Business Commons^™

Enhanced Prediction Of Stock Markets Using A Novel Deep Learning Model Plstm-Tal In Urbanized Smart Cities, Saima Latif, Nadeem Javaid, Faheem Aslam, Abdulaziz Aldegheishem, Nabil Alrajeh, Safdar Hussain Bouk

School of Cybersecurity Faculty Publications

Accurate predictions of stock markets are important for investors and other stakeholders of the equity markets to formulate profitable investment strategies. The improved accuracy of a prediction model even with a slight margin can translate into considerable monetary returns. However, the stock markets' prediction is regarded as an intricate research problem for the noise, complexity and volatility of the stocks' data. In recent years, the deep learning models have been successful in providing robust forecasts for sequential data. We propose a novel deep learning-based hybrid classification model by combining peephole LSTM with temporal attention layer (TAL) to accurately predict the …

Endogenous Market Choice, Listing Regulations, And Ipo Spread: Evidence From The London Stock Exchange, Hafiz Hoque, John Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines the endogenous market choice and its impact on underwriter spread if Alternative Investment Market (AIM) IPOs that meet Main Market (MM) listing requirements had issued equity in the MM during the 1995–2021 period. We find that the spread is 1.33% higher in the AIM than the MM for IPO listings that meet the MM listing requirements. This finding suggests that AIM companies, meeting the MM listing requirements, could have saved more than £100 million by going public through the MM than the AIM market. We also find that this spread differential is attributed to the issuing firms' …

Endogenous Market Choice, Listing Regulations, And Ipo Spread: Evidence From The London Stock Exchange, Hafiz Hoque, John Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines the endogenous market choice and its impact on underwriter spread if Alternative Investment Market (AIM) IPOs that meet Main Market (MM) listing requirements had issued equity in the MM during the 1995–2021 period. We find that the spread is 1.33% higher in the AIM than the MM for IPO listings that meet the MM listing requirements. This finding suggests that AIM companies, meeting the MM listing requirements, could have saved more than £100 million by going public through the MM than the AIM market. We also find that this spread differential is attributed to the issuing firms' …

Firm Resources, Strategies, And Survival And Growth During Covid-19: Evidence From Two-Wave Global Surveys, Sheng Fang, Chorching Goh, Shaomin Li, L. Colin Xu

Management Faculty Publications

This study examines how firms have made strategic choices and performed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on the organizational resources and strategic change literature, it uses World Bank Enterprise Surveys and the COVID-19 Follow-up Enterprise Surveys to examine how different endowments in organizational resources affected firm performance as measured by their survival status and sales growth, and how these resources interact with and affect strategic responses in the supply of inputs, response to changing demand, liquidity management, and innovation. The results indicate that larger firms, firms with foreign or state ownership, and subsidiary companies performed better during the pandemic by …

Are Ceos To Blame For Corporate Failure? Evidence From Chapter 11 Filings, Rajib Chowdhury, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines whether chief executive officers (CEOs) are to blame for corporate failures. Using alternative CEO managerial ability measures, we document that high-ability (low-ability) CEOs are less (more) likely to be associated with bankruptcy. We also find that reorganized firms run by high-ability incumbent CEOs experience improved financial performance after filing for Chapter 11. Firms that hire high-ability CEOs with bankruptcy experience also realize improved financial performance. Our evidence indicates that the likelihood of corporate bankruptcy is unrelated to the presence of high-ability managers and that bankruptcy does not adversely affect the post-bankruptcy careers of high-ability CEOs.

The Way Digitalization Is Impacting International Financial Markets: Stock Price Synchronicity, Chen Chen, M. Mahdi Moeini Gharagozloo, Layla Darougar, Lei Shi

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates whether and how the development level of a country's digital economy affects stock price synchronicity. The results indicate that countries with high levels of digital economy development exhibit low stock price synchronicity. Additionally, by decomposing stock price synchronicity into systematic and firm‐specific stock return variations, we find that systematic (firm‐specific) variations of stock returns decrease (increase) with the level of a country's digitalization. These findings shed light on the future trend of stock price synchronicity in financial markets around the world and support the information‐based interpretation of stock price synchronicity.

Will Vcs Invest At A Distance During And After A Crisis? Evidence From The 2008 Financial Crisis, Samuel Wilson, Christopher Willis, Jing Zhang

College of Business (Strome) Posters

We will explore how large-scale exogenous crises impact venture capital firms’ investment scope decisions during and after a crisis. We will analyze a population of 11,564 funding rounds announced between 2005Q1 until 2012Q4 in the US. Analysis shows that the 2008 Financial Crisis caused a short-term change in the geographical areas where VCs invest, and after the crisis firms tend to look further afield to locate viable investment targets. This study will contribute to entrepreneurial finance research by offering theoretical and empirical insights on how major crises affect venture capital investment and entrepreneurial activities.

Sentiment-Scaled Capm And Market Mispricing, John A. Doukas, Xiao Han

Finance Faculty Publications

This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β-return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios …

Stock Trend Prediction Using Candlestick Charting And Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques With A Novelty Feature Engineering Scheme, Yaohu Lin, Shancun Liu, Haijun Yang, Harris Wu

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

Stock market forecasting is a knotty challenging task due to the highly noisy, nonparametric, complex and chaotic nature of the stock price time series. With a simple eight-trigram feature engineering scheme of the inter-day candlestick patterns, we construct a novel ensemble machine learning framework for daily stock pattern prediction, combining traditional candlestick charting with the latest artificial intelligence methods. Several machine learning techniques, including deep learning methods, are applied to stock data to predict the direction of the closing price. This framework can give a suitable machine learning prediction method for each pattern based on the trained results. The investment …

Cyber-Assets At Risk (Car): The Cost Of Personally Identifiable Information Data Breaches, Omer Ilker Poyraz, Sarah Bouazzaoui, Omer Keskin, Michael Mcshane, Ariel Pinto

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Severe financial consequences of data breaches enforce organizations to reconsider their cybersecurity investment. Although attack frequency and trends seem similar per industry, the impact of a data breach may exponentially increase depending on the type of information and the amount of the stolen data. Also, governments develop and improve laws and regulations to protect the privacy of individuals. Therefore, a failure of data security may yield severe penalties and class-action lawsuits, which can significantly increase the expenses than before. The monetary impact of a data breach is a new field of study that requires more sophisticated research and analysis. There …

How Ceo Wealth Affects The Riskiness Of A Firm, Sonik Mandal, Charlie Swartz, Sanjib Guha, Carl B. Mcgowan Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the ownership level of managers and the risk averse behavior of the firm. We measure the ownership level of the managers by the ratio of their ownership of the company relative to their total wealth for a sample of 69 individuals from the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest individuals in the world for the period from 2001-11 using an unbalanced panel data analysis. The dependent variable is the Altman Z-score of each firm and we further test these relationships using financial leverage. The independent variables are delta and …

When Fund Management Skill Is More Valuable?, Feng Dong, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

Does fund management skill allow managers to identify mispriced securities more accurately and thereby make better portfolio choices resulting in superior fund performance when noise trading- a natural setting to detect skill - is more prevalent? We find skilled-fund managers with superior past performance to generate persistent excess risk-adjusted returns and experience significant capital inflows, especially in high sentiment times, high stock dispersion and economic expansion states when price signals are noisier. This pattern persists after we control for lucky bias, using the "false discovery rate" approach, which permits to disentangle manager "skill" from "luck".

Does The Market Believe White Knights And Hostile Bidders Are Acting In Their Shareholders' Interest?, John M. Griffith, Mohammad Najand, Jiancheng Shen

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines why white knights suffer significant losses while their rival hostile bidders experience significant abnormal gains. We address two research questions: 1) Does the market believe that white knights and hostile bidders are acting in their shareholders' interest? 2) Does Tobin's q explain why white knights suffer significant losses and hostile bidders experience significant gains upon the announcement of their bids? The results show that hostile bidders are value-maximizing investors and white knights are not acting in their shareholders' interest. Instead, white knights suffered significant reductions in value and historically have not maximized the wealth of investors

Essays On The El Niño Anomaly And Stock Return Predictability, Zhijun Yang

Finance Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation is to examine the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on the international stock market, both at the aggregate level and the portfolio level.

In first essay, I study the predictive relation between the El Niño phenomenon and international stock market aggregate returns. I find that the El Niño anomaly can predict all 14 countries’ stock returns. Specifically, the El Niño unconditional effect can predict stock return negatively in Japan, Malaysia, and South Africa, while the El Niño conditional on winter season can predict positively stock returns in 13 countries’ stock markets except for Japan. This conditional effect …

International Venture Capital Firms Syndication And Performance: A Social Network Perspective, Amir Pezeshkan

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

Despite a growing body of research on venture capital firms, the process by which venture capital firms invest across borders remains unclear. This three-essay dissertation integrates the literature on venture capital firms, social network theory, and international alliances to examine following research questions: 1) How do network characteristics (i.e., structure and composition) of the international venture capital firms and their potential partners impact their syndication behavior? 2) What configurations of the ventures' and the international venture capital firms' attributes is associated with syndication in emerging markets? and 3) Does the host country influence the international venture capital firms' syndication behavior …

Two Essays On Managerial Horizon, Cash Holdings And Earnings Management, Sanjib Guha

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

U.S. corporations are now sitting on an enormous stockpile of cash. Academicians and practitioners alike have tried to understand the reasons why companies are holding on to so much cash. Numerous studies have explored the various motives for holding cash. Many researchers have tried to correlate excess cash holding with particular firm characteristics. This dissertation analyzes the correlations that exist between excess cash holding and some measurable managerial characteristics. This dissertation examines if managerial horizon has any impact on excess cash holding. It also examines if managerial horizon and excess cash has any impact on firm value. Four different measures …

Simulation Analysis Of The Blocking Effect Of Transaction Costs In China's Housing Market, Hong Zhang, Yue Wang, Yin Lin, Yang Zhang, Michael J. Seiler

Finance Faculty Publications

To examine the blocking effect of transaction costs on household mobility, we construct a housing consumption model including transaction costs and adopt an analog simulation methodology, analyzing how changes in household income and home prices influence household consumption, savings decisions and the transaction costs blocking effect. We find that changes in housing demand are the fundamental cause of the blocking effect of transaction costs. The more demand changes, the greater the blocking effect is. Besides, increased volatility in home prices worsens the household mobility problem with regards to the blocking effect of transaction costs, while a change in household income …

A Study Of Risk-Taking Behavior In Investment Banking, Elzotbek Rustambekov

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation examines corporate risk-taking behavior by investment banks in the United States. This study was sparked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, one of the largest bankruptcy filings in U.S. history. This dissertation examines the specific factors that drove investment banks such as Lehman Brothers to take excessive risks, and how the deregulation of the US financial services industry towards the end of the 1990s contributed to risk-taking behavior.

I use four theoretical perspectives to examine corporate risk-taking behavior among investment banks. These perspectives include: institutional theory, behavioral theory of the firm, knowledge based view (KBV) of the firm, …

Two Essays On Executive Pay And Firm Performance, Thuong Quang Nguyen

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

Two essays of this dissertation study the relationship between executive compensation and firm performance. These essays analyze both compensation level and compensation structure, and focus not only on CEO compensation but also on Top Management Team (TMT) compensation as well as Chief Financial Officer (CFO) compensation. Methodologically, these essays use different regression techniques to explore the nature of time series over cross sections of executive compensation data in order to find a reliable relationship between executive compensation and firm performance.

The first essay investigates the TMT compensation - firm performance relationship and finds that the compensation dispersion among TMT members …

Creditor Rights And R&D Expenditures, Bruce Seifert, Halit Gonenc

Finance Faculty Publications

Manuscript Type: Empirical

Research Question?Issue: This study examines the impact of creditor rights on R&D intensity (R&D/total assets). We argue that managers in countries with strong creditor rights have more incentives to reduce cash flow risk and therefore limit expenditures on R&D more than managers located in countries with weak creditor rights.

Research Findings/Insights: Using a sample of over 21,000 firms from 41 countries, our research is one of the first to document that strong creditor rights are indeed associated with reduced R&D intensity. This negative relationship is observed in market‐based countries, but not in bank‐based countries. Moreover, the results …

Risk Allocation Across The Enterprise: Evidence From The Insurance Industry, Michael K. Mcshane, Tao Zhang, Larry A. Cox

Finance Faculty Publications

Financial researchers initially regarded hedging activities as a means to reduce total firm risk, which often is defined in terms of cash flow volatility. More recently, researchers have focused on the strategic allocation of risk. Direct tests of risk allocation have been problematic, however, because hedging data are rarely available and, when available, are specific only to a single operation of the firm, such as bank lending. In this study, we exploit unique data from the insurance industry that allows us to observe hedging proxies for both investment and insurance underwriting risks and test the risk allocation hypothesis developed in …

Consistent Earnings Growth And The Credibility Of Management Forecasts, Adam S. Koch, Jong Chool Park

Accounting Faculty Publications

This paper examines the relation between a series of past earnings increases and the credibility of voluntary management earnings forecasts. We demonstrate that both analyst forecast revisions and stock price reactions around management earnings forecasts that contain good news are more pronounced when the firm has posted a string of recent earnings increases. These results are consistent with our primary hypothesis that voluntary management earnings forecasts are more believable when they are made by firms with a history of consistent growth in earnings. This effect is more pronounced when firms are not widely followed by analysts. Additional analysis suggests that …

What Influences The Changes In Reit Ceo Compensation? Evidence From Panel Data, John M. Griffith, Mohammad Najand, H. Shelton Weeks

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines what influences the changes in REIT CEO compensation using the following performance measures: average three-year total returns to shareholders, market value added, Tobin's q, and change in funds from operations. The impact of managerial power on the change in compensation is also examined. The empirical evidence indicates that firm performance and size do not influence the change in CEO salary, while risk, tenure, title, ownership, and age have significant impacts. Bonuses are not influenced by risk, size, or CEO power; however, they are influenced by performance. Option awards are affected by performance and CEO power.

Do Analysts Influence Corporate Financing And Investment?, John A. Doukas, Chansog (Francis) Kim, Christos Pantzalis

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine whether abnormal analyst coverage influences the external financing and investment decisions of the firm. Controlling for self-selection bias in analysts' excessive coverage, we find that firms with high (low) analyst coverage consistently engage in higher (lower) external financing than do their industry peers of similar size. Our evidence also demonstrates that firms with excessive analyst coverage overinvest and realize lower future returns than do firms with low analyst coverage. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that analysts favor the coverage of firms that have the potential to engage in profitable investment-banking business.

Ex Post Valuation Correction And Motives Of Merger And Acquisition Decisions, Hien T. Nguyen

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This study seeks to decipher the motives of mergers and acquisitions and identify the source of value creation or destruction. The existing literature on corporate mergers and acquisitions generally agrees on four primary motives of merger and acquisition decisions: (1) market timing, (2) response to industry shocks, (3) agency cost and hubris, and (4) synergy. In studying the motives behind acquisition decisions, prior studies have used incomparable methodologies and measures, which often lead to inconclusive debates. In this study, we address the possibility that there could be multiple motives behind a merger. Instead of using a multitude of methodologies to …

Two Essays On Corporate Spin-Offs, Yingchou Lin

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation investigates two possible sources that contribute to the gains of corporate spin-offs. In the first essay, I investigate the relation between the value created by corporate spin-offs and the misvaluations of the parent firms and their spun-off divisions. I argue that spin-offs could create value even though the efficiency of the firm remains unchanged. Corporate spin-offs could be driven by the desire to correct the undervaluation of the parent firm or the spun-off unit. Thus, the gains of spin-offs should be highly correlated with the degree of misvaluation. By examining a 263 corporate spinoffs sample in the period …

Essays On Currency Risk Management, Nehad Elsawaf

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

In recent years a growing number of corporations have committed considerable resources to risk management, indicating the potential for risk management to protect and increase firm value. One can argue that most prior attempts to directly link the value of the firm to its hedging strategies are rather scant. Moreover, several questions with regards to firms' risk management activities remain unanswered. This study consists of two essays dealing with a series of questions regarding corporate risk management in modern U.S. multinational corporations.

In the first essay we first, test the valuation effects of currency hedging policies of firms around extraordinary …

Financing Strategies Of The R & D Firm, Lawrence Fogelberg, John M, Griffith

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the financing strategies of the R&D firm. Our hypotheses are based on Cho's (1992) game theory model where the firm develops a product but needs additional financing to bring it to market. The model generates a particularly rich set of hypotheses: 1) to fund the completion of its project and bring its product to market, the firm initiates negotiations with an established firm; 2) the majority of the acquisitions will be partial cash acquisitions through private secondary offerings. Confirming the model's hypotheses, we find that the majority of the acquisitions are partial cash acquisitions by significantly larger …

Corporate Diversification And Stock Returns, Tatiana Isakovski

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

There are considerable empirical evidences in favor of and against the corporate diversification. A number of previous studies have found that industrial and geographic diversification have a negative effect on the value of the firm and the stock returns. In contrast, a growing stream of literature provides evidence in support of the diversification premium. There is no consensus on whether the documented discount can be attributed to corporate diversification per se or to the firms' characteristics other than diversification. In this study, we re-examine the impact of industrial and/or geographic diversification on the stock returns.

The investigation of the comprehensive …

Market Valuation Of Corporate Diversification In The Presence Of Internal Capital Markets In Emerging Countries, Supannee Buasook

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This study examines the valuation of corporate diversification in three emerging countries: Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. Over the period of study (1992–2001 for Thailand and 1994–2001 for Indonesia and the Philippines), it is found that there is evidence of diversification discount in all three countries. The largest amount of discount exists in the Philippines (60.1%), followed by Indonesia (25.5%) and Thailand (15.1%).

Then, the sample is divided into two sub-periods: before the crisis (1992–1996) and after the crisis (1997–2001). Before the crisis, the diversification discount existed only in the Philippines, with the average of 49%. There is not enough …