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Articles 1 - 30 of 56
Full-Text Articles in Business
Quantitative Hedge Fund Selection, Melvyn Teo
Quantitative Hedge Fund Selection, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre
Prior research has shown that small funds, young funds, and local funds outperform their older, larger, and distant counterparts. According to the literature, hedge fund performance is driven by fund capacity constraints, managerial incentives, and local information. I revisit these studies on hedge funds and test whether their results hold up in recent data. By doing so, I lay the foundations for a quantitative hedge fund selection framework.
Private Banking In Asia: Going Beyond Trust And Confidence, Knowledge@Smu
Private Banking In Asia: Going Beyond Trust And Confidence, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
Asia's private banking industry is expected to expand in the near future, and all signs point to greater competition amongst existing markets and wealth management entities. The nature of the financial service, however, remains rather interpersonal. Private bankers work almost exclusively with sophisticated, high net worth individuals. Long term survival, for them, means sticking with high value clients over the long haul, over and above sticking it out with the institutes that back those financial services. What might this spell for the market? SMU's Ang Ser-Keng asked industry experts through a series of interviews.
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact finite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on devian information criterion …
Do Foreign Institutions Improve Stock Liquity?, Chi Shen Wei
Do Foreign Institutions Improve Stock Liquity?, Chi Shen Wei
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines whether capital flows by foreign institutions improve liquidity in domestic markets. I find that stocks with increased foreign institutional ownership subsequently experience higher liquidity. However, it is difficult to interpret this evidence as a causal relation because institutions tend to self-select into more liquid stocks. To solve this problem, I exploit the 2003 US dividend tax cut as a natural experiment. The results from a 2SLS (IV) regression confirm that liquidity improved more in dividend-paying stocks located in US tax-treaty countries compared to similar stocks located in non-treaty countries. These patterns are consistent with the notion that …
Would Position Limits Have Made Any Difference To The 'Flash Crash' On May 6, 2010, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh
Would Position Limits Have Made Any Difference To The 'Flash Crash' On May 6, 2010, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh
Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems
On May 6, 2010, the US equity markets experienced a brief but highly unusual drop in prices across a number of stocks and indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by approximately 9% in a matter of minutes, and several stocks were traded down sharply before recovering a short time later. Earlier research by Lee, Cheng and Koh (2010) identified the conditions under which a “flash crash” can be triggered by systematic traders running highly similar trading strategies, especially when they are “crowding out” other liquidity providers in the market. The authors contend that the events of May 6, …
Hedge Funds And Analyst Optimism, Melvyn Teo
Hedge Funds And Analyst Optimism, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre
We find that analysts are more likely to issue favorable recommendations for stocks predominantly owned hedge funds. Moreover, these optimistic recommendations translate into poorer stock performance over the next three to six months. Hedge funds take advantage of these flattering reports by concurrently offloading their stock holdings. Our results suggest that analysts are reluctant to downgrade stocks held by their most important clients.
Wait Not For Another Crisis: Weighing In On The Fair Value Accounting Debate, Knowledge@Smu
Wait Not For Another Crisis: Weighing In On The Fair Value Accounting Debate, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
The use of fair value accounting – simply defined as the booking of numbers based on current market value – has been named as a catalyst in worsening the recent financial crisis. Emerging from the rubble, accounting regulators, like the IASB and FASB, together with industry players, are now trying to work out rules and standards. However, the question of to “fair” or not to “fair” is the subject of a hot debate. Columbia University’s Stephen Penman weighs in at a recent SMU lecture.
Corporate Governance And Mindfulness: The Impact Of Management Accounting Systems Change, John Joseph Williams, Alfred E. Seaman
Corporate Governance And Mindfulness: The Impact Of Management Accounting Systems Change, John Joseph Williams, Alfred E. Seaman
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
The International Federation of Accountants (2009) argues that a governance structure should go beyond conformance with regulations and equally support a performance dimension that can lead to better outcomes. This paper explores the relationship between these two governance dimensions and the capacity for mindfulness, utilizing organizational theory that describes high reliability organizations. Survey data was obtained from top-level accounting professionals in a sample of 124 Canadian firms. Regression results support the hypothesis that both the conformance and performance dimensions of governance are significant determinants of the capacity for mindfulness. Additional analysis shows that the explanatory power of this relationship persists …
The Long And Short Of It: Evidence Of Year-End Price Manipulation By Short Sellers, Jesse Blocher, Joseph Engelberg, Adam V. Reed
The Long And Short Of It: Evidence Of Year-End Price Manipulation By Short Sellers, Jesse Blocher, Joseph Engelberg, Adam V. Reed
Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre
We identify a setting in which there is a predictable incentive for short sellers to manipulate prices, and we find patterns consistent with short sellers manipulating prices. Specifically, we find that stocks with high short interest experience abnormally low returns on the last trading day of the year. This effect is strongest among stocks that are easily manipulated and during the last hour of trading. Further, this effect reverses at the beginning of the year, consistent with the temporary nature of price manipulation. We show that hedge funds’ portfolios are closely related to market-wide short interest, suggesting that hedge funds, …
International Diversification With Factor Funds, Cheol S. Eun, Sandy Lai, Frans A. De Roon, Zhe Zhang
International Diversification With Factor Funds, Cheol S. Eun, Sandy Lai, Frans A. De Roon, Zhe Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We propose a new investment strategy employing “factor funds” to systematically enhance the mean-variance efficiency of international diversification. Our approach is motivated by the increasing evidence that size (SMB), book-to-market (HML), and momentum (MOM) factors, along with the market factor, adequately describe international stock returns, and by the direct link between investors’ portfolio choice problems and international asset pricing theories and tests. Using data from ten developed countries during the period 1981-2008, we show that the “augmented” optimal portfolio involving local factor funds substantially outperforms the “benchmark” optimal portfolio comprising country market indices only as measured by their portfolio Sharpe …
Incorporating Economic Objectives Into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice Under Parameter Uncertainty, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Incorporating Economic Objectives Into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice Under Parameter Uncertainty, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper proposes a way to allow Bayesian priors to reflect the objectives of an economic problem. That is, we impose priors on the solution to the problem rather than on the primitive parameters whose implied priors can be backed out from the Euler equation. Using monthly returns on the Fama-French 25 size and book-to-market portfolios and their 3 factors from January 1965 to December 2004, we find that investment performances under the objective-based priors can be significantly different from those under alternative priors, with differences in terms of annual certainty-equivalent returns greater than 10% in many cases. In terms …
Price Movers On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand: Evidence From A Fully Automated Order-Driven Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje
Price Movers On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand: Evidence From A Fully Automated Order-Driven Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study examines trade sizes used by informed traders. The selected sample includes 73 active stocks from the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), a pure limit order market, that cover two distinct market conditions of a bull and bear market. Using intraday data, the study finds that large sized trades (i.e., larger than the 75th percentile) account for a disproportionately large impact on changes in traded and quoted prices. This finding compares with the results of studies conducted on U.S. markets that show informed traders employ trade sizes falling between the 40th and 95th percentiles (Barclay and Warner 1993; Chakravarty …
A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine
A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This article develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model of the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specific component and (iii) a date-specific component. The model combines features of the Preferred Habitat model, the Expectations Hypothesis (ET) and affine yield curve models; it permits a class of low-parameter, multiple state variable dynamic models for the forward curve. We show how to construct alternative parametric examples of the three components from a sum of exponential functions, verify that the resulting forward curves satisfy the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) conditions, and derive the risk-neutral dynamics for the …
The Liquidity Risk Of Liquid Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo
The Liquidity Risk Of Liquid Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper evaluates hedge funds that grantfavorable redemption terms to investors. Within this group of purportedlyliquid funds, high net inflow funds subsequently outperform low net inflowfunds by 4.79% per year after adjusting for risk. The return impact of fundflows is stronger when funds embrace liquidity risk, when market liquidity islow, and when funding liquidity, as measured by the Treasury-Eurodollar spread,aggregate hedge fund flows, and prime broker stock returns, is tight. Inkeeping with an agency explanation, funds with strong incentives to raisecapital, low manager option deltas, and no manager capital co-invested are morelikely to take on excessive liquidity risk. These results …
Private Equity: The Players, The Jargons, And What Lies Ahead, Knowledge@Smu
Private Equity: The Players, The Jargons, And What Lies Ahead, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
What do private equity and venture capital fund managers do? The short answer to that question will hardly do justice to the profession. Yet, it is not easy to provide an accurate explanation without first condensing the nuts and bolts that form the mechanics of the industry. Dan Schwartz, editor of the Asian Venture Capital Journal, does just that, albeit in the form of the 236-page The Future of Finance: How Private Equity and Venture Capital Will Shape the Global Economy – a book that has prominent industry leaders speaking to the layman.
Reference Point Adaptation And Disposition Effect: Evidence From Institutional Trading, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Zongfei Yang
Reference Point Adaptation And Disposition Effect: Evidence From Institutional Trading, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Zongfei Yang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using a large proprietary database of institutional trades, we investigate whether, and to what extent, the dynamic adaptation of reference point translates into variations in the disposition effect, and establish three key results. First, the propensity to realize losses declines sharply with the magnitude of prior losses due to insufficient adaptation of reference point. Second, recent adverse information accelerates investors’ adaptation to price depreciation and increases investors’ willingness to realize losses. Finally, a priori of losing money in highly speculative investments decreases investors’ aversion to realize losses. Collectively, the findings suggest that both prior outcomes and recent expectations contribute to …
Investor Diversification And The Pricing Of Idiosyncratic Risk, Fangjian Fu
Investor Diversification And The Pricing Of Idiosyncratic Risk, Fangjian Fu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Theories predict that, due to investor under-diversification, idiosyncratic risk is positively priced in expected stock returns. Empirical studies based on various methodologies yield mixed evidence. This study circumvents the debate on methodological issues and traces the pricing of idiosyncratic risk to its economic source – investor under-diversification. Assuming that institutional investors tend to hold more diversified portfolios and thus care little about idiosyncratic risk relative to individual investors, we find that the positive relation between idiosyncratic risk and stock returns is significantly stronger (weaker) in stocks that are held and traded more by individual (institutional) investors. In addition, the pricing …
Before The Fields Run Dry: How To Avoid The 'Dutch Disease', Knowledge@Smu
Before The Fields Run Dry: How To Avoid The 'Dutch Disease', Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
For any economy, the discovery of abundant natural resources is almost akin to striking nature's lottery. But as any eager financial planner might say to a lottery winner, no windfall can last for long without a solid financial plan. Singapore, a country admired for its relatively substantial national reserves, is home to almost no natural resources (except for human capital, we're told). This lack of natural resources, however, may well be the reason behind the country's economic success. According to Svein Gjedrem, governor of Norges Bank, natural resource-rich countries often suffer from a 'disease' that causes them to rely too …
How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu
How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We analyze return predictability for the Chinese stock market, including the aggregate market portfolio and the components of the aggregate market, such as portfolios sorted on industry, size, book-to-market and ownership concentration. Considering a variety of economic variables as predictors, both in-sample and out-of-sample tests highlight significant predictability in the aggregate market portfolio of the Chinese stock market and substantial differences in return predictability across components. Among industry portfolios, Finance and insurance, Real estate, and Service exhibit the most predictability, while portfolios of small-cap and low ownership concentration firms also display considerable predictability. Two key findings provide economic explanations for …
Weathering The Storm: Asian Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo
Weathering The Storm: Asian Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre
How has the financial crisis shaped the hedge fund industry in Asia? We survey the style, investment region, and assets under management landscape of Asia-based hedge funds before and after the recent economic downturn. Our findings suggest that during the early part of the crisis in 2007, macro and fixed income funds based in Australia were especially vulnerable. When Asian financial markets succumbed in 2008 and 2009, hedge fund exits ramped up in Singapore and Hong Kong, particularly amongst event driven and Japan-focused funds. Small funds were most susceptible to closure during the liquidity crunch. Conversely, CTAs and Greater China-focused …
Secrets And Lies: How One Man Charmed His Way Into The Hearts, Minds And Wallets Of New York's Rich And Powerful, Knowledge@Smu
Secrets And Lies: How One Man Charmed His Way Into The Hearts, Minds And Wallets Of New York's Rich And Powerful, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
Bernie Madoff’s reputation as the largest ponzi scheme operator will probably outlast the 150-year jail sentence he is now serving. For decades, the man created an aura around himself that spoke to the romantic ambitions of Wall Street's sycophants: unyielding success, exclusivity and power. Moreover, Madoff conjured a mystique so intriguing he had investors practically begging to surrender their money. But not everyone was blinded. Harry Markopolos, a financial consultant turned famous whistleblower, was convinced that the magician hath no magical abilities. For close to ten years, he nudged US regulators to no avail. His journey is detailed in the …
The Roles That Forecast Surprise And Forecast Error Play In Determining Management Forecast Precision, Jong-Hag Choi, Linda A. Myers, Yoonseok Zang, David A. Ziebart
The Roles That Forecast Surprise And Forecast Error Play In Determining Management Forecast Precision, Jong-Hag Choi, Linda A. Myers, Yoonseok Zang, David A. Ziebart
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
Studying the determinants of management forecast precision is important because a better understanding of the factors affecting management’s choice of forecast precision can provide investors and other users with cues about the characteristics of the information contained in the forecasts. In addition, as regulators assess the regulation of voluntary management disclosures, they need to better understand how managers choose among forecast precision disclosure alternatives. Using 16,872 management earnings forecasts collected from 1995 through 2004, we provide strong evidence that forecast precision is negatively associated with the magnitude of the forecast surprise and that this negative association is stronger when the …
Financial Sector Liberalization And Its Challenges To The Local Banks: The Experience Of Singapore, Swee Liang Tan, Gilbert Yip Wei Tan
Financial Sector Liberalization And Its Challenges To The Local Banks: The Experience Of Singapore, Swee Liang Tan, Gilbert Yip Wei Tan
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The main theme of the paper is about the challenges that financial sector liberalization poses to local banks. It reviews the experience of Singapore. We begin by explaining the unique circumstances surrounding Singapore. A small city-state controlled by a single party with about 65% majority in Parliament, Singapore has a paternalistic government that can be protective of industries that are strategic to the development of the country. Yet its government is also pragmatic, forward looking and pro-reformists. Because of its unique circumstances, the Singapore experience with liberalization is worth studying. Three key ideas will emerge in the paper. First, the …
Pricing Options In An Extended Black Scholes Economy With Illiquidity: Theory And Empirical Evidence, Umut Cetin, Robert Jarrow, Mitchell Protter, Mitchell Warachka
Pricing Options In An Extended Black Scholes Economy With Illiquidity: Theory And Empirical Evidence, Umut Cetin, Robert Jarrow, Mitchell Protter, Mitchell Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This article studies the pricing of options in an extended Black Scholes economy in which the underlying asset is not perfectly liquid. The resulting liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic supply curve, with the transaction price being a function of the trade size. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, the supply curve is upward sloping with purchases executed at higher prices and sales at lower prices. Optimal discrete time hedging strategies are then derived. Empirical evidence reveals a significant liquidity cost intrinsic to every option. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Mutual Fund Flows, Performance Persistence, And Board Quality, Sandy Lai, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe (Joe) Zhang
Mutual Fund Flows, Performance Persistence, And Board Quality, Sandy Lai, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe (Joe) Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper provides evidence on the impact of fund board quality on (a) the fund flow-performance relation, (b) persistence in fund performance, and (c) a fund’s potential change of strategy following a period of underperformance. We use Morningstar’s board quality ratings as a proxy for the quality of the fund’s board and document three main results. One, we show that funds that rank in the bottom quintile of rankings based on past performance, experience significantly lower flows at the margin when their board quality rating is poor compared to when the board quality is rated as good. Two, we document …
Side-By-Side Management Of Hedge Funds And Mutual Funds, Tom Nohel, Z. Jay Wang, Lu Zheng
Side-By-Side Management Of Hedge Funds And Mutual Funds, Tom Nohel, Z. Jay Wang, Lu Zheng
Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre
We examine situations where the same fund manager simultaneously manages mutual funds and hedge funds. We refer to this as side-by-side management. We document 344 such cases involving 693 mutual funds and 538 hedge funds. Proponents of this practice argue that it is essential to hire and retain star performers. Detractors argue that the temptation for abuse is high and the practice should be banned. Our analysis based on various performance metrics shows that side-by-side mutual fund managers significantly outperform peer funds, consistent with this privilege being granted primarily to star performers. Interestingly, side-by-side hedge fund managers are at best …
An Analysis Of Extreme Price Shocks And Illiquidity Among Systematic Trend Followers, Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh
An Analysis Of Extreme Price Shocks And Illiquidity Among Systematic Trend Followers, Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We construct an agent-based model to study the interplay between extreme price shocks and illiquidity in the presence of systematic traders known as trend followers. The agent-based approach is particularly attractive in modeling commodity markets because the approach allows for the explicit modeling of production, capacities, and storage constraints. Our study begins by using the price stream from a market simulation involving human participants and studies the behavior of various trend-following strategies, assuming initially that their participation will not impact the market. We notice an incremental deterioration in strategy performance as and when strategies deviate further and further from the …
Portfolio Selection Under Distributional Uncertainty: A Relative Robust Cvar In Portfolio Management, Dashan Huang, Shushang Zhu, Frank Fabozzi, Masao Fukushima
Portfolio Selection Under Distributional Uncertainty: A Relative Robust Cvar In Portfolio Management, Dashan Huang, Shushang Zhu, Frank Fabozzi, Masao Fukushima
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Robust optimization, one of the most popular topics in the field of optimization and control since the late 1990s, deals with an optimization problem involving uncertain parameters. In this paper, we consider the relative robust conditional value-at-risk portfolio selection problem where the underlying probability distribution of portfolio return is only known to belong to a certain set. Our approach not only takes into account the worst-case scenarios of the uncertain distribution, but also pays attention to the best possible decision with respect to each realization of the distribution. We also illustrate how to construct a robust portfolio with multiple experts …
Hot Seats And Seat Warmers: The Hunt For Directors Of Quality, Knowledge@Smu
Hot Seats And Seat Warmers: The Hunt For Directors Of Quality, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
Is it humanly possible for a person to hold more than five directorships? Why are there so few female directors in Singapore? Are we short of qualified directors? How can regulations help maintain standards? These were some of the questions that confronted a panel of seasoned directors speaking at the graduation ceremony of a certification programme for directors; issues that have seen heated debates in Singapore of late. This follows recent reports that an unusually high percentage of directors sit on many different boards, leading to questions of their ability to fully discharge their responsibilities as directors.
Selective Intervention And Economic Re-Engineering: Lessons Form Singapore's Parks In Indonesia And India, Caroline Yeoh, Siang Yeung Wong
Selective Intervention And Economic Re-Engineering: Lessons Form Singapore's Parks In Indonesia And India, Caroline Yeoh, Siang Yeung Wong
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
No abstract provided.