Business Commons^™

Mortgage Refinancing In Nigeria: Prospects And Challenges, Kama Ukpai, Phebian N. Bewaji, Adigun Mustapha, Olufemi Adetunji Edun, Olubukola Adegbe, Josiah Dassah

Bullion

The paper examines the mortgage (re)finance market in Nigeria with a view to identifying its prospects and challenges. The method adopted included a review of jurisdictional experiences on mortgage refinance and thereafter draw on some lessons of experience as the Nigeria case is considered as a country in transition. Further discussions centered on the challenges of financialization of mortgages, mortgage affordability, low awareness of mortgage refinancing, macroprudential risks and moral hazard that confronts mortgage refinance in the country. The paper, further, provides considerations with regard to value-reorientation, institutional, regulatory and legal infrastructures as prerequisites for successful mortgage refinance system.

Us Policy Of Technology Transfer To China, Amna Mehmood, Sadaf Farooq

Business Review

Hans Morgenthau defined international politics as the struggle for power among nations. Initially power was understood in terms of security and military supremacy only. But time has proved that military power is only effective when it is supported by a strong economy. Especially in post-Cold War era when the world is transforming from uni-polar to multi-polar world on the basis of competing economic centres, political economy has attained equal importance at par with the international security studies, if not more. One of the most important and sensitive area of international political economy is technology transfer, a life bloodfor modernization of …

The Nexus Of Financial Deepening, Economic Growth, And Poverty: The Case Of Pakistan, Abdur Rehman Aleemi, Muhammad Azam

Business Review

This study investigates the nexus of financial development, economic growth, and poverty for Pakistan over a prolonged period of time, 1960- 2012. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds testing approach to co integration and Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM)along with VECM Granger causality have been applied to examine the long-run dynamic relationship among financial development, economic development and poverty. For that purpose, we have developed two models and adopted a new and relatively strong proxy for financial development. The results suggest that financial development negatively affects both long-run and short-run economic growth. However, financial development is found to be positively affecting per …

Global Dominance Potential Of Chinese Corporations, Javed A. Ansari

Business Review

Thispaper assesses the corporate strength of Chinese firms in the global market and addresses the question: does China's growing corporate strength indicate a rise in its global influence, or, in other words, what are the prospects for the emergence of capitalism with Chinese characteristics as the new dominant paradigm. It finds that Chinese corporations have significantly improved their global profit share in several sectors during 2007-2013. Many of these corporations are Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that play a dominant role. Summarizing a recent case study of Chinese SOE strategy in the Zambian copper belt it provides evidence for close interaction …

Moving Average Stratification Algorithm For Strata Boundary Determination In Skewed Populations, Akeem O. Kareem, Isaac O. Oshungade, Gafar M. Oyeyemi, Adebowale O. Adejumo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Moving Average Stratification (MAS) is a new competing and simple algorithm for strata boundary determination in Stratified Sampling. It eliminates arbitrary choice of class interval associated with cumulative square root of frequency method (Dalenius and Hodges Rule (DHR) 1959) and the inherent geometric gaps created within strata by Geometric Stratification (GMS) of Gunning & Horgan (2004). It competes favorably well with DHR and GMS in terms of its precision, simplicity and speeds and therefore recommended for use in strata boundaries determination especially in skewed populations.

Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, …

Gdp Per Capita In Africa Before The Global Financial Crisis: Persistence, Mean Reversion And Long Memory Features, Luis A. Gil-Alana, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Olanrewaju I. Shittu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examined the long memory features of GDP per capita data before the global financial crisis, using a sample of 26 African countries. The study employed fractional integration and tested the stability of the differencing parameter across the sample period for each country. The results indicated that most of the countries’ GDP series were I(1) or higher. Evidence of mean reversion was observed in 10 countries where the disturbances were autocorrelated. There was strong evidence against mean reversion in the remaining 16 countries. The results also indicated that the fractional differencing parameter was stable in 17 countries, while the …

Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers, forecasters and the general public. Recent studies indicated the possibility of a slowdown in output, resulting from the pessimism of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria. The study applied the Granger Causality tests, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition to assess if CCI granger causes output growth as well as ascertain the magnitude …

Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the relationship among dollarization, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria for the period 1986-2015Q1. It adopts inter-temporal model of money-in-utility (MIU) with an estimation technique of structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Empirical evidence shows that dollarization index has been on the increase in Nigeria since 1994, despite stable and low inflation and interest rate. Results of the cointegration show long run equilibrium among dollarization, inflation and interest rate. The Granger causality test reveals that there is a unidirectional relationship from dollarization to inflation in Nigeria. This suggests that policies that aim to reduce inflation in Nigeria must include …

Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2013, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The survey of foreign assets and liabilities of enterprises in Nigeria was conducted in 2014 to determine the 2013 stock of foreign assets/liabilities of Nigerian enterprises, as well as receiving sectors and origination/destination regions. The survey collected relevant information from 740 enterprises, and analysis of survey returns indicated that the total private foreign liabilities as at end-2013 was N12, 639.27 billion up by 5.08 per cent above its level in 2012. Of this total, 96.7 per cent was in the form of foreign direct investments, while foreign portfolio investments and other capital flows accounted for 0.4 and 2.9 per cent, …

Estimating Bull And Bear Betas For The Nigerian Stock Market Using Logistic Smooth Threshold Model, Mohammed T. Tumala, Olaoluwa S. Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this paper, we examine the Nigerian stock market sector returns and estimate the bull and bear betas using the Logistic Smooth Threshold Market (LSTM) model. The LSTM model specification follows from the linear Constant Risk Market (CRM) model. We estimate the LSTM model for the overall sampled daily time series from 2001 to 2012 using the conditional nonlinear least squares approach. We also estimate the model for each of the All share Index (ASI) sub-samples taking the time of financial crisis (February 2008) as the break point. The results show the significant correlations of stocks returns in each market …

Technical Notes On Balance Of Payments Compilation And Analysis: The Case Of Nigeria, Ubong S. Udoette

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses some technical issues in Balance of Payment compilation and analysis. It summarized major components of the BOP statistics, the various account balances as well as the interrelationship between them and other macroeconomic aggregates. It goes further to discuss data related issues in the compilation of Nigeria’s BOP statistics with the aim of providing better insight to future/new compilers, policy and other economic analysts.

On Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria’S External Reserves, Doguwa I. Sani, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous input (SARIMA-X) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) processes. The performances of the proposed models are compared with the existing model obtained using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in …

Impact Of The 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis On The Stock Market In Nigeria, Peter Njiforti

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The convergence of global economy makes all countries and all markets sensible to the happenings in other countries (the contagious effect). The 2008 global financial crisis that had its origin from USA was alleged to have had varying degree of impacts on different capital markets in various countries. This paper investigated the impact of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis on the Nigerian capital market. Monthly time series data from January 2006 to December 2009. All Share Index (ASI) was used as proxy for the performance of the Nigerian Capital market, while Credit to the Private Sector (CPS), Price of Crude …

Nonlinear Adjustments Between Exchange Rates And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Ubong S. Udoette, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Rabia A. Muhammad

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the long run relationship between exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria during 1990Q1 – 2012Q4. We confirm the existence of threshold cointegration between the variables in Nigeria, as against linear cointegration. Consequently, a two-regime threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) is estimated via maximum likelihood procedure. Model results indicate that cointegration between the variables occurs only when the equilibrium error exceeds an estimated threshold parameter of 0.52. Having partitioned the TVECM into two regimes based on the obtained threshold, we find that the error correction coefficients of the exchange rate in the two regimes are not …

Investigating The Dynamics Of Bank Credit In Nigeria: The Role Of Bank Consolidation, Olorunsola E. Olowofeso, Abiodun S. Bada, Adeyemi A. Adeboye, Valli T. Adejo, Kufre J. Bassey, Kumafan S. Dzaan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dynamics of deposit money banks (DMB) credit and the role of consolidation in credit growth in Nigeria using vector error correction model and Granger causality test. The empirical investigation involved DMBs that have maintained a unique name and some market characteristics before and after the 2004 banking sector consolidation. Using quarterly data from 1999Q1 – 2013Q2 of the selected DMBs, the results show a positive relationship between post-consolidation credit supply growth and the real gross domestic product. The results also show that despite the onesided positive causality from credit supply to economic growth, the total contribution …

Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Growth And Human Resource Development In Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach, Elijah Udoh, Udoma Afangideh, Elias A. Udeaja

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

There is a widespread belief that fiscal decentralization is an effective tool for increasing the efficiency of public expenditures. Decentralization is expected to boost accountability and transparency in the provision of public goods for the well-being of the society. However, countervailing views maintain that little or no impact has been created at the periphery in terms of improving the welfare of the people in Nigeria. The main objective of this paper was to investigate how the decentralized system of expenditure impacted on human resource development in Nigeria. Using ARDL/Bounds Testing approach and data for the period 1980 to 2012, the …

On The Compilation Of Labour Force Statistics For Nigeria, Yemi Kale, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Computing unemployment rate using a 40 hours a week benchmark implies that any person who has worked for less than 40 hours during the reference week is considered unemployed. This method has become outdated given the present realities of the working environment in Nigeria, particularly, considering the nature of certain activities in the service sector of the economy. This document presents the new definition and revised methodology that is used to re-compute the labour force statistics in Nigeria between 2010 to 2014 Q4. The high rate of underemployment among age “25-34” years showcased the difficulty associated with youth and graduate …

Currency Substitution: Evidence From Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the existence, causes and effects of currency substitution in Nigeria by estimating conventional money demand equations based on a partial adjustment and an autoregressive distributed lag models using three definitions of monetary aggregates. The behavior of the foreign currency/Naira deposit ratios have been influenced by devaluation expectations, exchange rate risks and political uncertainties during the Yar’adua-Jonathan presidency. Also, the money demand estimations reveal that short-term foreign interest rates significantly affect the demand for the Naira, suggesting strong evidence of currency substitution and the possibility of importing considerable instability in the economy.

Is Real Exchange Rate Misalignment A Leading Indicator Of Currency Crises In Nigeria?, Babatunde S. Omotosho

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper constructs an early warning system for currency crises in Nigeria based on selected key macroeconomic indicators. It estimates the probabilities of currency crises as a logistic function of the included variables within the framework of a logit model. Particularly, the extent to which real exchange rate misalignment (RERMIS) could be used as a leading indicator of currency crisis is investigated by including its lag in the model. Our findings show that the likelihood of currency crisis increases when the real exchange rate is misaligned; the exchange rate is volatile; oil price declines; debt/GDP ratio increases; and the current …

Queue Modelling For Successful Implementation Of The Cash-Less Policy In Nigeria, Amos N. Dauda, Kenneth N. Korve, Onuche P. Agada

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In line with the realization of the vision of the cash-less policy as being fronted by the Central Bank of Nigeria, this paper seeks to solve problems of long waiting time and queue lengths of customers known to be associated with the queuing system of the Automated Teller Machine (ATM), an indispensable piece of machinery for successful implementation of the policy. To this end, the M/G/1 model, a single-channel queuing model with Poisson arrivals, General distribution service time has been applied in modelling the ATM queuing system across three commercial banks: Guarantee Trust Bank (GTB), Diamond bank and Ecobank all …

An Assessment Of Microlending Programs In The Alabama Black Belt Region, Md Z. Mutaleb, Ntam R. Baharanyi, Nii O. Tackie, Robert Zabawa

Professional Agricultural Workers Journal

Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of selected socioeconomic factors on microlending in the Alabama Black Belt. It used logistic regression to identify the link between borrower socioeconomic characteristics and loan repayment rate from existing and previous microloan programs. It was hypothesized that borrower gender, age, level of education, household income, and credit score has a major impact on loan repayment. The results of study indicated that only credit score had a statistically significant effect on loan repayment. This finding underscores the importance of credit score and credit repair management in existing microloan programs, given …

Assessing Alabama Consumer Attitudes And Beliefs About Locally Or Regionally Produced Livestock And Products, Nii O. Tackie, Jannette R. Bartlett, Akua Adu-Gyamfi

Professional Agricultural Workers Journal

Abstract

Local and regional food production has gained increased interest of consumers in recent years. The study, therefore, focused on assessing consumer attitudes and beliefs on local or regional livestock products. Data were obtained from a convenience sample of 432 participants from South Central Alabama, and were analyzed using descriptive statistics, including chi-square tests. A majority of respondents thought using chemicals and additives in locally or regionally produced beef or goat meat was a serious hazard. Therefore, many were willing to pay more for meat certified as locally or regionally produced. Also, most agreed or strongly agreed with statements on …

The Easy Expensive Way Doesn't Work. Why Not Try The Difficult Cheap Way?, Karl A. Koehler

Purdue Policy Research Institute (PPRI) Policy Briefs

Smokestack chasing and related ad hoc efforts to create techno/commercial clusters are examples of failed economic development activities, because they are generally poorly integrated into the networks of interactions that support a local, state, or national economy. This is a general problem because it is difficult to characterize and understand such complex webs of interactions. Thus, it is the dynamic complexity of combined state innovation systems, related policy systems, and the broader economy that stands between state governors and legislators, their piecemeal enactment of ‘economic development initiatives’, and the economic growth they desire. This brief describes the social, governmental, and …

Determining The Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument For Nigeria, Solomon I. Udom, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

It is considered inapt for central banks to adjust reserve money (quantity of money) and interest rate (price of money) at the same time. Thus, necessitates the need for a choice instrument. Enough evidence abounds in microeconomic theory on the undesirability of manipulating both price and quantity simultaneously in a free market structure. The market, in line with the consensus among economists, either controls the price and allows quantity to be determined by market forces, or influence quantity, leaving prices in the hands of the forces of demand and supply. This paper is, therefore, an attempt to examine the optimal …

Impact Of Board Characteristics And Audit Committee On Financial Performance: A Study Of Manufacturing Sector Of Pakistan, Arfan Ali, Saad Bin Nasir

Business Review

The research will examine the role of corporate governance (CG) practices on firm’s financial performance. Population of this research will be manufacture sector of Pakistan. For the purposes of measurement of impact of corporate governance practices such as board size, board independence, CEO/chairman duality and audit committee will take as independent variables and for the measurement of firm’s performance return on assets and return on equity will take as dependent variables. Panel data regression model will used to estimate the impact of CG on firm performance.

Profiling Organizational Culture Of Different Sectors In Pakistan, Zaki Rashidi, Nadeem A. Syed, Sajida Zaki

Business Review

Organizational Culture is gaining importance in the modern organization theory and research. Mangers are more emphasizing to understand the culture and climate of their organization to enhance the effectiveness and productivity of the organization. Organizational development practitioners and change management flag bearers harmoniously favoring to comprehend the culture of any organization for any kind of change or transformation. Organizational Culture Profile (OCP) provides the basic tool to analyze and figure out the type and nature of cultural stream of any organization. The OCP helps to create the cultural-profile of the organization through a survey of the employees. This study encompasses …

Determinants Of Capital Structure Of Service And Manufacturing Sectors Of Pakistani Companies Listed In Karachi Stock Exchange, Zahid Ali Channar, Manisha Bai Maheshwari, Piribhat Abbasi

Business Review

Capital structure alludes to how an organization finances its operations whether through shareholders equity, debt or a blending of both. This study was aimed to find out the determinants of capital structure in Manufacturing and Service Sectors of Pakistan and examine which capital structure theory (Trade off theory or Pecking order theory) is relevant in Pakistani context. For study secondary data was collected from financial statements of 30 Companies and then data was analyzed through Correlation and Multi Regression analysis. Results showed that leverage has negative significant relationship with tangibility in both sectors which conformed Pecking order theory is followed …

Revisiting Compensating Wage Differentials: The Evidence From Employer-Provided Health Insurance, Dan Qu

Business Review

This paper uses 1996 and 2001 Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine the evidence for compensating wage differentials associated with employer-provided health insurance (EHI) in the United States. The results provide no evidence of a tradeoff between wages and EHI coverage. On the other hand, the results do suggest that employees who work in states with income taxes are more likely to receive EHI than those in states without income taxes. Fixed effects, first differencing and instrumental variable estimation are used to address the potential ability bias and endogeneity problems in wage models with EHI as an independent …

Asset Price Bubbles With Specific Focus On Stock Prices In Pakistan, Nawaz Ahmad, Rizwan Raheem Ahmed, Yaseen Ahmed Meenai

Business Review

This research paper is an attempt to investigate Asset Price Bubbles (APB) with reference to Pakistan stock market. The analysis of time series graph shows a linear trend between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Money Supply Index (M2I) whereas a nonlinear trend with stock prices. Moreover, the graph also shows an unequal spread with the stock prices, which indicate Heteroskedasticity. Then, descriptive statistics test shows high Standard Deviations for stock prices compared with CPI and M2I, which indicate a higher volatility in stock prices. Finally, the hypothesis test for equality of variance concluded the presence of Asset Price Bubbles by …