Business Commons^™

Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, And Bank Risk-Taking Behaviour In The Indonesian Banking Industry, Cep J. Anwar, Nicholas Okot, Indra Suhendra, Dwi Indriyani, Ferry Jie

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

There is a growing consensus on the translation of monetary policy actions into changes in credit demand on account of changes in interest rates. The study investigates monetary policy, macroprudential policy, bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank risk-taking from 2010–2022 in Indonesia. The study aims to address a gap in the literature because most previous studies have focused on advanced markets. First, three POLS and fixed effect models are estimated. However, the Durbin Wu-Hausman test indicated endogeneity issues with the estimated models. The second stage uses a system GMM estimation to investigate the impact of central bank rates and macroprudential …

Investigating The Relationship Between Monetary Policy, Macro-Prudential Policy And Credit Risk In Indonesia Banking Industry, Cep J. Anwar, Indra Suhendra, Eka Purwanda, Agus Salim, Nur A. Rakhmawati, Ferry Jie

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Using a novel panel data set we study the influence of monetary and macro-prudential policies on non-performing loans as a measure of credit risk in Indonesian banking industry from Q1 2010 to Q4 2022. The panel homogeneity assumption was verified through the utilization of the Chow and Roy-Zellner tests. The findings showed that the model was not homogenous, necessitating the use of the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. The results indicated that monetary and macro-prudential policies significantly impacted credit risk. Furthermore, tight monetary and macro-prudential policies increased and reduced credit risk in the long run, respectively. The findings also showed …

Obedience To Uli’L-Amr And Tax Compliance: Islamic Scholarly Perceptions, Prianto B. Saptono, Ismail Khozen, Ferry Jie

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

For Muslims, all aspects of human life including politics and leadership are governed by the Holy Qur’an. One of the well-known verses is QS. An-Nisa 4:59 which instructs the Muslims to obey uli’l-amr. The literature, however, shows that the scope of obedience is not absolute. Resultantly, the current research aims to understand the tax compliance in the context of obedience to authority. It provides a contemporary viewpoint from the Islamic boarding school (pesantren) communities in Depok, Indonesia about enrichment. Both quantitative research and field observations have been used to accomplish the research goals. Focusing on the pesantren communities’ support for …

Banking Industry Sustainable Growth Rate Under Risk: Empirical Study Of The Banking Industry In Asean Countries, Isnurhadi, Sulastri, Yulia Saftiana, Ferry Jie

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

This research examines how the banking industry maintains its sustainable growth rate. The sample consists of 328 commercial banks in the ASEAN area. A fixed effect model is employed to analyze the data. The study reveals several findings: (1) The countries with the most risk in the banking industry are Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore. (2) Operational risk has a negative effect on sustainable growth and a positive effect on actual growth. Asset utilization positively affects sustainable growth and positively affects actual growth. (3) Business risk has a positive effect on sustainable growth but a negative on actual growth. …

Disruptive Change Within Financial Technology: A Methodological Analysis Of Digital Transformation Challenges, Laurie Hughes, Jonathan J. M. Seddon, Yogesh K. Dwivedi

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

The digital transformation of the FinTech industry has revealed a plethora of significant challenges for industry decision makers and wider stakeholder groups as organisations contend with the onset of new regulatory frameworks, legacy systems, flexible business models and alignment with corporate social responsibility practice. The reshaping of organisations and drive to greater levels of decentralisation and employee centric practice, presents a cultural shift for the sector, with implications for the success and resulting benefits of change across the industry. This study aims to develop novel insight to the ‘lived in’ impact of digital transformation within the FinTech industry from a …

The Relationship Between Responsible Financial Behaviours And Financial Wellbeing: The Case Of Buy-Now-Pay-Later, Robert Powell, Anh Do, Denise Gengatharen, Jaime Yong, Rasiah Gengatharen

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) in Australia is a rapidly growing payment innovation. Regulators and consumer groups have expressed concerns at the financial risks posed by BNPL. As BNPL is not regulated under consumer credit law, financial regulator and consumer groups have recommended that BNPL users adopt a range of responsible financial behaviours for their financial wellbeing. This study, using a survey of BNPL users and structural equation modelling, shows a link between most of these recommended financially responsible behaviours and financial wellbeing and that the financial behaviours of younger users (aged under 25) place them at greater risk of reduced financial wellbeing.

Forecasting Term Structure Of The Japanese Bond Yields In The Presence Of A Liquidity Trap, Albert K. Tsui, Junxiang Wu, Zhaoyong Zhang, Zhongxi Zheng

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

The Nelson–Siegel (NS) model is widely used in practice to fit the term structure of interest rates largely due to its high efficacy in the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting of bond yields. In this paper, we compare forecasting performances of estimated yields from the Nelson–Siegel-based models and some simpler time series models, using the daily, weekly, and monthly data during a prolong period of liquidity trap in Japan. We find that the out-of-sample expanding window forecasts by NS-based models in general perform less satisfactory than the competitor models. However, the NS-based models can be useful in forecasting yields over …

Accounting-Based Variables As An Early Warning Indicator Of Financial Distress In Crisis And Non-Crisis Periods, Robert J. Powell, Dung V. Dinh, Nam T. Vu, Duc H. Vo

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Financial integration in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is a key focus of the ASEAN Economic Community. Whereas many studies focus on modelling corporate default, this paper identifies early warning indicators of financial distress before a default, using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) models with a sample of listed and delisted companies in the ASEAN region. The analysis examines 720 companies in 10 different industries across six ASEAN countries from 1997 to 2016. The study constructs individual models for each country as well as an overall model for the entire region, using both in-sample and out-of-sample approaches. This …

Factors Affecting The Growth Of Small Privately-Owned Financial Planning Businesses, Darren A. Pawski, Robert J. Powell, Anna Golab

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Over the past 10 years, there have been many financial scandals in the financial advice industry, which has caused substantial losses for investors. Large wealth institutions controlled by major Australian banks have significantly contributed to investor losses by promoting their products which were not always in the best interests of clients. The aim of this study was to explore the factors affecting the current and future growth of small privately-owned financial planning businesses as a competitive marketplace provides better consumer outcomes. The study undertook a qualitative approach using an exploratory research design which involved the recruitment of 51 privately-owned financial …

A Note On The Relationship Between Covid-19 And Stock Market Return: Evidence From South Asia, Md Arafat Rahman, Md Mohsan Khudri, Muhammad Kamran, Pakeezah Butt

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Purpose:

The transformation of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) from a regional health crisis in a Chinese city to a global pandemic has caused severe damage not only to the natural and economic lives of human beings but also to the financial markets. The rapidly pervading and daunting consequences of COVID-19 spread have plummeted the stock markets to their lowest levels in many decades especially in South Asia. This concern motivates us to investigate the stock markets’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic in four South Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. This study aims to investigate the causal impact of …

Cryptocurrencies, Diversification And The Covid-19 Pandemic, David E. Allen

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

This paper features an analysis of cryptocurrencies and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their effectiveness as a portfolio diversification tool and explores the correlations between the continuously compounded returns on Bitcoin, Ethereum and the S&P500 Index using a variety of parametric and non-parametric techniques. These methods include linear standard metrics such as the application of ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and the Pearson, Spearman and Kendall’s tau measures of association. In addition, non-linear, non-parametric measures such as the Generalised Measure of Correlation (GMC) and non-parametric copula estimates are applied. The results across this range of measures are consistent. …

Impacts Of Combined Assurance On Integrated, Sustainability And Financial Reporting Qualities: Evidence From Listed Companies In South Africa, Augustine Donkor, Hadrian Geri Djajadikerta, Saiyidi Mat Roni

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

This study assesses the impacts of combined assurance (CA) quality on external reporting qualities (i.e., integrated, sustainability and financial reports). Data from listed firms on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa are used in this study. JSE is the largest stock exchange in Africa and, currently, the only capital market that mandates integrated reporting (IR) practice. This study uses content analysis to produce IR and CA quality data from IR reports and collects financial and sustainability quality data from the Bloomberg database. Ordinary least square (OLS) regression is used to test the models, together with a set of …

Financial News And Cds Spreads, Paresh Kumar Narayan, Deepa Bannigidadmath

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

© 2020 Elsevier B.V. This paper examines whether financial news moves CDS spreads for a large number of U.S. stocks sorted into 19 panels consisting of sectors, sizes and credit quality. Using a unique financial news data set, we discover that while both positive and negative news predicts CDS spread changes in most of the panels, annualised mean–variance profits and utility gains are dominated by forecasting models that use positive news as a predictor. At best, risk factors only account for around 31% of observed profits.

Uncovering Real Earnings Management: Pay Attention To Risk-Taking Behavior, Samar Alharbi, Md Al Mamun, Nader Atawnah

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

We examine the impact of corporate risk-taking on firm-level real earnings management. We find that firms with higher risk-taking engage in higher real earnings management. Our results are robust to a series of robustness tests, including simultaneous least squares approach, firm fixed effect, change analysis, and pseudo difference-in-difference analysis. Additional analyses reveal that the impact of risk-taking on real earnings management is more pronounced among firms that experience prior-year loss and are run by top-echelons who are risk lovers. Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) regulation does not attenuate the positive effect of risk-taking on real earnings management. However, external monitoring by institutional …

Trading Macro-Cycles Of Foreign Exchange Markets Using Hybrid Models, Joseph Z. B. Ling, Albert K. Tsui, Zhaoyong Zhang Prof

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Most existing studies on forecasting exchange rates focus on predicting next-period returns. In contrast, this study takes the novel approach of forecasting and trading the longer-term trends (macro-cycles) of exchange rates. It proposes a unique hybrid forecast model consisting of linear regression, multilayer neural network, and combination models embedded with technical trading rules and economic fundamentals to predict the macro-cycles of the selected currencies and investigate the predicative power and market timing ability of the model. The results confirm that the combination model has a significant predictive power and market timing ability, and outperforms the benchmark models in terms of …

Short-Term Capital Flows, Exchange Are Expectation And Currency Internationalization: Evidence From China, Mingming Li, Fengming Qin, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

This paper intended to employ a portfolio approach to assess the effect of exchange rate expectation on Chinese RMB internationalization and empirically test the interactive effects among short-term capital flows, RMB appreciation expectation and the internationalization process using a VAR model with monthly data ranging from February 2004 to December 2020. The results suggest that RMB exchange rate appreciation could lead to an increase in the foreign demand for RMB and RMB denominated assets, while RMB internationalization would attract more short-term capital inflow due to the reduced transaction costs. The empirical evidence from the VAR model estimation confirms the finding …

Impact Of Covid-19 On Cryptocurrencies: Evidence On Information Transmission Through Economic And Financial Market Sentiments, Irfan Haider Shakri, Jaime Yong, Erwei Xiang

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

This paper investigates the relationship between the COVID-19 crisis and the two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, from 31 December 2019 to 18 August 2020. We also use an economic news sentiment index and financial market sentiment index to explore the possible mechanisms through which COVID-19 impacts cryptocurrency. We employ a VAR Granger Causality framework and Wavelet Coherence Analysis and find the cryptocurrency market was impacted in the early phase of the sample period through economic news and financial market sentiments, but this effect diminished after June 2020.

Does Corporate Eco-Innovation Affect Stock Price Crash Risk?, Rashid Zaman, Nader Atawnah, Muhammad Haseeb, Muhammad Nadeem, Saadia Irfan

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

We examine the effect of corporate environmental innovation (hereafter eco-innovation) on stock price crash risk and document a significant negative association. Utilising a large sample of publicly listed U.S. firms for the period 2003 to 2017, we find that an increase in eco-innovation from the 25th to the 75th percentile is associated with 17.62% reduction in stock price crash risk. This outcome remains robust to a variety of sensitivity tests and after accounting for potential endogeneity concerns. Eco-innovative firms attract more institutional investors and equity analyst following and disclose more information leading to lower stock price crash risk. Additional tests …

Non-Traditional Systemic Risk Contagion Within The Chinese Banking Industry, Tonmoy Choudhury, Simone Scagnelli, Jaime L.P. Yong, Zhaoyong Zhang Prof

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Systemic risk contagion is a key issue in the banking sector in maintaining financial system stability. This study is among the first few to use three different distance-to-risk measures to empirically assess the domestic interbank linkages and systemic contagion risk of the Chinese banking industry, by using bivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model on data collected from eight prominent Chinese banks for the period 2006–2018. The results show a relatively high correlation among almost all the banks, suggesting an interconnectedness among the banks. We found evidence that the banking system is exposed to significant domestic contagion risks arising from systemic …

Consumer Sentiment And Indonesia’S Stock Returns, Deepa Bannigidadmath

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

© Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 2020. All Rights Reserved. This paper examines whether consumer sentiment predicts the excess returns of the aggregate market and nine industries from the Indonesia equity market. We discover evidence of predictability for three industries; however, the magnitude of predictability are heterogeneous. Some sectors are predictable during expansions, whereas others are only predictable during recessions. There is no evidence of the reversal of the impact of consumer sentiment on stock returns. We conduct several robustness tests that include (i) estimating a predictive regression model with a feasible quasi-generalized least squares–based estimator and (ii) accounting for …

Stochastic Volatility And Garch: Do Squared End-Of-Day Returns Provide Similar Information?, David Edmund Allen

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

The paper examines the relative performance of Stochastic Volatility (SV) and GARCH(1,1) models fitted to twenty plus years of daily data for three indices. As a benchmark, I use the realized volatility (RV) for the S&P 500, DOW JONES and STOXX50 indices, sampled at 5-minute intervals, taken from the Oxford Man Realised Library. Both models demonstrate comparable performance and are correlated to a similar extent with the RV estimates, when measured by OLS. However, a crude variant of Corsi’s (2009) Heterogenous Auto-Regressive (HAR) model, applied to squared demeaned daily returns on the indices, appears to predict the daily RV of …

Modelling Cross-Market Linkages Between Global Markets And China’S A-, B- And H-Shares, Thi Tuan Anh Do

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

One of the biggest challenges in quantifying joint risk and forming effective policies in financial management and investment strategies is to fully understand the characteristics of market associations in low and high volatility periods. Market interdependence, therefore, is a hot topic that has received interest from academics and industry experts, especially since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. China, being the world’s second-largest economy, has been the centre of many studies investigating stock market dependencies. While China has three major share types, namely A-, B- and H-shares, with different market players, market characteristics and operating efficiency, the number of studies …

Challenges And Trends In Sustainable Corporate Finance: A Bibliometric Systematic Review, Tad Dat Bui, Mohd Helmi Ali, Feng Ming Tsai, Mohammad Iranmanesh, Ming-Lang Tseng, Ming K. Lim

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Sustainable corporate finance is an attractive field of study in sustainability literature; however, the literature lacks systematic bibliometric analysis that provides a comprehensive review to clarify state-of-the-art sustainable corporate finance and that discusses new opportunities and potential instructions for further studies. To address this gap, this study adopts a literature review, bibliometric analysis, network analysis and co-wording technique to systematically investigate the Scopus database. In total, 30 keywords listed at least three times are used and are divided into six clusters considering six fields of research, namely, corporate finance in corporate sustainability, sustainable competitive advantages, sustainable stakeholder engagement, circular economy, …

Rmb Exchange Rates And Volatility Spillover Across Financial Markets In China And Japan, Fengming Qin, Junru Zhang, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

This study examines empirically the volatility spillover effects between the RMB foreign exchange markets and the stock markets by employing daily returns of the Chinese RMB exchange rates and the stock markets in China and Japan during the period in 1998–2018. We find evidence that there exist co-volatility effects among the financial markets in China and Japan, and the volatility of RMB exchange rates contribute to the co-volatility spillovers across the financial markets. Reversely, the return shock from the stock markets can also generate co-volatility spillover to the foreign exchange markets. The bidirectional relationship reveals that both the fundamental hypothesis …

Do Nonparametric Measures Of Extreme Equity Risk Change The Parametric Ordinal Ranking? Evidence From Asia, Robert J. Powell, Duc H. Vo., Thach N. Pham

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

There has been much discussion in the literature about how central measures of equity risk such as standard deviation fail to account for extreme tail risk of equities. Similarly, parametric measures of value at risk (VaR) may also fail to account for extreme risk as they assume a normal distribution which is often not the case in practice. Nonparametric measures of extreme risk such as nonparametric VaR and conditional value at risk (CVaR) have often been found to overcome this problem by measuring actual tail risk without applying any predetermined assumptions. However, this article argues that it is not just …

Modelling And Forecasting Stock Price Movements With Serially Dependent Determinants, Rasika Yatigammana, Shelton Peiris, Richard Gerlach, David Edmund Allen

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

The direction of price movements are analysed under an ordered probit framework, recognising the importance of accounting for discreteness in price changes. By extending the work of Hausman et al. (1972) and Yang and Parwada (2012),This paper focuses on improving the forecast performance of the model while infusing a more practical perspective by enhancing flexibility. This is achieved by extending the existing framework to generate short term multi period ahead forecasts for better decision making, whilst considering the serial dependence structure. This approach enhances the flexibility and adaptability of the model to future price changes, particularly targeting risk minimisation. Empirical …

Mobile Banking Adoption By Senior Citizens In Australia, Madugoda Gunaratnege Senali

ECU Posters

Mobile banking is technological innovation provided by banks to its customers to do their banking activities such as, viewing account balances, paying bills, transfer of funds and checking new offers and products through their smart phones by using mobile banking application. Though mobile banking has raised high expectations in research and practice, it neither experienced broad adoption nor allows it banks to realize additional earnings yet. This research aims to investigate the factors affecting the mobile banking adoption by senior citizens in Australia by using technology acceptance models. It's important to improve the mobile banking amongst senior Australians to enhance …

Impact Of Corporate Governance On Capital Structure Of Pakistan, Irfan Haider Shakri

ECU Posters

Corporate Governance-CG is a mechanism that protects the interest of all stakeholders specially shareholders in a modern economic and corporate world that is responsible for economic growth of an economy. Capital structure is one of the weightiest decision that effects the performance of the firm. This study empirically finds how corporate governance practices impact the capital structure of the firm.

Quality, Determinants And Consequences Of Integrated Reporting In South Africa, Kwadjo Appiagyei

ECU Posters

Integrated reporting (IR) is expected to be the next corporate reporting norm which combines the relevant financial and sustainability information in one report to meet the needs of capital providers. IR application all over the world has been largely voluntary while South Africa has introduced a mandatory apply or explain basis for firms on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Although numerous benefits have been attributed to IR, empirical evidence to support these assertions and establish a business case for the adoption of IR is desirable. The research examines the mandatory South African context for the quality of IR since its application …

Distance To Default, Viet Dung Dinh

ECU Posters

This poster covers default risk and the significance of the Distance to Default (DD) model in predicting financial distress for 6 countries in the ASEAN region.