Business Commons^™

Analyst Pessimism And Forecast Timing, Orie E. Barron, Donal Byard, Lihong Liang

Accounting - All Scholarship

In this study, we show that on average relatively pessimistic analysts tend to reveal their earnings forecasts later than other analysts. Further, we find this forecast timing effect explains a substantial proportion of the well-known decrease in consensus analyst forecast optimism over the forecast period prior to earnings announcements, which helps explain why analysts’ longer term earnings forecasts are more optimistically biased than their shorter term forecasts. We extend McNichols and O’Brien’s (1997) and Hayes’ (1998) theory concerning analyst self-selection to argue that analysts with a relatively pessimistic view - compared to other analysts - are more reluctant to issue …