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The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

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From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii May 2024

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Summer 2024 issue of Parameters. We open this issue with a special “In Memoriam” by General Charles A. Flynn, Commander US Army Pacific, honoring the life and legacies of our director and consummate colleague, Carol V. Evans. We dedicate this issue to her. General Flynn’s memoriam is followed by an In Focus commentary on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. We then feature three forums covering the Russia-Ukraine War, the Middle East, and Professional Development. This issue also contains special essays on the role of professional writing, the US Army War College’s Civil-Military Relations Center, …


In Memorium: Dr. Carol V. Evans, General Charles A. Flynn May 2024

In Memorium: Dr. Carol V. Evans, General Charles A. Flynn

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


The Combat Path: Sustaining Mental Readiness In Ukrainian Soldiers, Oleh Hukovskyy, James C. West, Joshua C. Morganstein, Eugene F. Augusterfer, David M. Benedek, Oleg Boyko, Robert J. Ursano, Amy B. Adler May 2024

The Combat Path: Sustaining Mental Readiness In Ukrainian Soldiers, Oleh Hukovskyy, James C. West, Joshua C. Morganstein, Eugene F. Augusterfer, David M. Benedek, Oleg Boyko, Robert J. Ursano, Amy B. Adler

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

In Ukraine, soldiers’ psychological resilience is of paramount concern. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have developed a new intervention, Combat Path Debriefing, designed to address combat stress and promote unit readiness for soldiers returning to combat. This article outlines the components of Combat Path Debriefing and discusses how it is rooted in principles of combat and operational stress control and the unique characteristics of Ukrainian military life. This perspective offers US and allied leaders real-world experience that can inform future efforts to support soldiers’ mental health and combat performance.


Understanding Russian Disinformation And How The Joint Force Can Address It, Michael J. Kelley May 2024

Understanding Russian Disinformation And How The Joint Force Can Address It, Michael J. Kelley

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Russia will dominate information warfare if the United States does not treat disinformation as central to Russian strategy. This article examines the vital role disinformation played in post–Cold War Russian strategy, including its strategy in the current Russia-Ukraine War, and in a departure from previous scholarship, this article observes that US defense leaders are aware of Russian disinformation but have failed to assess its impact or sufficiently negate Russian influence. The article also reviews current US efforts and suggests proactive ways to counter Russia’s disinformation strategy.


The Dynamics Of Us Retrenchment In The Middle East, Paul K. Macdonald, Joseph M. Parent May 2024

The Dynamics Of Us Retrenchment In The Middle East, Paul K. Macdonald, Joseph M. Parent

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues that conditions favor American retrenchment from the Middle East because the United States can shift burdens to capable states in the region, there are few areas where US commitments are interdependent, and the local conquest calculus favors defense. Forward military deployments do not positively influence potential threats in the Middle East, and maintaining deployments there will detract from meeting challenges from China. Through comparisons to prior cases of great-power ordinal decline, this article puts America’s modest decline in historical perspective and finds that retrenchment policies will likely have positive consequences.


Iraq’S Ministry Of Interior: Nato, Capability Building, And Reform, Andrea Malouf May 2024

Iraq’S Ministry Of Interior: Nato, Capability Building, And Reform, Andrea Malouf

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The ongoing, 20-year effort to reform Iraq’s Ministry of Interior through capability building is an underreported but critical aspect of NATO’s mission. This article identifies 10 strategic errors or “lessons” from this mission related to ends, ways, means, and assumptions. NATO’s involvement was flawed from design to delivery, including its myopic focus on training, systemic disregard of politics, relegation of civilian expertise, and inadequate measurements of its effects. As a result, police legitimacy in Iraq eroded, potentially exacerbating instability. Capability building is becoming more attractive as a non-kinetic tool; the success of future NATO missions—in Iraq and elsewhere—will, therefore, rely …


Professional Discourse Is Shaping The Force, Brennan Deveraux May 2024

Professional Discourse Is Shaping The Force, Brennan Deveraux

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The Army is transforming. While today’s senior leaders have set the service on a modernization path, future problems belong to the next generation—and we must own them. Professional writing is a way to do so, a tool enabling leaders of any rank to influence change at the macro level by contributing meaningfully to Department of Defense (DoD) conversations. Those embarking on this challenging adventure are not alone; writing is a team sport. The journey is as important as the destination, and most who take up this charge find participation in professional dialogue highly rewarding.


Introduction To The Us Army War College Civil-Military Relations Center, Carrie A. Lee May 2024

Introduction To The Us Army War College Civil-Military Relations Center, Carrie A. Lee

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The United States is experiencing an era characterized by civil-military tension and conflict. From the increasing politicization of the military, to declining public trust in the military and recruiting crisis, to the erosion of norms meant to protect civilian control, to a perceived lack of accountability within the profession; healthy civil-military relations in America today are under assault. In response, the US Army War College established the Civil-Military Relations Center (CMRC) in summer 2022 to “sponsor and promote the development of a healthy, sustainable relationship between the American military, society, and political leaders through education, research, and outreach.


Exploring The Nexus Of Military And Society At A 50-Year Milestone, Patricia M. Shields May 2024

Exploring The Nexus Of Military And Society At A 50-Year Milestone, Patricia M. Shields

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

There is an ongoing dependence and tension between the military and the society it protects. This article examines the relatively new “military and society” field using the 50-year anniversary of the journal Armed Forces & Society as a focal point. This dynamic field is influenced by world events, cultural trends, and politics. Civil-military relations is at the heart of the discourse. An international and interdisciplinary journal, Armed Forces & Society reflects the changing nature of the field over the last 50 years. I have edited the journal since 2001 and bring this experience to the discussion.


Book Reviews, Usawc Press May 2024

Book Reviews, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press May 2024

Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


Raven Sentry: Employing Ai For Indications And Warnings In Afghanistan, Thomas W. Spahr May 2024

Raven Sentry: Employing Ai For Indications And Warnings In Afghanistan, Thomas W. Spahr

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article examines Raven Sentry, a project that employed artificial intelligence to provide advance warning of insurgent attacks in Afghanistan. During 2019 and 2020, the Resolute Support Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (J2) benefited from a command culture open to innovation, the urgency created by the US drawdown, and a uniquely talented group of personnel that, aided by commercial sector experts, built an AI system that helped predict attacks. The war’s end cut Raven Sentry short, but the experience provides important lessons on AI and the conditions necessary for successful innovation.


Operating Successfully Within The Bureaucracy Domain Of Warfare: Part One, Jeff Mcmanus May 2024

Operating Successfully Within The Bureaucracy Domain Of Warfare: Part One, Jeff Mcmanus

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Policymakers in the defense community should approach bureaucracy as a sixth domain of warfare because, in doing so, they can successfully handle its processes and procedures. Part one of this two-part article discusses the first three (of 10) fundamentals these professionals must develop to navigate the bureaucratic domain and address and balance the complexities of the policy-making process for the overall benefit of US national security.


Closing The Gap: Officer Advanced Education Stem+M (Management), Leon L. Robert Jr., Carl J. Wojtaszek May 2024

Closing The Gap: Officer Advanced Education Stem+M (Management), Leon L. Robert Jr., Carl J. Wojtaszek

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The Army has made insufficient progress in arming its officers with science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and management (STEM+M) knowledge. The contemporary battlefield is faster paced, technologically enabled, and data driven, requiring officers to possess more skills, knowledge, and experience. We examine the Army’s history with STEM education and show that, in terms of education, the current Army officer corps has fallen behind its requirements for technology-enabled forces and modern society. We conclude with recommendations on how the Army can close the STEM+M education gap through advances in higher education and adopting talent management practices.


What American Policymakers Misunderstand About The Belt And Road Initiative, Zenel Garcia, Phillip Guerreiro May 2024

What American Policymakers Misunderstand About The Belt And Road Initiative, Zenel Garcia, Phillip Guerreiro

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

American accounts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) contend that it is a coherent grand strategy that reflects Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions. These accounts ignore the BRI’s fragmented nature, whereby Chinese provinces have been pivotal actors in its development and implementation. Furthermore, these accounts disregard the agency of participant countries and their capacity to shape the BRI. This article illustrates this fragmentation and agency by studying the Yunnan province and its domestic and international neighbors. It contends that these dynamics indicate that the BRI lacks coherence and that Beijing’s capacity to extract geopolitical benefits will remain limited.


Parameters Summer 2024, Usawc Press May 2024

Parameters Summer 2024, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


Us-Taiwan Relations And The Future Of The Liberal Order, Christina Lai Mar 2024

Us-Taiwan Relations And The Future Of The Liberal Order, Christina Lai

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Strengthening ties with Taiwan is the best chance the United States has to preserve the liberal international order in Asia and improve its security relative to China. This study offers a normative perspective on how Taiwan can contribute to US-led international institutions and the Asian regional order and reduce conflict risk. It concludes with recommendations for the United States and its partners to integrate Taiwan into multilateral institutions in Asia.


Building A Purposeful Research Agenda, Richard D. Butler, Joshua M. Arostegui Mar 2024

Building A Purposeful Research Agenda, Richard D. Butler, Joshua M. Arostegui

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

In this second installment of the CLSC Director’s Corner, Joshua Arostegui, the center’s research director and chair of China studies, and the center's director, Richard Butler, discuss the center’s research agenda. Previously, Butler outlined the center’s mission and how the research agenda answers large campaign questions across the perspectives of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the United States, and US allies and partners.


The Politics Of Restraint In The Middle East, Andrew Payne Mar 2024

The Politics Of Restraint In The Middle East, Andrew Payne

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Domestic constraints make it difficult for the United States to pursue a coherent program of restraint in the Middle East. As events in Gaza revive debates about the appropriate size and scope of the military footprint in the region, this article shows the importance of grounding any revised posture on a firm domestic foundation. Going beyond accounts that blame the obstructionism of a foreign policy establishment, it explores barriers to strategic adjustment and supports its claims through a case study of the Obama administration’s record, drawn from relevant literature, data on the distribution of military capabilities, and interviews with senior …


International Law, Self-Defense, And The Israel-Hamas Conflict, Eric A. Heinze Mar 2024

International Law, Self-Defense, And The Israel-Hamas Conflict, Eric A. Heinze

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article examines the international law of self-defense as it applies to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict to determine whether the October 2023 attacks by Hamas against Israel can be interpreted under Article 51 of the UN Charter as an “armed attack” that gives Israel the right to use military force in self-defense against non-state actors. It situates the conflict within ongoing legal and political debates, shows how this conflict fits into a changing global reality where the most dangerous security threats do not exclusively emanate from other states and concludes that Israel’s resort to force in the current conflict appears …


Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press Mar 2024

Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


Ukraine: The Case For Urgency, Rebecca W. Jensen, Anthony L. Tingle Mar 2024

Ukraine: The Case For Urgency, Rebecca W. Jensen, Anthony L. Tingle

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

If the United States and its allies seek to deny Vladimir Putin an objective victory in the Russia-Ukraine War, they must commit to providing sufficient aid to the Ukrainian army soon because the window of opportunity to provide sufficient resources is narrow—and closing. This article argues that the West must articulate a reasonable strategy for Ukrainian victory now, as a failure in Ukraine will weaken relationships between the United States and Western European states and their global partners while emboldening state and non-state actors to threaten the rules-based international order.


China's Use Of Nontraditional Strategic Landpower In Asia, Sheena Chestnut Greitens Mar 2024

China's Use Of Nontraditional Strategic Landpower In Asia, Sheena Chestnut Greitens

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues that the People’s Republic of China uses its police and internal security forces as a nontraditional means of projecting strategic Landpower in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia. Instead of limiting analysis of China’s power projection to military forces, this article employs new data on Chinese police engagements abroad to fill a gap in our understanding of the operating environment in Asia. Policymakers will gain an understanding of how these activities enhance China’s presence, partnerships, and influence across the region to inform the development of recommendations for a more effective response.


Strategy As Problem-Solving, Andrew Carr Mar 2024

Strategy As Problem-Solving, Andrew Carr

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article proposes a new definition of strategy as problem-solving that challenges the focus on goals and assumptions of order within many post–Cold War approaches to strategy. It argues that the military needs strategy to diagnose the complex problems of the twenty-first century before they can be solved. Inspired by practitioners such as Andrew Marshall and George F. Kennan, this new definition clarifies what strategists do and offers a logic for distinguishing the use of the term strategy. Practitioners will also find problem-solving tools and pedagogies they can adopt today.


Toward A Strategic Art For Sanctions, David J. Katz Mar 2024

Toward A Strategic Art For Sanctions, David J. Katz

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

New strategic art is required to maneuver political economies to meet the demands of future engagements and campaigns. Current discussions of the projection of political-economic power are typically abstract, high-level, and policy-focused or present singular tactical actions as strategic actions, creating a gap for campaign practitioners. This article addresses the gap by drawing on Joint Planning, Joint Publication 5-0, and Joint Campaigns and Operations, Joint Publication 3-0, to further develop the concept and methodologies first introduced in the author’s earlier article “Multidimensionality: Rethinking Power Projection for the 21st Century.”


Rethinking The Relevance Of Self-Deterrence, Jeffrey H. Michaels Mar 2024

Rethinking The Relevance Of Self-Deterrence, Jeffrey H. Michaels

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars.


The Art Of Avoiding Strategic Miscalculation, Steven W. Knott Mar 2024

The Art Of Avoiding Strategic Miscalculation, Steven W. Knott

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This examination of British War Secretary George Cornewall Lewis and the gold standard memorandum he penned in 1862 (that proved instrumental in preventing British intervention in the American Civil War) offers insights for modern leaders on how to avoid institutional barriers to effective strategic thinking and political-strategic miscalculation through insightful analysis of potential liabilities and policy assumptions. It shows how outstanding strategic thinkers possess an informed and reflective filter to evaluate past, present, and anticipated events—developed through a good education, diverse practical experience, lifelong intellectual curiosity, empowerment, and access to senior leadership.


Book Reviews, Usawc Press Mar 2024

Book Reviews, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii Mar 2024

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Spring 2024 issue of Parameters. Readers will note a few differences in the formatting for this issue: we are now using endnotes instead of footnotes to facilitate switching from pdf to html via Adobe's Liquid App; also, readers will be able to click on each endnote number to view the full endnote and then switch back to the text to resume reading. Please drop us a note to let us know how you like the changes. More are coming!


Srad Director's Corner: Emerging Technologies And Terrorism: A Report From Nato's Coe Defence Against Terrorism, Eric Hartunian Mar 2024

Srad Director's Corner: Emerging Technologies And Terrorism: A Report From Nato's Coe Defence Against Terrorism, Eric Hartunian

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The Strategic Studies Institute and the NATO Centre of Excellence for the Defense Against Terrorism have solicited expert researchers’ knowledge on emerging threats and technologies to prepare a (forthcoming) report on emerging technologies in terrorism. The information presented here previews this report, including an overview of key factors inhibiting counterterrorism, examples of potential threat scenarios, and recommendations of ways in which the policy and defense communities can keep apace with the challenges that emerging technologies present.