Digital Commons Network^™

How Does This End?: The Ukraine War And The Future Of Russia, Jonathan M. Acuff, Hannah N. Clegg

Journal of Strategic Security

We analyze a range of future scenarios for Russia related to the Ukraine War. Although regime change is a publicly-stated objective for several leaders of NATO countries, we find very little prospect for it. The Russian economy has largely evaded the effects of the sanctions. Despite enormous casualties and incompetence in the management of the war, both Putin and the war remain popular with the Russian public. Contrary to most analysis to date, the Wagner Group mutiny of June 2023 is not an indication of Putin’s weakness, but his strength. The coercive mechanisms of the Russian state remain intact. Indeed, …

Progress And Challenges In Combating Corruption In Ukraine: Pathways Forward, Semen Kravtsov, Kostiantyn Orobets, Nataliia Shyshpanova, Oksana Vovchenko, Olena Berezovska-Chmil

Journal of Strategic Security

In the context of war, the issue of corruption in Ukraine and abuse of office attracts great attention from experts, scholars, and civil society. The article aims to highlight the dynamics of combating corruption in Ukraine. This includes its main challenges, achievements, and ways of overcoming them in the context of war. The paper employs analysis and synthesis methods to study the dynamics of combating corruption in Ukraine. The authors have reviewed reforms in various sectors to identify key achievements in each corruption risk area. The article highlights the key achievements in the dynamics of combating corruption in Ukraine during …

Making Us Security Cooperation In Fragile States Work: Organizational Capital In Aid Provision, Randell Yi, Edward J. O'Connell

Journal of Strategic Security

The article examine how materiel and non-materiel organizational capital, as conveyed by military aid, differ in their effects on recipient nations with respect to governance. The authors analyze the Varieties of Democracy (vDem) dataset’s Regime Corruption Index alongside Security Sector Assistance expenditures as reported by the US Aid to Security Sector Actors (USASSA) dataset. They find that non-materiel forms of investment toward building partner nation capacity create generally better governance outcomes than materiel ones that involve transfers of weapons systems or supplies. They further contend that investments toward social cohesion and norms transmission “build the capacity to have capacity built.” …

Us Military Foreign Disaster Relief: Challenges And Proposed Mitigations, James M. Ward

Journal of Strategic Security

Climate Change will increase the frequency and intensity of disasters necessitating United States Department of Defense (DoD) intervention. The US Congress and DoD have produced reports and demanded action for climate change-related security concerns, but have largely left foreign disaster relief capacity unaddressed. The DoD does not have dedicated force structure for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR), potentially compromising mission readiness and operational effectiveness as well as jeopardizing U.S. foreign interests. Proposed mitigations for the status quo include bolstering international organizations, expanding the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) capacity to respond to disasters, and creating dedicated DoD …

Why Has Peace Not Come To Colombia? Between Total Peace And Armed Peace, César Niño

Journal of Strategic Security

This research asks why peace has not come to Colombia despite the end of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. Total Peace is an ambitious project of Gustavo Petro’s government to build the elusive peace in Colombia. However, the country's current security and violence situation shows a crisis in realizing the peace project. New criminal actors are proliferating, massacres are increasing, the confinement of marginal populations is on the rise, and ambushes against members of the security forces continue. The disconnection of the Total Peace policy with the security and defense policy has led to the strengthening of armed structures …

Video Games And Radical Movements: "Ein Prozent" And "Heimat Defender", Göksel Türker, Ali Gök

Journal of Strategic Security

The far-right, which poses a threat of escalating into terrorism or inciting violence, employs a variety of tactics to spread its ideologies among the general public. In this context, "Heimat Defender: Rebellion," a two-dimensional video game supported by the far-right Ein Prozent operating in Germany, draws attention. In the study, the game in question was examined on the far-right and especially Ein Prozent ideology and subjected to discourse analysis. The analysis revealed that the game plot was shaped according to the friend-enemy perception of Ein Prozent and the far-right. Accordingly, in the game in question, opposition to multiculturalism, immigration, globalism, …

The Handbook Of African Intelligence Cultures. Ryan Shaffer, Editor. London: Rowman & Littlefield, 2023., Edward M. Roche Ph.D., Jd

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Precision: A History Of American Warfare. By James Patton Rogers. Manchester, England: Manchester University Press, 2023., Amos C. Fox

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Cold Rivals: The New Era Of Us-China Strategic Competition Ed. Evan S. Medeiros, Georgetown University Press, 2023., Mark T. Peters Ii Ph.D.

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Nuclear War: A Scenario By Annie Jacobson, New York: Dutton, 2024., Edward M. Roche, Ph.D., Jd

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Quarrelsome Siblings – The Relationship Between Special Operations And Conventional Forces, Anna M. Gielas Phd

Journal of Strategic Security

The relationship between U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) and Conventional Forces (CF) has historically been challenging, leading to mission failures and the loss of lives. An unprecedented integration of the two forces was seen following 9/11 during Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom. This article investigates whether this intimate collaboration in Afghanistan and Iraq improved relations between SOF and CF. Drawing from a sample of 48 master’s theses authored by U.S. officers on the topic of SOF–CF integration from 1994 to 2018, this article documents a deterioration in the relationship between the two forces and identifies four underlying causes. It …

New Regionalism And Norm Creation: A Case Of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Anadi Anadi

Journal of Strategic Security

This article delves into the evolution of international norms, focusing on the dynamics within Central Asia as a microcosm of broader global shifts. It begins by elucidating the concept of a "region" in international relations, emphasizing its multifaceted nature, both geographically and culturally, as well as its evolving character in the face of global transformations. The study then delineates the emergence of regionalism, encompassing the historical context of old and new regionalism, with a nuanced understanding of their continuities and distinctions. A pivotal point of analysis is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), whose genesis and transformation underscore the influence of …

Deter, Disrupt, Or Deceive: Assessing Cyber Conflict As An Intelligence Contest, Robert Chesney And Max Smeets, Eds. Georgetown University Press, 2023, Chris Bronk, Phd

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

A Country Of Defiance: Mapping The Casamance In Senegal. By Mark W. Deets. Athens: Ohio University Press, 2023, Ezenwa E. Olumba

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

“Divergent Perspectives: A Comparative Review Of ‘The Nuclear Club’ And ‘Winning And Losing The Nuclear Peace’”, Abhishek Verma

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Hybrid Warfare: How To Escape The Conceptual Gray-Zone, Borislav Bankov

Journal of Strategic Security

Hybrid warfare (HW) is one of the most debated concepts in contemporary military science. While most scholars agree that HW is conducted in the gray-zone between war and peace, they define the phenomenon differently. This disagreement has resulted in a conceptual gray-zone. The lack of theoretical clarity is exacerbated by the fact that authors have coined additional security and defense concepts that are based on the idea of hybridity, such as hybrid peace and hybrid influence. This article examines the different views on HW and aims to offer a more precise framework for its analysis. To fulfill its objective, it …

Engagement With Radical Propaganda Drives Cognitive Radicalization: An Analysis Of A Right-Wing Online Ecosystem, Julius B. Calvert

Journal of Strategic Security

Cognitive radicalization remains an issue for communities battling terrorism. Recent empirical investigations into the psycho-social processes involved with radicalization have revealed social exclusion, cognitive inflexibility, and perceived threats to an ingroup as significant predictors for one’s propensity to engage with radical content and commit to offline behaviors. This study investigates the utility of user engagement and the proxy effect on cognitive radicalization by examining users’ engagement with a radical-right online ecosystem. The study supported the assumption that content featuring outgroup prejudice would affect the cognitive radicalization process. Several results demonstrate the importance of user engagement in the process of radicalization. …

The Ability Of Russia’S Federal Security Service To Influence The Executive Through Its Apparatus Of Seconded Employees, Vadym Chernysh

Journal of Strategic Security

The French statesman Count Mirabeau once said about then-state Prussia that it “is not a state that has an army, it is an army that has conquered the nation.”¹ With some irony, we can apply this statement to the situation in modern Russia by modifying it in this way: Russia is not a state that has a security service; it is a security service that has been ruling the nation. Russian Federation as the successor of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), takes much from the latter in terms of the instruments and the means used by its …

Responding To Fait Accompli: Lessons From Crimea, Lan Di Ngo

Journal of Strategic Security

This article focuses on the nuanced decision-making process of Ukrainian leaders in the wake of Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. Utilizing primary sources, including transcripts of Ukraine's cabinet meeting, it seeks to explain why Kiev refrained from employing coercive means to immediately retake Crimea following the fait accompli. The analysis reveals that decisions in such scenarios are typically influenced by a complex interplay of perceived territorial value and the strategic advantages of restraint. It also argues that fait accompli strategies can be strikingly effective when carried out with agility and minimal force, as demonstrated by Russia in Crimea. The …

Bukele’S Formula For Terrorism, Yovani E. Chavez Rodriguez

Journal of Strategic Security

The Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and the Mara Barrio 18 (18thStreet Gang) are two of the most notorious Maras. Their army-sized membership and extraordinary levels of brutality once led them to commit more murders than the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Boko Haram, and Al Qaeda. Currently, their activities have expanded to the United States, Latin America, Europe, and Africa. While they are undoubtedly terrorist organizations, Bukele’s formula has proven effective in combating them. Nonetheless, Bukele’s government needs to implement measures to effectively counteract terrorism without affecting the rule of law, transparency, and the respect of human rights.

The Palestinian Divide: Origins And Implications Of Palestinian Rejectionism, Martin S. Widzer

Journal of Strategic Security

In what is likely to amount to nothing more than a pyrrhic victory, Hamas’ October 2023 infiltration into Israel and subsequent assault will be greeted as a heroic act of resistance in some sectors of Palestinian society. It will invoke dread and anger in others. Employing a genealogical approach, this paper explores the effects of sectarian infighting over ideology, tactics, and aims as a means to garner greater in-group support. In doing so, the paper demonstrates that it is not so much Israel that is the object of the Palestinian struggle, but rather the struggle between the Palestinian factions themselves.

Military History For The Modern Strategist: America’S Major Wars Since 1861. By Michael O’Hanlon. Washington, Dc: Brookings Institution Press, 2023, Amos C. Fox

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Implementing Nims: Lessons Learned From The Boston Marathon Bombing, James M. Duggan, John Petrozzelli, Jay Slattery

Journal of Strategic Security

Many opportunities to learn from the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing have not been capitalized on. The terrorist attack was launched in the heart of Boston, a densely populated urban area with a population of approximately 670,000. Those numbers are amplified by the hundreds of thousands of spectators that line the streets along the Marathon route, with most at the finish line on Boylston Street. Two pressure cooker bombs were detonated in the finish line area, killing three and injuring 264. Among the injured were 16 who suffered traumatic amputations. Numerous reviews of the response and investigation identified positive aspects to …

Wide Area Motion Imagery And The Colonial Antecedents Of Surveillance, Dinesh Napal

Journal of Strategic Security

Wide area motion imagery (WAMI) technologies are procured by federal and state security institutions across the United States, due to their capacity to surveil at an extraordinary scale. Innovation in WAMI development seeks to make them more compact or convenient to use and employ in a variety of situations. The increased use of WAMI, particularly through uncrewed aerial combat vehicle (UCAV) systems and operations, is able to render visible people, communities, and behaviors at an unprecedented level. This has implications for individuals’ and communities’ perception of surveillance and the ontology of security. The experience of being secured or kept safe …

Why Cities Fail: The Urban Security Crisis In Ecuador, Jorge Mantilla, Carolina Andrade, Maria Fe Vallejo

Journal of Strategic Security

Compared to other countries in Latin America, Ecuador was traditionally considered a peaceful territory. However, 2022 was the most violent year in the history of Ecuador with a homicide rate of 25.6. In particular, the littoral city of Guayaquil (46.6) poses extraordinary challenges to Ecuadorian security agencies while criminal governance and firepower of criminal armed groups increased steadily in the past four years. This paper explores the relationship between ports, violence, and governance in the context of criminal wars. Through a process-tracing method, it studies the path through which Guayaquil ended up in a security crisis between 2018 and 2022. …

Urban Disaster Wrought By Man: The Battle For Manila, 1945, Russell W. Glenn

Journal of Strategic Security

Urban warfare tends to be intimate. If soldiers do not see the faces of those they kill—and they frequently will—those men and women will hear the screams or muffled groans of the wounded. US forces waging the battle to recapture Manila in 1945 experienced these horrors. Yet it was the noncombatants who suffered far more; 100,000—approximately one of every ten Manileños at the time—died during the fighting. Thousands more suffered wounds, disease, or struggled with hunger and malnutrition. Recent fighting in Syria, Ukraine, Khartoum, and elsewhere tells us too little has changed three-quarters of a century later.

Though urban warfare …

The Battles Of Hue: Understanding Urban Conflicts Through Wargaming, David J.H. Burden

Journal of Strategic Security

Recent years have seen increased interest in the professional use of wargames, and wargames are a potential tool to enable a better understanding of past urban conflicts and to plan for future urban security. Whilst access to professional wargames are limited, hobby wargames have been identified as useful and closely related areas to study. Previous work has identified around 214 manual hobby wargames that deal with urban conflict, but only 5 battles are covered by 5 or more wargames, and so provide a reasonable sample for comparative reviews. The Battle of Hue battle had many of the hallmarks of a …

Understanding Urban Warfare. By John Spencer And Liam Collins. Hampshire, England: Howgate Publishing Limited, 2022., Amos C. Fox

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

The Political Trajectory Of Urban Violence: Organized Crime In Michoacán’S Apatzingán, Fausto Carbajal

Journal of Strategic Security

Contrary to the “narco-centric” explanation of homicidal violence in Mexico, this article proposes “the political trajectory of urban violence” (PTUV) as an additional analytical category to nuance the developmental process of today´s large-scale violence in Mexican urban enclaves. Building on previous research, this article argues that organized crime-related violence in Mexican cities today has unveiled –and exacerbated– intricate power tensions among private actors –both illegal and, perhaps more importantly, legal ones– which need to be explored by considering the historical evolution of these political processes within a given urban context. The PTUV, then, regards recent organized crime-related violence as part …

Virtual Urban Siege: Modern Urban Siege And Swarming In Culiacán 2019 & 2023, Daniel Weisz Argomedo, Nathan P. Jones, Ph.D., John P. Sullivan, Ph.D.

Journal of Strategic Security

Modern urban siege is a metaphor for evolved urban campaigns. The template for such attacks draws from the tactics seen in the 26/11 Mumbai attack in 2008, and continued with the 2013 Westgate Mall attack in Kenya, the January 2015 Charlie Hebdo and Hyper Cacher attacks in Paris and the November 2015 attacks against the Stade de France and Bataclan. These virtual sieges employ swarming tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) to provide a template for urban strife and insecurity. This article provides an overview of terrorist swarming tactics, expanding the aperture to review the use of similar TTPs by criminal …