Business Commons^™

Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 14, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Departmental Papers (E & F)

No abstract provided.

The Marginalist Revolution In Corporate Finance: 1880-1965, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

All Faculty Scholarship

During the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries fundamental changes in economic thought revolutionized the theory of corporate finance, leading to changes in its legal regulation. The changes were massive, and this branch of financial analysis and law became virtually unrecognizable to those who had practiced it earlier. The source of this revision was the marginalist, or neoclassical, revolution in economic thought. The classical theory had seen corporate finance as an historical, relatively self-executing inquiry based on the classical theory of value and administered by common law courts. By contrast, neoclassical value theory was forward looking and as a result …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 14, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Departmental Papers (E & F)

No abstract provided.

From Boom To Doom To Boom: Offshore Financial Centres And Development In Small States, Richard Woodward

Articles

During the 1990s tax havens and offshore financial centres (OFCs) were subject to a string of initiatives designed to raise their tax and regulatory regimes to accepted international standards. Many commentators forecast that this would lead to the demise of OFCs, a worry for the many small states whose economic well being depended heavily on the provision of offshore financial services. Despite this regulatory onslaught many small state OFCs have prospered in the new millennium. This paper seeks to explain this apparent paradox by arguing that (1) international initiatives were riddled with loopholes and exceptions that have been gleefully seized …

A Preface To Neoclassical Legal Thought, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

All Faculty Scholarship

Most legal historians speak of the period following classical legal thought as “progressive legal thought.” That term creates an unwarranted bias in characterization, however, creating the impression that conservatives clung to an obsolete “classical” ideology, when in fact they were in many ways just as revisionist as the progressives legal thinkers whom they critiqued. The Progressives and New Deal thinkers whom we identify with progressive legal thought were nearly all neoclassical, or marginalist, in their economics, but it is hardly true that all marginalists were progressives. For example, the lawyers and policy makers in the corporate finance battles of the …

The Implications Of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment On Capital Markets: A Bottom-Up View, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The buzz around sovereign wealth funds has been turned down a notch, but they remain a hot topic. The accusations of sovereign wealth funds having hidden agendas remain, but with the very public losses suffered by some during the recent financial turmoil, such talk has even less credibility. And given that most of those losses were from investments in US, UK, and European financial institutions, hope that sovereign wealth funds would be the saviors of Wall Street has also faded. At its base, four trends continue to keep sovereign wealth funds in focus. First, there is the phenomenal rise of …

Investment Styles, Fees, & Returns Among Individually Managed & Team Managed Mutual Funds, Kendal Cehanowicz

Honors Projects in Finance

Identifying a successful mutual fund investment involves a crucial analysis of alternatives, all of which influence the true benefit of the investment. Major considerations must include performance, management and fees; which ultimately determine investment returns. Studies have shown that team managed mutual funds exhibit similar risk adjusted performance to individually managed mutual funds, however studies lack this comparison of performance based on fund fees and investment objective. This gap in research implies that there is an opportunity to examine how fund management, investment objective, and fund fees affect overall returns to the investor. Using the 2010 Center for Research in …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 14, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Carlos Morales, Francisco Pallares

Departmental Papers (E & F)

No abstract provided.

Monopsony And Salary Suppression: The Case Of Major League Soccer In The United States, John Twomey, James Monks

Economics Faculty Publications

Top tier professional soccer in the United States is operated by Major League Soccer (MLS). The MLS was established and operates under a single entity structure, such that all players negotiate and sign contracts with the league rather than with individual teams. This monopsonistic structure was designed to eliminate competition for players across teams within the league and thus allow the league to suppress player salaries. This paper investigates how effective the MLS has been in achieving this goal and finds that the MLS devotes only about 25 percent of its revenues to player salaries, compared to 50 to 60 …

The Unintended Effects Of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Vidhi Chhaochharia, Clemens A. Otto, Vikrant Vig

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) was passed in the wake of several scandals that rocked corporate America in 2001 and 2002. The objective behind SOX was to improve corporate governance by improving accounting disclosures. Compliance with Section 404 is considered by many to be the most costly requirement of SOX and has been argued to be a disproportionate burden for small firms. Consequently, firms with a public float below $75 million were granted several exemptions from compliance. We document an unintended effect of these exemptions: a weakening of corporate governance through a weakening of the market for corporate control.

Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the …

The Economic Value Of A Sustainable Supply Chain, Robert Mefford

Finance

The economic rationale to operate a global supply chain in a sustainable manner is developed. Arguments are made based on marketing, finance, and production theories that by engaging in socially responsible behavior the firm will increase sales, decrease costs, reduce financial risk, and increase profits which ultimately will increase returns to the firm’s shareholders. A model is developed of the mechanism by which modern production methods such as lean production and quality management result in sustainable corporate behavior which, in the long run, translates into higher stock valuations. The production effects cause marketing and financial risk effects that are complementary, …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 14, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Teodulo Soto

Departmental Papers (E & F)

No abstract provided.

Using Real World Applications To Policy And Everyday Life To Teach Money And Banking, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Teaching a course in money and banking can be simultaneously challenging and easy. It is challenging because teaching the course well often requires a fair amount of institutional knowledge, which an instructor may not have acquired in graduate school. However, it is easy because the course can be geared to the coverage of current events, so economic data releases and the state of the economy help the instructor develop a new course every semester and produce an interesting lecture every day.

There are many different ways to teach a course on money and banking. At most schools, the only prerequisite …

Forex Trading Using Metatrader 4 With The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Kieran Murphy

Conference papers

This paper reports on the results of a research and development programme concerned with the analysis of currency pair exchange time series for Forex trading in an intensive applications and services environment. In particular, we present some of the preliminary results obtained for Forex trading using MetaTrader 4 with a new set of trend indicators deigned using a mathematical model that is based on the Fractal Market Hypothesis. This includes examples of various currency pair exchange rates considered over different time intervals and use of the indicators in a live trading environment to place a buy/sell order.

Quasi-Option Value Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a simple two-period model of irreversible investment under strategic interactions between two players. In this setup, we show that the quasi-option value may cause some conceptual difficulties. In case of asymmetric information, decentralized investment decisions fail to induce first-best allocations. Therefore a regulator may not be able to exercise the option to delay the decision to develop. We also show that information-induced inefficiency may arise in a game situation and that under certain assumptions inefficiency can be eliminated by sending asymmetric information to the players, even when the regulator faces informational constraints. Our model is potentially applicable to …

International Comparisons Of Bank Regulation, Liberalization, And Banking Crises, Puspa Amri, Apanard P. Angkinand, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Purpose: The recurrence of banking crises throughout the 1980s and 1990s, and in the more recent 2008-09 global financial crisis, has led to an expanding empirical literature on crisis explanation and prediction. This paper provides an analytical review of proxies for and important determinants of banking crises − credit growth, financial liberalization, bank regulation and supervision.

Design/Methodology/Approach: The study surveys the banking crisis literature by comparing proxies for and measures of banking crises and policy-related variables in the literature. Advantages and disadvantages of different proxies are discussed.

Findings: Disagreements about determinants of banking crises are in part …

The Impact Of Transaction Duration, Volume And Direction On Price Dynamics And Volatility, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the role of trade volume, trade direction, and the duration between trades in explaining price dynamics and volatility using an Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration model applied to intraday transactions data. Our results suggest that volume, direction and duration are important determinants of price dynamics, while duration is also an important determinant of volatility. However, the impact of volume and direction on volatility is marginal after controlling for duration, and the impact of volume on volatility appears to be confined to periods of infrequent trading.

The Political Economy Of Fraud On The Market, William W. Bratton, Michael L. Wachter

All Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.