caught in the test data set. Unsuccessful predictions were mostly attributed to predicting harvest of fish that …

Coerced Regimes: Management Challenges In The Anthropocene, David G. Angeler, Brian C. Chaffin, Shana M. Sundstrom, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Kevin L. Pope, Daniel R. Uden, Dirac Twidwell, Craig R. Allen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Management frequently creates system conditions that poorly mimic the conditions of a desirable self-organizing regime. Such management is ubiquitous across complex systems of people and nature and will likely intensify as these systems face rapid change. However, it is highly uncertain whether the costs (unintended consequences, including negative side effects) of management but also social dynamics can eventually outweigh benefits in the long term. We introduce the term “coerced regime” to conceptualize this management form and tie it into resilience theory. The concept encompasses proactive and reactive management to maintain desirable and mitigate undesirable regime conditions, respectively. A coerced regime …

Sentiment And Stock Returns: Anticipating A Major Sporting Event, Brian C. Payne, Jiri Tresl, Geoffrey C. Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This study documents the effect of the Super Bowl on the stock returns of firms that are geographically associated with the competing teams. We find significant upward return drift in the 9 trading days leading up to the Super Bowl, a pattern consistent with investors trading in anticipation of the game itself. The ‘‘anticipatory behavior’’ among investors leads to widespread pregame returns, which is not documented in prior studies. These pre-event abnormal returns are positive and statistically and economically significant for all firms, and the size of pre-event returns varies according to each team’s favored status. In addition, firms associated …

Sentiment And Stock Returns: Anticipating A Major Sporting Event -- Online Appendix, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Brian C. Payne, Jiri Tresl

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Table 3 (Appendix): Average Daily Raw Returns around NFL Super Bowl Events for Firms Headquartered in Losing, Winning, Favored, and Non-Favored States and the S&P 500

Table 5 (Appendix): Average Daily Abnormal Returns around NFL Super Bowl Events for Firms Headquartered in Losing, Winning, Favored, and Non-Favored States

Table 6 (Appendix): Average Daily Abnormal Returns around NFL Super Bowl Events for Firms Headquartered in Losing, Winning, Favored, and Non-Favored States Conditioned on whether the Firm is in a Losing or Winning State

Table 7 (Appendix) : Sample Split into Size Quintiles

Table 8 (Appendix) : Characteristics of the Matched Sample …

The Relationship Between The Option-Implied Volatility Smile, Stock Returns And Heterogeneous Beliefs, Shu Feng, Yi Zhang, Geoffrey C. Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We study the relationship between stock returns and the implied volatility smile slope of call and put options. Stocks with a steeper put slope earn lower future returns, while stocks with a steeper call slope earn higher future returns. Using dispersion of opinion as a proxy for belief differences, we find that the slope-stock return relation is strongest for stocks with high belief differences. The idiosyncratic component of the put slope fully explains the negative risk-adjusted stock returns. For the call slope, the idiosyncratic component dominates the systematic one, and explains the positive risk-adjusted returns.

Hedge Fund Replication With A Genetic Algorithm: Breeding A Usable Mousetrap, Brian C. Payne, Jiri Tresl

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This study tests the performance of 14 hedge fund index clones created using parsimonious outof- sample replication portfolios consisting solely of easily accessible assets. We employ a genetic algorithm to integrate two traditional hedge fund replication methods, the factor-based and payoff distribution replication methods, and evaluate over 4500 commonly held stocks, bonds and mutual funds as replicating portfolio components. In-sample performance indicates that hedge funds have return series similar to portfolios of commonly held assets, and out-of-sample results provide evidence that the in-sample relationships can hold with infrequent rebalancing. This hedge fund replication attempt rates well relatively to prior efforts …

Systems And Methods Of Derivative Strategy Selection And Composition, Greg Hammond

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

A method and apparatus of selecting derivative strategies, where candidate derivative strategies are selected from a set of essentially all possible derivative strategies available for an underlying, based upon a user's market sentiment for an underlying, to perform favorably under the foreseen conditions being most appropriate to the user's strategic intent and the choices afforded by the relevant markets.

Health Care And The Cross-Section Of Us Stock Returns, Brian C. Payne, John Geppert

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Health care costs represent a large and growing component of business and consumer expenditures in the US. Medical inflation represents these costs, and it differs from aggregate inflation and other market factors with respect to its rate of growth, statistical properties and the extent to which it can be hedged by households and firms. Using multiple model specifications for the 25-year period from 1985 to 2009, we find medical inflation is robustly priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. It commands a risk premium of between 31 and 51 basis points per annum per unit change in beta. Medical …

Shareholder Returns From Supplying Trade Credit, Matthew D. Hill, G. Wayne Kelly, G. Brandon Lockhart

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We examine shareholder wealth implications of supplying financing to customers. Robust results demonstrate that excess returns and trade receivables are directly and significantly related. Further evidence indicates the value of receivables is higher for suppliers with stronger motives relating to operating and contracting costs. The results also suggest a discounted value of receivables for financially unconstrained firms. Overall, we conclude that investors recognize trade credit as an effective instrument in mitigating frictions hindering sales growth. Thus, certain suppliers are positioned to derive increased strategic benefits from credit policy.

Heterogeneous Beliefs And Risk Neutral Skewness, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Yi Zhang, Thomas Zorn

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This study tests whether investor belief differences affect the cross-sectional variation of risk-neutral skewness, using data on firm-level stock options traded on the CBOE from 2003 to 2006. Using well known proxies for heterogeneous beliefs, we find that stocks with greater belief differences have more negative skews, even after controlling for systematic risk and other firm-level variables known to affect skewness. This result also goes beyond the net price pressure hypothesis suggested by Bollen and Whaley (2004). Factor analysis identifies latent variables linked to systematic risk and belief differences. The belief factor explains more variation in the risk-neutral density than …

Building A Better Mousetrap: Enhanced Dollar Cost Averaging, Lee Dunham, Geoffrey C. Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This paper presents a simple, intuitive investment strategy that improves upon the popular dollarcost- averaging (DCA) approach. The investment strategy, which we call enhanced dollar-costaveraging (EDCA), is a simple, rule-based strategy that retains most of the attributes of traditional DCA that are appealing to most investors but yet adjusts to new information, which traditional DCA does not. Simulation results show that the EDCA strategy reliably outperforms the DCA strategy in terms of higher dollar-weighted returns about 90% of the time and nearly always delivers greater terminal wealth for reasonable values of the risk premium. EDCA is most effective when applied …

Executive Compensation And The Maturity Structure Of Corporate Debt, Paul Brockman, Xiumin Martin, Emre Unlu

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Executive compensation influences managerial risk preferences through executives’ portfolio sensitivities to changes in stock prices (delta) and stock return volatility (vega). Large deltas discourage managerial risk-taking, while large vegas encourage risk-taking. Theory suggests that short-maturity debt mitigates agency costs of debt by constraining managerial risk preferences. We posit and find evidence of a negative (positive) relation between CEO portfolio deltas (vegas) and short-maturity debt. We also find that shortmaturity debt mitigates the influence of vega- and delta-related incentives on bond yields. Overall, our empirical evidence shows that short-term debt mitigates agency costs of debt arising from compensation risk.

Overreaction In The Thrift Ipo Aftermarket, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Christopher Swift

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We study the initial returns and long-run performance of a unique sample of thrifts that have recently converted from mutual to stock form. In addition to a full claim on all IPO proceeds, new investors in a converted thrift also receive a claim on all pre-conversion market value at no cost. Thus, the average firm in our sample has a degree of underpricing automatically built into its offer price. We find that after removing the large initial returns, cumulative excess returns for the firms in our sample are positive for 12 months after the IPO. Beginning in the second year …

Price Trends And Patterns In Technical Analysis: A Theoretical And Empirical Examination, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Paul Weller, Lee Dunham

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

While many technical trading rules are based upon patterns in asset prices, we lack convincing explanations of how and why these patterns arise, and why trading rules based on technical analysis are profitable. This paper provides a model that explains the success of certain trading rules that are based on patterns in past prices. We point to the importance of confirmation bias, which has been shown to play a key role in other types of decision making. Traders who acquire information and trade on the basis of that information tend to bias their interpretation of subsequent information in the direction …

The Predictive Content Of Aggregate Analyst Recommendations, John S. Howe, Emre Unlu, Xuemin (Sterling) Yan

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Using more than 350,000 sell-side analyst recommendations from January 1994 to August 2006, this paper examines the predictive content of aggregate analyst recommendations. We find that changes in aggregate analyst recommendations forecast future market excess returns after controlling for macroeconomic variables that have been shown to influence market returns. Similarly, changes in industry-aggregated analyst recommendations predict future industry returns. Changes in aggregate analyst recommendations also predict one-quarter-ahead aggregate earnings growth. Overall, our results suggest that analyst recommendations contain market- and industry-level information about future returns and earnings.

Dividend Policy, Creditor Rights, And The Agency Costs Of Debt, Paul Brockman, Emre Unlu

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We show that country-level creditor rights influence dividend policies around the world by establishing the balance of power between debt and equity claimants. Creditors demand and managers consent to a more restrictive payout policy as a substitute for weak creditor rights in an effort to minimize the firm’s agency costs of debt. Using a sample of 120,507 firm-years from 52 countries, we find that both the probability and amount of dividend payouts are significantly lower in countries with poor creditor rights. A reduction in the creditor rights index from its highest value to its lowest value implies a 41% reduction …

P/E Changes: Some New Results, Thomas S. Zorn, Donna M. Dudney, Benjamas Jirasakuldech

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

The P/E ratio is often used as a metric to compare individual stocks and the market as a whole relative to historical valuations. We examine the factors that affect changes in the inverse of the P/E ratio (E/P) over time in the broad market (S&P 500 Index). Our model includes variables that measure investor beliefs and changes in tax rates and shows that these variables are important factors affecting the P/E ratio. We extend prior work by correcting for the presence of a long-run relation between variables included in the model. As frequently conjectured, changes in the P/E ratio have …

Do Tax-Exempt Yields Adjust Slowly To Substantial Changes In Taxable Yields?, Donna Dudney, John Geppert

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This paper examines the profitability of two futures trading strategies: a municipal bond futures contract strategy and a spread strategy consisting of a municipal bond futures contract and a Treasury bond futures contract. Both strategies are designed to exploit a slow municipal yield adjustment following changes in Treasury yields. We find economically significant profits to both strategies. Average holding period returns per trade for both strategies tend to increase with the magnitude of the Treasury yield change. Profit distributions associated with various Treasury yield change thresholds tend to be positively skewed, and median profits are significantly lower than average profits. …

Securitization Of Catastrophe Mortality Risks, Yijia Lin, Samuel H. Cox

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Securitization with payments linked to explicit mortality events provides a new investment opportunity to investors and financial institutions. Moreover, mortality-linked securities provide an alternative risk management tool for insurers. As a step toward un¬derstanding these securities, we develop an asset pricing model for mortality-based securities in an incomplete market framework with jump processes. Our model nicely explains opposite market outcomes of two existing pure mortality securities.

Ex–Dividend Day Price And Volume: The Case Of 2003 Dividend Tax Cut, Yi Zhang, Kathleen A. Farrell, Todd A. Brown

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

We examine the impact of the 2003 dividend tax cut, which removes the differential taxation between dividends and capital gains for individual investors, on the ex–dividend day price and trading volume. We find the ex–dividend day price and volume are affected by taxes, risk, and transaction costs. The ex–dividend day price drop ratio (excess return) increases (decreases) and dividend clienteles weaken after the tax cut. Ex–dividend day abnormal volume among high dividend yield stocks decreases after the tax cut consistent with a diminished motivation for tax–induced trading. Our results suggest that individual investors have a measurable effect on the ex–dividend …

How Do Firms Adjust Director Compensation?, Kathleen A. Farrell, Geoffrey C. Friesen, Philip L. Hersch

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

This paper examines outside director compensation for a sample of 237 Fortune 500 firms over the 1998-2004 period. We document a trend towards fixed-value equity compensation and away from cash only and fixed-number equity compensation. Adjustments to director compensation are consistent with firms targeting a market level of compensation, and firms that deviate from their market wage symmetrically adjust compensation back toward the market level. We also document the relation between changes in compensation and changes in equity values, and find that upward adjustments begin sooner than downward adjustments. When equity values rise, we find virtually no immediate offset to …

An Empirical Examination Of Jump Risk In U.S. Equity And Bond Markets, Lee M. Durham, Geoffrey C. Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

ABSTRACT
Actuaries manage risk, and asset price volatility is the most fundamental parameter in models of risk management. This study utilizes recent advances in econometric theory to decompose total asset price volatility into a smooth, continuous component and a discrete (jump) component. We analyze a data set that consists of high-frequency tick-by-tick data for all stocks in the S&P 100 Index, as well as similar futures contract data on three U.S. equity indexes and three U.S. Treasury securities during the period 1999–2005. We find that discrete jumps contribute between 15% and 25% of total asset risk for all equity index …

On The Lack Of Participating Policy Usage By Stock Insurance Companies, Geoffrey C. Friesen

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Stock insurers can reduce or eliminate agency conflicts between policyholders and stockholders by issuing participating insurance. Despite this benefit, most stock companies don’t offer participating contracts. This study explains why. We study an equilibrium with both stock and mutual insurers in which stockholders set premiums to provide a fair expected return on their investment, and with a policyholder who chooses the insurance contract that maximizes her expected utility. We demonstrate that stockholders cannot profitably offer fully participating contracts, but can profitably offer partially participating insurance. However, when the policyholder participation fraction is high, the fair-return premium is so large that …