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The Effect Of Classmate Characteristics On Individual Outcomes: Evidence From The Add Health, Robert Bifulco, Jason Fletcher, Stephen L. Ross
The Effect Of Classmate Characteristics On Individual Outcomes: Evidence From The Add Health, Robert Bifulco, Jason Fletcher, Stephen L. Ross
Economics Working Papers
We use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) to examine the effects of classmate characteristics on economic and social outcomes of students. The unique structure of the Add Health allows us to estimate these effects using comparisons across cohorts within schools, and to examine a wider range of outcomes than other studies that have used this identification strategy. This strategy yields variation in cohort composition that is uncorrelated with student observables suggesting that our estimates are not biased by the selection of students into schools or grades based on classmate characteristics. We find that increases …
Measuring The Progressive Realization Of Human Rights Obligations: An Index Of Economic And Social Rights Fulfillment, Sakiko Fukuda-Parr, Terra Lawson-Remer, Susan Randolph
Measuring The Progressive Realization Of Human Rights Obligations: An Index Of Economic And Social Rights Fulfillment, Sakiko Fukuda-Parr, Terra Lawson-Remer, Susan Randolph
Economics Working Papers
In response to an increasing demand for rigorous monitoring of state accountability in meeting their human rights obligations, a growing literature on human rights measurement has emerged. Yet there are no widely used indicators or indices of human rights obligations fulfillment. This paper proposes a methodology for an index of economic and social rights fulfillment that: uses available survey-based objective, rather than subjective data; focuses on state obligations rather than solely on individual enjoyment of rights; and captures progressive realization of human rights subject to maximum available resources. Two calculation methods are proposed: the ratio approach and the achievement possibilities …
Minimizing The Price Of Tranquility: How To Discourage Scotland's Secession From The United Kingdom, Paul Hallwood
Minimizing The Price Of Tranquility: How To Discourage Scotland's Secession From The United Kingdom, Paul Hallwood
Economics Working Papers
What some view as overly-generous funding of the Scottish parliament results from Scotland.s credible threat to secede from the United Kingdom. Scotland is shown to benefit from a second mover advantage in a non-cooperative sequential game over the allocation of public funds. Various reform proposals are criticized for not recognizing that reform of Scottish government finances must be consistent with Scotland.s credible threat. Fiscal autonomy -- in which the Scottish parliament finances a much greater proportion of its spending from Scottish-sourced taxes, is demonstrated to be a viable reform within the existing political context and, in some circumstances, could remove …
Recognizing A Single-Issue Spatial Election, Vicki Knoblauch
Recognizing A Single-Issue Spatial Election, Vicki Knoblauch
Economics Working Papers
A single-issue spatial election is a voter preference profile derived from an arrangement of candidates and voters on a line, with each voter preferring the nearer of each pair of candidates. We provide a polynomial-time algorithm that determines whether a given preference profile is a single-issue spatial election and, if so, constructs such an election. This result also has preference representation and mechanism design applications.
Is The Great Moderation Ending? Uk And Us Evidence, Giorgio Canarella, Wenshwo Fang, Stephen M. Miller, Stephen K. Pollard
Is The Great Moderation Ending? Uk And Us Evidence, Giorgio Canarella, Wenshwo Fang, Stephen M. Miller, Stephen K. Pollard
Economics Working Papers
The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the Markov regime-switching models of Hamilton (1989) and Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to document the end of the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation in the US and the UK begin at different point in time. The explanations for the Great Moderation fall into generally three different categories -- good monetary policy, improved …
Geographic Deregulation And Commercial Bank Performance In Us State Banking Markets, Yongdong Zou, Stephen M. Miller, Bernard Malamud
Geographic Deregulation And Commercial Bank Performance In Us State Banking Markets, Yongdong Zou, Stephen M. Miller, Bernard Malamud
Economics Working Papers
This paper examines the effects of geographical deregulation on commercial bank performance across states. We reach some general conclusions. First, the process of deregulation on an intrastate and interstate basis generally improves bank profitability and performance. Second, the macroeconomic variables -- the unemployment rate and real personal income per capita -- and the average interest rate affect bank performance as much, or more, than the process of deregulation. Finally, while deregulation toward full interstate banking and branching may produce more efficient banks and a healthier banking system, we find mixed results on this issue.
Marriage Matching And Intercorrelation Of Preferences, James W. Boudreau, Vicki Knoblauch
Marriage Matching And Intercorrelation Of Preferences, James W. Boudreau, Vicki Knoblauch
Economics Working Papers
Men's and women's preferences are intercorrelated to the extent that men rank highly those women who rank them highly. Intercorrelation plays an important but overlooked role in determining outcomes of matching mechanisms. We study via simulation the effect of intercorrelated preferences on men's and women's aggregate satisfaction with the outcome of the Gale-Shapley matching mechanism. We conclude with an application of our results to the student admission matching problem.
Three-Agent Peer Evaluation, Vicki Knoblauch
Three-Agent Peer Evaluation, Vicki Knoblauch
Economics Working Papers
I show that every rule for dividing a dollar among three agents impartially (so that each agent's share depends only on her evaluation by her associates) underpays some agent by at least one-third of a dollar for some consistent profile of evaluations. I then produce an impartial division rule that never underpays or overpays any agent by more than one-third of a dollar, and for most consistent evaluation profiles does much better.
Preference Structure And Random Paths To Stability In Matching Markets, James W. Boudreau
Preference Structure And Random Paths To Stability In Matching Markets, James W. Boudreau
Economics Working Papers
This paper examines how preference correlation and intercorrelation combine to influence the length of a decentralized matching market's path to stability. In simulated experiments, marriage markets with various preference specifications begin at an arbitrary matching of couples and proceed toward stability via the random mechanism proposed by Roth and Vande Vate (1990). The results of these experiments reveal that fundamental preference characteristics are critical in predicting how long the market will take to reach a stable matching. In particular, intercorrelation and correlation are shown to have an exponential impact on the number of blocking pairs that must be randomly satisfied …
A Question Of Title: Property Rights And Asset Values, Thomas J. Miceli, Henry J. Munneke, C. F. Sirmans, Geoffrey K. Turnbull
A Question Of Title: Property Rights And Asset Values, Thomas J. Miceli, Henry J. Munneke, C. F. Sirmans, Geoffrey K. Turnbull
Economics Working Papers
This paper examines the impact of land title systems on property values. The predominant system in the U.S., the recording system, awards title to claimants over current possessors, whereas the Torrens registration system awards title to the current owner. In theory, the registration system maximizes property value, all else equal, but in practice, the systems differ depending on the risk of a claim and administrative costs. A natural experiment in Cook County, Illinois, where both systems have existed since 1897, allows a test of the theory. The results, based on commercial and industrial properties, reveal that parcels tend to self-select …
Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?, Nicholas Apergis, Stephen M. Miller
Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?, Nicholas Apergis, Stephen M. Miller
Economics Working Papers
This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries --- Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For each country, the analysis proceeds in two steps. First, modifying the procedure of Kilian (2008a), we employ a vector error-correction or vector autoregressive model to decompose oil-price changes into three components: oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks. The last component relates to specific idiosyncratic features of the oil market, such as changes in the precautionary demand concerning …
For Sale: Trade Policy In Majoritarian Systems, Per G. Fredriksson, Xenia Matschke, Jenny Minier
For Sale: Trade Policy In Majoritarian Systems, Per G. Fredriksson, Xenia Matschke, Jenny Minier
Economics Working Papers
We provide a theory of trade policy determination that incorporates the protectionist bias inherent in majoritarian systems, suggested by Grossman and Helpman (2005). The prediction that emerges is that in majoritarian systems, the majority party favors industries located disproportionately in majority districts. We test this prediction using U.S. tariff data from 1993, and House campaign contribution data from two electoral cycles. We find evidence of a protectionist bias due to majoritarian system politics that is comparable in magnitude to the payoff from being an organized industry.
Antidumping As Strategic Trade Policy Under Asymmetric Information, Xenia Matschke, Anja Schottner
Antidumping As Strategic Trade Policy Under Asymmetric Information, Xenia Matschke, Anja Schottner
Economics Working Papers
In the last two decades, trade liberalization under GATT/WTO has been partly offset by an increase in antidumping protection. Economists have argued convincingly that this is partly due to the inclusion of sales below cost in the definition of dumping during the GATT Tokyo Round. The introduction of the cost- based dumping definition gives regulating authorities a better opportunity to choose protection according to their liking. This paper investigates the domestic government's antidumping duty choice in an asymmetric information framework where the foreign firm's cost is observed by the domestic firm, but not by the government. To induce truthful revelation, …
Economics And Ideology: Causal Evidence Of The Impact Of Economic Conditions On Support For Redistribution And Other Ballot Proposals, Eric Brunner, Stephen L. Ross, Ebonya Washington
Economics And Ideology: Causal Evidence Of The Impact Of Economic Conditions On Support For Redistribution And Other Ballot Proposals, Eric Brunner, Stephen L. Ross, Ebonya Washington
Economics Working Papers
There is a large literature demonstrating that positive economic conditions increase support for incumbent candidates, but little understanding of how economic conditions affect preferences for parties and for particulars of their platforms. We ask how exogenous shifts to the value of residents. human capital affect voting behavior in California neighborhoods. As predicted by economic theory, we find that positive economic shocks decrease support for redistributive policies. More notably, we find that conservative voting on a wide variety of ballot propositions--from crime to gambling to campaign finance--is increasing in economic well being.
Tribalism As A Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence From Voting In The 2007 Kenyan Elections, Mwangi S. Kimenyi, Roxana Gutierrez Romero
Tribalism As A Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence From Voting In The 2007 Kenyan Elections, Mwangi S. Kimenyi, Roxana Gutierrez Romero
Economics Working Papers
Although many studies find that voting in Africa approximates an ethnic census in that voting is primarily along ethnic lines, hardly any of the studies have sought to explain ethnic voting following a rational choice framework. Using data of voter opinions from a survey conducted two weeks before the December 2007 Kenyan elections, we find that the expected benefits associated with a win by each of the presidential candidates varied significantly across voters from different ethnic groups. We hypothesize that decision to participate in the elections was influenced by the expected benefits as per the minimax-regret voting model. We test …
The Race To The Suburb: The Location Of The Poor In A Metropolitan Area, Charles A. M. De Bartolome, Stephen L. Ross
The Race To The Suburb: The Location Of The Poor In A Metropolitan Area, Charles A. M. De Bartolome, Stephen L. Ross
Economics Working Papers
We provide an explanation for the stylized fact that poor households are concentrated in the inner city of most U.S. metropolitan areas. We consider a metropolitan area with an inner city surrounded by a suburb and two income classes. Using numerical simulations, we show that two equilibria typically exist: one in which the inner city has a majority of poor households and the other in which it has a majority of rich households. We argue that the growth path selects the former equilibrium because rich households "jump" to the suburb before poor households "spill" into the suburb. In addition, the …
An Equilibrium Model Of Lawmaking, Thomas J. Miceli
An Equilibrium Model Of Lawmaking, Thomas J. Miceli
Economics Working Papers
This paper embeds a model of lawmaking in an equilibrium framework in which the demand for trials is rationed by court delay. The lawmaking process depends on a combination of selective litigation, judicial bias, and precedent. The steady state equilibrium of the model determines both the length of delay and the distribution of legal rules. Comparative statics show that an increase in the supply of trials reduces delay but may or may not increase the proportion of efficient rules. An increase in the fraction of judges biased in favor of the efficient rule, however, will likely improve efficiency on both …
Heterodox Economics And Dissemination Of Research Through The Internet: The Experience Of Repec And Nep, Marco Novarese, Christian Zimmermann
Heterodox Economics And Dissemination Of Research Through The Internet: The Experience Of Repec And Nep, Marco Novarese, Christian Zimmermann
Economics Working Papers
We study how the democratization of the diffusion of research through the Internet could have helped non traditional fields of research. The specific case we approach is Heterodox Economics as its pre-prints are disseminated through NEP, the email alert service of RePEc. Comparing heterodox and mainstream papers, we find that heterodox ones are quite systematically more downloaded, and particularly so when considering downloads per subscriber. We conclude that the Internet definitely helps heterodox research, also because other researcher get exposed to it. But there is still room for more participation by heterodox researchers.
Stratification And Growth In Agent-Based Matching Markets, James W. Boudreau
Stratification And Growth In Agent-Based Matching Markets, James W. Boudreau
Economics Working Papers
This paper examines the dynamic impact of matching on economic mobility and growth. To account for complex interactions over time, experimental economies of heterogeneous agents are simulated with the match process acting as a fitness selection mechanism. Even with perfect information and substantial variety in both offspring and entrants, two-sided matching inevitably causes the population to evolve into stratified groups. Corrective measures are possible to improve mobility, but by altering the path of market evolution, a policy may have unintended negative impacts on growth and inequality.
The Social Versus Private Incentive To Sue, Thomas J. Miceli
The Social Versus Private Incentive To Sue, Thomas J. Miceli
Economics Working Papers
The private value of lawsuits is based on plaintiffs' expected recovery at trial compared to their filing costs, whereas the social value consists of the incentives suits create for injurers to invest in accident avoidance. Generally, there is no relationship between these two values: there may be either too many or too few suits from a social perspective. Thus, there is scope for corrective measures, although there is no simple policy. Extending the model to consider a negligence rule rather than strict liability, and to allow for pretrial settlements, leads to some modified conclusions but does not alter the basic …
A Note On The Social Versus Private Value Of Suits When Care Is Bilateral, Thomas J. Miceli
A Note On The Social Versus Private Value Of Suits When Care Is Bilateral, Thomas J. Miceli
Economics Working Papers
This paper re-examines the social versus private value of lawsuits when both injurers and victims can take care. The basic conclusions of that literature remain valid in this context: the private and social values generally differ, and there is no necessary relationship between them, meaning that there may be either too many or too few suits. Introducing the possibility of victim care does, however, alter the calculation of the deterrent effect of lawsuits. In particular, because allowing suits tends to reduce the incentives for victims to invest in precaution, the social value of prohibiting suits increases in direct relation to …
Is The Cheating Risk Always Higher In Online Instruction Compared To Face-To-Face Instruction?, Oskar Harmon, James Lambrinos, Judy Buffolino
Is The Cheating Risk Always Higher In Online Instruction Compared To Face-To-Face Instruction?, Oskar Harmon, James Lambrinos, Judy Buffolino
Economics Working Papers
This article analyzes the exposure to cheating risk of online courses relative to face-to-face courses at a single institution. For our sample of 20 online courses we report that the cheating risk is higher than for equivalent face-to-face courses because of reliance on un-proctored multiple choice exams. We conclude that the combination of a proctored final exam, and strategic use cheating deterrents in the administration of un-proctored multiple choice exams, would significantly reduce the cheating risk differential without substantially altering the assessment design of online instruction.
Understanding Racial Segregation: What Is Known About The Effect Of Housing Discrimination, Stephen L. Ross
Understanding Racial Segregation: What Is Known About The Effect Of Housing Discrimination, Stephen L. Ross
Economics Working Papers
A central purpose of this chapter is to assess whether the available empirical evidence supports the view that current levels of housing discrimination are a significant contributor to residential segregation in U.S. cities and metropolitan areas. Through the course of this chapter, the reader will find that the empirical patterns of racial segregation in the U.S. are often inconsistent the available evidence on housing discrimination. Admittedly, strong evidence exists that both housing discrimination exists today and that housing discrimination throughout much of the Twentieth Century was central to creating the high levels of segregation that we observe in U.S. metropolitan …
Input Price Variation Across Locations And A Generalized Measure Of Cost Efficiency, Subhash C. Ray, Lei Chen, Kankana Mukherjee
Input Price Variation Across Locations And A Generalized Measure Of Cost Efficiency, Subhash C. Ray, Lei Chen, Kankana Mukherjee
Economics Working Papers
We propose a nonparametric model for global cost minimization as a framework for optimal allocation of a firm's output target across multiple locations, taking account of differences in input prices and technologies across locations. This should be useful for firms planning production sites within a country and for foreign direct investment decisions by multi-national firms. Two illustrative examples are included. The first example considers the production location decision of a manufacturing firm across a number of adjacent states of the US. In the other example, we consider the optimal allocation of US and Canadian automobile manufacturers across the two countries.
Are Indian Firms Too Small? A Nonparametric Analysis Of Cost Efficiency And Industry Structure Of Indian Manufacturing, Subhash C. Ray
Are Indian Firms Too Small? A Nonparametric Analysis Of Cost Efficiency And Industry Structure Of Indian Manufacturing, Subhash C. Ray
Economics Working Papers
In this paper we use the 2004-05 Annual Survey of Industries data to estimate the levels of cost efficiency of Indian manufacturing firms in the various states and also get state level measures of industrial organization (IO) efficiency. The empirical results show the presence of considerable cost inefficiency in a majority of the states. Further, we also find that, on average, Indian firms are too small. Consolidating them to attain the optimal scale would further enhance efficiency and lower average cost.
Voting In Kenya: Putting Ethnicity In Perspective, Michael Bratton, Mwangi S. Kimenyi
Voting In Kenya: Putting Ethnicity In Perspective, Michael Bratton, Mwangi S. Kimenyi
Economics Working Papers
Do Kenyans vote according to ethnic identities or policy interests? Based on results from a national probability sample survey conducted in the first week of December 2007, this article shows that, while ethnic origins drive voting patterns, elections in Kenya amount to more than a mere ethnic census. We start by reviewing how Kenyans see themselves, which is mainly in non-ethnic terms. We then report on how they see others, whom they fear will organize politically along ethnic lines. People therefore vote defensively in ethnic blocs, but not exclusively. In Decem- ber 2007, they also took particular policy issues into …
Predicting The Fed, Kenneth B. Petersen, Vladimir Pozdnyakov
Predicting The Fed, Kenneth B. Petersen, Vladimir Pozdnyakov
Economics Working Papers
Predicting the federal funds rate and beating the federal funds futures market: mission impossible? Not so. We employ a Markov transition process and show that this model outperforms the federal funds futures market in predicting the target federal funds rate. Thus, by using purely historical data we are able to better explain future monetary policy than a forward looking measure like the federal funds futures rate. The fact that the federal funds futures market can be beaten by a statistical model, suggests that the federal funds futures market lacks eciency. The mar- ket allocates too much weight to current Federal …
The Political Economy Of Constitutional Choice: A Study Of The 2005 Kenyan Constitutional Referendum, Mwangi S. Kimenyi, William F. Shughart
The Political Economy Of Constitutional Choice: A Study Of The 2005 Kenyan Constitutional Referendum, Mwangi S. Kimenyi, William F. Shughart
Economics Working Papers
Recent studies of the linkages between the wealth of nations and the institutions of governance suggest that concentrating political power in a monarchy or a ruling coalition impedes economic growth and, moreover, that while power-diffusing reforms can enhance the wellbeing of society in general, opposition by groups benefitting from the status quo is predictable. In November 2005, Kenyans rejected a proposed constitution that, despite promises made by their new chief executive, would not have lessened the powers of the presidency. Using a unique, constituency-level dataset on the referendum vote, we estimate a model of the demand for power diffusion and …
Increasing Derivatives Market Activity In Emerging Markets And Exchange Rate Exposure, Uluc Aysun, Melanie Guldi
Increasing Derivatives Market Activity In Emerging Markets And Exchange Rate Exposure, Uluc Aysun, Melanie Guldi
Economics Working Papers
Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market …
The Impact Of The Fomc's Monetary Policy Actions On The Growth Of Credit Risk: The Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox, Kwamie Dunbar
The Impact Of The Fomc's Monetary Policy Actions On The Growth Of Credit Risk: The Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox, Kwamie Dunbar
Economics Working Papers
Credit risk is influenced by interest rates and market liquidity. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of unexpected monetary policy shifts on the growth of corporate credit risk, with the aim of quantifying the size and direction of the response. The results surprisingly indicate that monetary policy and liquidity impulses move counter to each other in their effects on credit risk ("The monetary policy-liquidity paradox"). The analysis indicates that while contractionary monetary policy creates tight money which subsequently leads to a slowing in the growth of credit risk and a reduction of liquidity in credit markets, reduced liquidity …