Business Commons^™

The Rocket: Analyzing Rtp (Return To Player), Payoff Distribution And Player Behavior In Crash Games, Mikhail M. Sher, Robert Haywood Scott Iii, Jonathan A. Daigle

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Rocket is a crash game developed by DraftKings, an American publicly traded online casino, sports betting and fantasy sports company. DraftKings Rocket is a game played with a rising rocket. Players must exit the rocket at any point before the rocket crashes. In that case they receive the payoff in accordance to the multiplier of their exit point. If the rocket crashes before the player bails, player’s payoff is 0 (and they lose their bet).

The game boasts an unprecedented 97% RTP (Return to Player). For comparison, Atlantic City casino slots typically have a 91-92% RTP, while Vegas casino …

Analyzing The Efficiency Of Response To News Regarding Legalization Of Sports Wagering, Kevin Krieger, Justin L. Davis

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A landmark decision (Murphy v. NCAA) by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) in 2018 ruled the federal government could not prohibit states from allowing sports wagering. While the implications of this decision are far reaching at both an industry and societal level, our study assesses the market response to information available throughout the various phases leading up to this decision by SCOTUS. The timeline of events preceding the SCOTUS decision is tracked, and stock performances of relevant, publicly traded firms are analyzed across three inflection points. Findings suggest the market failed to adequately acknowledge key …

Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

It is well-known that expected portfolio growth is maximized by maximizing

expected logarithmic utility. This investment criterion is known as Kelly betting.

It has many optimality properties but is considered to be risky. Blackjack

teams and other advantage gamblers practice a fraction of the Kelly optimal to

decrease risk. Some hedge fund managers are thought to practice according to

Kelly principles. We use a continuous multivariate Geometric Brownian motion

model and present an interval estimate for the historical fraction for a portfolio

of correlated bets, possibly including a risk-free asset. Historical data comes

from a range of sources and the …

Optimal Strategy For Gambling Pools, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In gambling pools, entrants submit predictions and the prizes are awarded to the prediction or predictions closest to actual outcomes. Some well-known examples are football pools (both the global and American game versions), toto, NCAA March Madness bracket pools and horse racing tournaments. For small pools with complete information about outcome probabilities, exact game theory optimal solutions are straightforward to compute. If there is also complete information about the number and strategy of other players, optimal exploitive strategies are even easier to derive. These problems have been treated in the literature.

This paper argues that the complete information approaches are …

Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Kelly criterion gives the appropriate bet size in idealized situations with known parameters. In financial trading situations parameters are generally unknown and the mathematical assumptions underlying the Kelly proof are not met precisely. Moreover a risk manager typically must cooperate with a trader who may be skeptical about both the Kelly criterion specifically and the concept of mathematical optimization of bet size in general.

This presentation tackles the problem of designing a Kelly-based system for setting trade risk management parameters that is both self-correcting (the system delivers good results even if initial parameter are misestimated or parameters change) and …

Anti-Money Laundering Programs For Casinos - A Comparison Of Macao And Us Practices, Carlos Siu, Malcolm Greenlees

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Anti-Money Laundering Programs for Casinos: A Comparison of Macao and US Practice.

Recent world events have reemphasized the importance of controlling and reporting of terrorism financing – one of the major reasons for National and International Anti Money Laundering procedures since the early 1980’s.

Although initially focused on commercial banking operations, casinos have been brought under the scope of that legislation since 1990 – as “money service businesses.” The explosive growth of the Macao casino business on the world gaming since 1995 has led to implementation of new rules for the casinos operating in that jurisdiction.

The current research describes …