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(Wp 2024-03) The Dynamic Temporal Sequence And Reflexive Adjustment Behavior: Foundations For A Behavioral Alternative To Optimization Theory, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper discusses the difference between mainstream and heterodox economics in terms of philosophy’s distinction between two types of temporal sequences governing events: the static, truth-tenseless before-after sequence and the dynamic, truth-tensed past-present-future sequence. Mainstream theory and optimization analysis employs the first. However, Aristotle showed long ago this implies fatalism. Heterodox explanations employ the second, which I argue implies people reflexively adjust their choices over time in a combined backward-looking and forward-looking way that rules out optimization. Central to this explanation of behavior is how uncertainty about the future is connected to uncertainty about the past. I show this can …

(Wp 2024-02) Stratification Economics: Historical Origins And Theoretical Foundations, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

Stratification economics (SE) investigates how economies are organized around group inequalities, especially by race and gender but also by ethnicity, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, etc. Its historical origins and theoretical foundations have both a structural strand that addresses how and a social behavioral strand. SE's structural strand goes back to Ricardo and Marx regarding the relationship between growth and distribution, and then draws on recent economic theory of noncompeting groups and dual economy models of labor market segmentation. SE's structural strand produces an inequality-based understanding of economics' standard goods taxonomy. The social behavioral strand builds on Du Bois's psychological …

(Wp 2024-01) Douglass North, New Institutional Economics, And Complexity Theory, John B. Davis, Mauro Boianovsky

Economics Working Papers

Douglass North was central to the emergence of New Institutional Economics. Less well known are his later writings where he became interested in complexity theory. He attended the second economics complexity conference at the Santa Fe Institute in 1996 on how the economy functions as a complex adaptive system, and in his 2005 Understanding the Process of Economic Change incorporated this thinking into his argument that market systems depend on how institutions evolve. North also emphasized in the 2005 book the role belief played in evolutionary processes, and drew on cognitive science, especially the famous ‘scaffolding’ idea of cognitive scientist …

(Wp 2023-06) Richard Arena On Sraffa And Wittgenstein, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper discusses Richard Arena’s insightful and original contributions to interpreting the important interaction between Piero Sraffa and Ludwig Wittgenstein. It discusses this in terms of dilemmas they each encountered in transitions in their thinking in the 1930s, emphasizes the influence of Sraffa’s unpublished “Surplus Product” text, compares Sraffa’s critique of “natural science point of view” and Wittgenstein’s critique of logical form, and compares Sraffa’s later understanding of the relationship between production and distribution and Wittgenstein’s later understanding of forms of life and language-games. The paper argues this thinking opened up a approach to economic philosophy in connection with the …

(Wp 2023-05) Measuring The Effects Of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools Under Adaptive Learning, Stephen J. Cole, Sungjun Huh

Economics Working Papers

We compare the economic effects of forward guidance and quantitative easing utilizing the four-equation New Keynesian model of Sims, Wu, and Zhang (2023) with agents forming expectations via an adaptive learning rule. The results indicate forward guidance can have a greater influence on macroeconomic variables compared to quantitative easing, suggesting that forward guidance may have contributed to the high inflation rate after the COVID-19 related recession. Adaptive learning agents estimate a higher effect of forward guidance on the economy leading to a greater impact on expectations, and thus, contemporaneous inflation. However, the performance gap between forward guidance and quantitative easing …

(Wp 2023-04) Living Up To Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, The Effectiveness Of Forward Guidance, And Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis, Stephen J. Cole, Enrique Martínez-García, Eric Sims

Economics Working Papers

This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility. Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model for the United States and other G7 countries plus Spain allowing for deviations from full information rational expectations. In our model, the key parameter that aggregates heterogeneous expectations captures the central bank's credibility and affects the over-all effectiveness of forward guidance. We find that the central banks of the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and other major advanced economies have similar levels of credibility (albeit far from full …

(Wp 2023-03) Economics Imperialism And Economic Imperialism: Two Sides Of The Same Coin, Angela Ambrosino, Mario Cedrini, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

We argue that in a core-periphery economic world economics imperialism as advanced by the postwar Chicago School and economic imperialism led by the economies of the north are two sides of the same coin. We first review the parallelism between postwar capitalism’s core-periphery expansion of the north into the south and the Chicago’s theory of economics imperialism. We then distinguish four forms of relationships between different disciplines, and using Rodrik’s augmented global capitalism trilemma argue Chicago adopts his Golden Straitjacket pathway, both for north-south capitalist expansion and core mainstream economics’ orientation toward other social science disciplines. The paper then uses …

(Wp 2023-02) What Are Reflexive Economic Agents? Position-Adjustment, Slam, And Self-Organization, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

If mainstream economics and its view of economic agents is designed for a world in which reflexivity and feedback processes in the economy are ‘tamed’ and predictable, how are we to understand economic agents in a world in which reflexivity is ‘untamed’ and economies regularly exhibit unexpected fluctuations and significant nonlinearities? In a nonlinear world, economies evolve and undergo critical phase transitions from one form of organization to another. It seems, then, that we should also expect economic agents to evolve and undergo critical phase transitions from being one type of agent to another just as we observe that economies …

(Wp 2023-01) Objectivity In Economics And The Problem Of The Individual, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper addresses objectivity in economics. It criticizes a closed science, ‘view from nowhere’ conception of economics and defends an open science, ‘view from somewhere’ conception of objective science. It ascribes the first conception to mainstream economics, associates it with its principle practices – reductionist modeling, formalization, limited interdisciplinarity, and value neutrality – and argues their foundation is the Homo economicus individual conception. Two problematic consequences of adopting this stance are: (i) value blindness regarding the range and complexity of human values; (ii) fatalism regarding human behavior associated with employing a tenseless representation of time. The paper contrasts the principle …

(Wp 2022-07) Teaching Economics And Ethics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

As an interdisciplinary field, economics and ethics has been taught in many different ways, including in my experience teaching the course over many years. This paper describes the challenges teaching this subject involves and the strategy I ultimately adopted for doing so after trying different approaches. This strategy was meant to address the needs of a heterogenous collection of students, many of whom had limited knowledge of economics and were likely not take many additional courses in it. The course was structured around four modules opposed to one another in two pairs:

(1) Ways economics influences ethics: The market vision …

(Wp 2022-06) Sheila Dow's Open Systems Methodology, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper reviews Sheila Dow’s contributions to open systems thinking as a form of methodological argument and as an important foundation for pluralism in economics. It reviews the origins of her thinking in connection with her distinction between Cartesian/Euclidian and Babylonian thinking in the history of economics, discusses the further development of her views regarding open and closed systems in her 2002 Economic Methodology book and in connection with her ‘structured pluralism’ concept, discusses the 2005 paper co-authored with Victoria Chick, “The Meaning of Open Systems” examines Dow’s and Chick’s view and critique of critical realism in regard to the …

(Wp 2022-04) A General Theory Of Social Economic Stratification: Stigmatization, Exclusion, And Capability Shortfalls, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper develops a general theory of socio-economic stratification based on the interconnection between a specific micro-level mechanism and a broad macro-level process. At the micro-level, it examines selective social identity stigmatization; at the macro-level it explains social exclusion using the goods taxonomy club goods concept. The paper argues individuals in disadvantaged social groups, particularly by race and gender, suffer two kinds of capability shortfalls: capability devaluations at the micro level and capability deficits and the macro-level. These capability shortfalls mutually reinforce and sustain an overall hierarchical ordering of social groups. Their interconnection is explained using a complexity theory analysis …

(Wp 2022-05) Change In And Changing Economics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

Change in economics has likely always been a subject of discussion in economics and political economy. That discussion may have languished in the first post-World War II decades when neoclassicism was ascendent and dominated economics, but the emergence of game theory, more recently behavioral economics, and a variety of other new fields and approaches in economics since the 1980s has re-invigorated interest in the subject so that now there are many views on it. Yet systematic investigation of what change in economics involves has advanced little. Change is clearly always on-going in any discipline, but when it is said there …

(Wp 2022-03) Managing Contagion: Covid, Public Health, And Reflexive Behavior, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper characterizes a pandemic as one kind of contagion, and defines a contagion as a two-level, two-direction, reflexive feedback loop system. In such a system, experts’ opinions can act as self-fulfilling prophecies that significantly influence social behavior. Also, when multiple experts produce multiple, expert opinions can fragment a society’s response to a pandemic worsening rather than ameliorating it. This paper models this with two competing expert opinions, associates them with club goods and common pool goods types of circumstances, and argues that to combat fragmentation of opinion a focus on public health public good provision needs to be framed …

(Wp 2022-02) Keynes's Treatise On Probability 100 Years Later: Small Vs. Large Worlds And Closed Vs. Open Systems, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

The meaning and significance of Keynes’s Treatise on Probability has changed over the 100 years since its publication. Initially it stood on its own as an original contribution to probability theory. After The General Theory some saw the Treatise strengthening Keynes’s later arguments. Yet by the time New Classical Economics became dominant it became largely ignored. This paper attributes that later rejection to the mainstream economics’ reliance on Savage’s subjective expected utility restriction of probability thinking to what he called small worlds. It argues that his small worlds-large worlds distinction produces a small worlds-closed worlds conception of economics the mainstream …

(Wp 2022-01) Economics As A Normative Discipline: Value Disentanglement In An ‘Objective’ Economics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This chapter critically evaluates standard economics’ treatment of positive and normative, drawing on Putnam’s (2002) fact-value entanglement argument. It argues that economics is an inherently value-laden discipline but may still be an ‘objective’ one. The means of achieving this is to carry out a programme of value disentanglement that evaluates research approaches according to whether their different value structures are consistent. The method employed assumes that economics and social science disciplines are built around anchor values or normative ideals and additional sets of values concerning what most people in those disciplines see as most valuable and good about human society …

(Wp 2021-08) Deepening And Widening Social Identity Analysis In Economics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper is a contribution to the Erasmus Journal of Economics and Philosophy symposium on Dasgupta and Goyal’s “Narrow Identities” (2019) that models how individuals develop social identities. They do not distinguish categorical and relational social identities, model only social group social identities, minimize intersectionality (having multiple social group identities), and ignore inter-relational, social role social identities. In a club theory-like analysis, they portray the world as locked into polarized social group rivalries, where democracy matters little compared to social group loyalty. A problem with explaining social identity only in terms of social group identity is that the ‘identify with’ …

(Wp 2021-07) Forward Guidance Effectiveness In A New Keynesian Model With Housing Frictions, Stephen J. Cole, Sungjun Huh

Economics Working Papers

Housing markets are closely related to monetary policy. This paper studies the link between housing frictions and the effectiveness of forward guidance. A housing collateral constraint and forward guidance shocks are incorporated into a standard medium-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. Our main results produce a number of important implications. First, financial frictions emanating from the housing market dampen the effectiveness of forward guidance on the economy. Second, forward guidance has asymmetric effects on the welfare of lenders and borrowers when housing frictions increase. Housing frictions also attenuate the effect of forward guidance at the zero lower …

(Wp 2021-06) A Contextualist Approach To Health Economics, John B. Davis, Robert Mcmaster

Economics Working Papers

This paper departs from the standard abstract economics approach to health economics to develop a specifically contextualist approach to the subject emphasizing social and historical circumstances affecting health provision. Following Polanyi, it sees the economy as socially embedded and economic relationships as social relationships. The paper critically examines Grossman’s natural science utility maximization explanation of people’s demand for health and health care, and advances an alternative social science account using a two-way analysis between micro level social relationships and the macro level organization of health in society. Three significant trends affecting the future of health systems are discussed. The paper …

(Wp 2021-05) Heterogeneity In Individual Expectations, Sentiment, And Constant-Gain Learning, Stephen J. Cole, Fabio Milani

Economics Working Papers

This paper uses adaptive learning to understand the heterogeneity of individual-level expectations. We exploit individual Survey of Professional Forecasters data on output and inflation forecasts. We endow all forecasters with the same information set that they would have as economic agents in a benchmark New Keynesian model. Forecasters are, however, allowed to differ in the constant gain values that they use to update their beliefs and in their sentiments. The latter are defined as the degrees of excess optimism or pessimism about the economy that cannot be justified by the learning model. Our results highlight the heterogeneity in the gain …

(Wp 2021-02) Attribute Substitution, Counterfactual Thinking, And Heterodox Economics, John B. Davis, Theodore Koutsobinas

Economics Working Papers

This paper examines how attribute substitution (AS), central to the psychology of choice and behavioral economic reasoning, can be understood when combined with counterfactual thinking (CFT), often called ‘what if’ or ‘if only’ thinking, and how their combination creates important opportunities for the seeing heterodox economics as a single research program alternative to mainstream economics. The first section of the paper discusses AS, CFT, and what a AS-CFT behavioral framework involves, and then emphasizes how this framework departs from fundamental assumptions mainstream rational choice theory employs. The second section reviews the foundations of behavioral thinking regarding AS, describes what it …

(Wp 2021-03) Social Economics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This chapter explores the evolution and contribution of social economics to modern political economic analysis. It reviews the origins and early history of social economics, discusses more fully recent postwar social economics, and then identifies new themes in social economics’ current research agenda. Social economics is distinguished from classical political economy and contemporary neoclassical and mainstream economics – and, indeed, from most other political economic approaches – by its goal of explaining and premising the concept of ‘social’ in economics. Its main organising principle is that the economy is embedded in human society rather than vice versa. Second, the chapter …

(Wp 2021-04) John Tomer's Reconceptualization Of The Concept Of Human Capital, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This chapter examines John Tomer’s contributions to our understanding of the concept of human capital. Tomer criticized the standard mainstream view of the concept as narrowly focused on education and training and as seeing investments in human capital as having “an individual, cognitive, and machine-like nature.” A broader concept included attention to the people’s noncognitive development, and employed both social capital and personal capital concepts. This produces a more expansive view of human development, allows for a humanistic psychological perspective, and supports a multi-dimensional, Maslovian understanding of the hierarchy of human needs. Tomer framed his policy thinking regarding investments in …

(Wp 2021-01) Counterfactual Thinking And Attribute Substitution In Economic Behavior, John B. Davis, Theodore Koutsobinas

Economics Working Papers

This paper discusses how counterfactual thinking can be incorporated into behavioral economics by relating it to a type of attribution substitution involved in choices people make in conditions of Knightian uncertainty. It draws on Byrne’s ‘rational imagination’ account of counterfactual thinking, evidence from cognitive science regarding the forms it takes, and identifies types of attribution substitution specific to economic behavior. This approach, which elucidates the reflective stage of causal reasoning, is relevant for the explanation of hypothetical causal rules suitable for diverse tasks such as planning, expectations and mental simulations and for behavioural change interventions, which take into account people’s …

(Wp 2020-05) Change And Continuity In Economic Methodology And Philosophy Of Economics, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper provides my reflections on the state of economic methodology and philosophy of economics as of the beginning of 2020 following the end a fifteen year co-editorship of the Journal of Economic Methodology with Wade Hands. It looks at how economic methodology and philosophy of economics, as a meta-field type of research, has changed since it emerged as a distinct subfield in economics in the 1980s. Using an evolution of technology analysis, it distinguishes two different possible scenarios for the field’s future according to environmental factors operating upon it and how specialization in research may affect both it and …

(Wp 2020-03) The Effect Of Central Bank Credibility On Forward Guidance In An Estimated New Keynesian Model, Stephen J. Cole, Enrique Martínez-García

Economics Working Papers

This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility. We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting survey data on interest rate expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimate of Federal Reserve credibility in terms of for- ward guidance announcements is relatively high, which indicates a degree of forward guidance effectiveness, but still one that is below the fully credible case. Hence, anticipation effects are attenuated and, accordingly, output and inflation do not respond as favorably to …

(Wp 2020-04) Heterogeneity In Individual Expectations, Sentiment, And Constant-Gain Learning, Stephen J. Cole, Fabio Milani

Economics Working Papers

The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the formation of expectations at the micro-level, by focusing on individual expectations and, in particular, trying to account for their heterogeneity.

We exploit survey data on output and inflation expectations by individual professional forecasters. We link micro and macro by endowing forecasters with the same information set that they would have as economic agents in a benchmark New Keynesian model. Forecasters are, however, allowed to differ in …

(Wp 2020-02) Belief Reversals As Phase Transitions And Economic Fragility: A Complexity Theory Of Financial Cycles With Reflexive Agents, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper aims to contribute to the analysis of expectations and belief reversals in an evolutionary and complexity economics framework. It formulates its analysis in terms of the concept of reflexivity, drawing on the ideas regarding reflexivity in financial markets of George Soros, and lays out a model of how a financial cycle expresses a systematic pattern of interacting feedback effects. The paper develops this analysis as a complex interaction between sets of heterogeneous expectations derived from the behavior of reflexive economic agents. Positive and negative feedback phases in a cycle are distinguished and associated with boom and bust stages …

(Wp 2020-01) The Sea Battle Tomorrow: The Identity Of Reflexive Economic Agents, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper develops a conception of reflexive economic agents as an alternative to the standard utility conception, and explains individual identity in terms of how agents adjust to change in a self-organizing way, an idea developed from Herbert Simon. The paper distinguishes closed equilibrium and open process conceptions of the economy, and argues the former fails to explain time in a before-and-after sense in connection with Aristotle’s sea battle problem. A causal model is developed to represent the process conception, and a structure-agency understanding of the adjustment behavior of reflexive economic agents is illustrated using Merton’s self-fulfilling prophecy analysis. Simon’s …

(Wp 2019-02) A Road Not Taken? A Brief History Of Care In Economic Thought, John B. Davis, Robert Mcmaster

Economics Working Papers

Care is central to the human experience and part of the social provisioning process. Adam Smith recognized this, associating care with sympathy. Later contributions in the political economy tradition also provide scope for an analysis of care, but none as developed as Smith’s. With the emergence of the current mainstream, care is marginalized. Kenneth Boulding’s analysis provides an opportunity to interrogate care in the economy, but he fails to explicitly acknowledge care. It is left to feminist economics to highlight the centrality of care. An implication is that it challenges the conventional rubric of economic organization predicated on self-interest.