Business Commons^™

Triple Crown -- Does It Matter For The Market?, Steven D. Dolvin

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For the first time in 37 years, a horse (American Pharoah) has won the Triple Crown. The previous ten times this has happened, the stock market has lost an average of 9% over the remainder of the year. This adds to the expanding debate of Behavioral Finance vs. Market Efficiency.

Battle Of The Sexes, Steven D. Dolvin

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As this recent WSJ article points out, men and women approach investing differently. The best investors may be those who are able to capture the "best of both worlds."

Short Term Market Indicators, Steven D. Dolvin

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For those interested in technical analysis, some traders are suggesting that the market is set for a pull back. See article and video here, Yahoo.

S&P Breaks Key Tecnical Mark, Steven D. Dolvin

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The S&P fell below its 200-day moving average, a key negative technical indicator. Investors should pay close attention to see if this level holds. See article here, yahoo.

Vanguard Vs. The Industry, Steven D. Dolvin

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For years, Jack Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) has touted the benefit of passive investing, which is primarily driven by the relatively low fees they charge. Moreover, Bogle has highlighted the inability of active investors to outperform the market. Recent large investor flows into Vanguard products suggests that investors are increasingly agreeing with Bogle. See article here, WSJ.

Do Women Generate Better Returns?, Steven D. Dolvin

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Some prior research suggests that women make for better investors, primarily because they generally trade less than men (meaning lower transaction costs). However, a new fund aims to exploit the benefit women may provide as board members. The Barclays Women in Leadership ETN will invest in companies with a female CEO or a board that has a membership of at least 25% women. See here for an article that discusses the new fund (WSJ).

See previous post (ETFs vs. ETNs) for a discussion of the fund structure.

Time To Sell?, Steven D. Dolvin

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For technical traders, it may be time to sell. While the market has yet to make a "death cross," some other indicators are saying sell. In particular, a recent WSJ article identified three signals that recently occurred in tandem: overvaluation based on earnings multiples, extreme divergence in sector performance, and excessive levels of bullish enthusiasm. This combination has occurred six times since 1970, with each event resulting in market drops of at least 22%. Will this happen again?

Triple Crown And The Stock Market, Steven D. Dolvin

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The "Super Bowl Indicator" is widely known, as the winner of the Super Bowl has been correlated to overall stock market performance. While this does not imply causation, is does make for an interesting discussion of market efficiency. A similar item is the performance of the stock market in years when a horse wins the Triple Crown--the results are not good. So, many people may be watching how California Chrome does in the upcoming Belmont Stakes. See article here, WSJ.

The Benefit Of Financial Advisors, Steven D. Dolvin

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Many individual investors believe that the primary role of a financial advisor is to "pick stocks." However, research shows that not only are active managers not able to outperform the market consistently, but that the security selection piece is really not the most important determinant of portfolio return. The key issue is asset allocation. A recent report (see article here, InvestmentNews) suggests that financial advisors can add value, but primarily from activities unrelated to security selection: determining asset allocation, helping clients avoid behavioral errors, facilitating rebalancing, reducing fees, and managing taxes and withdrawals.

Technical Analysis, Steven D. Dolvin

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While many investors (particularly those who subscribe to market efficiency) suggest that technical analysis is worthless, market participants still generally track charts, including resistance and support levels, as well as moving averages. With the market recently testing its support and bouncing to higher levels, technical analysts will continue to monitor charts to see if the positive momentum can continue. See article here, Reuters.

Target Date Funds, Steven D. Dolvin

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Target Date (or "lifecycle") Funds are investments on "auto pilot." Fund managers allocate assets across funds based on the set (target) retirement date and manage the allocation accordingly as time passes. These funds are best suited as "all or nothing" investments, meaning investors should put all their money in a target date fund or else manage their assets on their own. Unfortunately, many investors allocate funds to lifecycle investments as if it were its own investment category. This is particularly true in retirement plans where participants often exhibit the "1/n" phenomenon, allocating there money equally across the "n" investments in …

Google Search, Steven D. Dolvin

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A recent study (See paper here, Nature) finds that the level of searches by particular terms is highly correlated to overall portfolio returns, particularly when trading strategies are based on these terms. The idea is that the search terms are a predictor of trading behavior, whether bullish or bearish.

History Lesson: Momentum, Steven D. Dolvin

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We often talk about buying low and selling high, but many individual investors often do the opposite. Particularly in retail accounts and 401(k) plans, investors are often "late to the party," waiting until the market hits a high to reenter. This behavioral bias results in momentum that may drive the market higher, but how long is the key question. Further, investors would be better suited taking a more disciplined periodic investment approach. With the market just hitting a high, this issue is currently at play. (See article here, WSJ.)

Death Cross For Gold, Steven D. Dolvin

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For technical traders, a death cross is definitely a sell sign. A death cross occurs when a shorter term moving average (such as the 50 day) crosses a longer term moving average (such as the 200 day) to the downside. Gold recently experienced such an event. However, fundamental traders are often at odds with this belief. (See article here, Yahoo Finance.)

Apple: Head And Shoulders, Steven D. Dolvin

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In technical analysis, traders look for patterns in stock prices, which they then use to determine buy/sell decisions. One such pattern is the "head and shoulders," which, as the name suggests, is two small peaks, with a larger one in the middle. Such a pattern is often considered bearish, particularly if the price breaks through the "neckline." Unfortunately (or not, depending on your view of technical analysis), Apple's share price recently exhibited this pattern. See the article here, Yahoo.

Media = Contrarian Indicator, Steven D. Dolvin

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The media often focuses on financial stories; however, they tend to be late to the game. Meaning, once they report on an event, the market has likely already digested it. Recently, Bespoke Investment Group found that the number of financial stories posted on the Drudge Report was negatively correlated to the subsequent market performance. See the article here, Yahoo.

Target Date Funds, Steven D. Dolvin

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Target date funds (or lifecycle funds) have simplified the investment process for many people. However, they are not without their own potential problems and differences. This article (CNN Money) gives a good overview of the main issues.

Contrarian Indicator - Short Sales?, Steven D. Dolvin

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Short positions spiked recently, eclipsing the recent peak in 2011. After the previous peak, stock prices stages a five-month rally. Hopefully it will be the same this time. See article here, Bloomberg.

Don Quixote -- Investment Guru??, Steven D. Dolvin

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Don Quixote is a well-known literary figure, most commonly remembered for seeing the world through his own lens. He fights windmills thinking they are giants and slaughters a flock of sheep because they look like a mighty army. As investors do we make similar mistakes--seeing an asset the way we want to instead of the way it actually is? See article here, CFA Magazine.

"Dumb Money" Pushing Treasuries, Steven D. Dolvin

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Demand for Treasury bonds pushes prices up and yields lower. Given that Treasury yields are at all-time lows, the implication is that demand for these securities has increased. Many attribute this to buying by the Fed, but this demand is really being driven by retail investors. For contrarian investors, this would be an indicator to sell Treasuries, as retail investors are often referred to as "dumb money." See the article here, CNBC.

Health Or Money?, Steven D. Dolvin

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When asked whether they would have health or money, most people would probably choose money. However, a recent study shows that investors actually trust their investment advisors more than their doctors. So, does this imply they care more about their money than their health?????? See the article here, Investment News.