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Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

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Fecal Pellet Production By North Atlantic Zooplankton, Michael Gibson May 2023

Fecal Pellet Production By North Atlantic Zooplankton, Michael Gibson

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Fecal pellet carbon (FPC) production by zooplankton is a significant component of the ocean’s biological carbon pump: the suite of biological processes that mediate export of carbon to the deep ocean, ultimately leading to the sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the ocean. In this study, mesozooplankton (zooplankton 0.2 mm to ~2 cm) were collected from the epipelagic zone in the temperate North Atlantic Ocean during day and night in May 2021. Zooplankton were live separated into five size fractions and incubated on board ship in natural surface seawater to measure fecal pellet production rate of the mixed mesozooplankton community. …


The Importance Of Winter Dinoflagellate Blooms In Chesapeake Bay—A Missing Link In Bay Productivity, Nicole C. Millette, Sophie Clayton, Margaret Mulholland, Leah Gibala-Smith, Michael Lane Mar 2023

The Importance Of Winter Dinoflagellate Blooms In Chesapeake Bay—A Missing Link In Bay Productivity, Nicole C. Millette, Sophie Clayton, Margaret Mulholland, Leah Gibala-Smith, Michael Lane

VIMS Articles

It is widely assumed that phytoplankton abundance and productivity decline during temperate winters because of low irradiance and temperatures. However, winter phytoplankton blooms commonly occur in temperate estuaries, but they are often undocumented because of reduced water quality monitoring in winter. The small body of in situ work that has been done on winter blooms suggests they can be of enormous consequence to ecosystems. However, because monitoring is often reduced or stopped altogether during winter, it is unclear how widespread these blooms are or how long they can last. We analyzed an over 30-year record of monthly phytoplankton monitoring samples …


Shellfish, Shorelines, Seagrass And Schism How Virginia Became A Leader In Coastal Marine Science, George Mapp Jan 2023

Shellfish, Shorelines, Seagrass And Schism How Virginia Became A Leader In Coastal Marine Science, George Mapp

Miscellaneous

Since the 1930s, when William and Mary professor Donald Davis proposed hiring a state-funded biologist to address fisheries issues, Virginia marine scientists have diagnosed shellfish diseases, rejuvenated the oyster and clam fisheries, preserved wetlands and shorelines, restored seaside seagrass, and accurately modeled Chesapeake Bay circulation. This informal history looks back at the lives of the many dedicated marine scientists, advisory personnel, and administrators who led the Commonwealth through difficult times: collapse of the oyster industry, James River toxic pesticide pollution, Chesapeake Bay water quality degradation, crab and striped bass population declines, and the current challenges brought about by climate change …


Dataset: A Numerical Simulation Of The Ocean, Sea Ice And Ice Shelves In The Amundsen Sea (Antarctica) Over The Period 2006-2022 And Its Associated Code And Input Files, Pierre St-Laurent Jan 2023

Dataset: A Numerical Simulation Of The Ocean, Sea Ice And Ice Shelves In The Amundsen Sea (Antarctica) Over The Period 2006-2022 And Its Associated Code And Input Files, Pierre St-Laurent

Data

A three-dimensional numerical model of the Amundsen Sea (Antarctica) was used to simulate the period Jan.2006-Mar.2022 under consistent atmospheric/oceanic forcings, bathymetry/ice shelf topography, and model equations/parameters. The model is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS, https://www.myroms.org/) with extensions for sea ice (Budgell 2005) and ice shelves (Dinniman et al. 2011). It simulates the ocean hydrography and circulation, sea ice thermodynamics and dynamics, and the basal melt of the ice shelves, with a uniform horizontal mesh of 1.5km and 20 topography-following vertical levels. Forcings include the ERA5 reanalysis (3-hourly), 10 tidal constituents from CATS 2008, and ocean/sea ice …


Dataset: Global Seamless Tidal Simulation Using A 3d Unstructured-Grid Model, Yinglong J. Zhang, Tomas Fernandez-Montblanc, William Pringle, Hao-Cheng Yu, Linlin Cui, Saeed Moghimi Jan 2023

Dataset: Global Seamless Tidal Simulation Using A 3d Unstructured-Grid Model, Yinglong J. Zhang, Tomas Fernandez-Montblanc, William Pringle, Hao-Cheng Yu, Linlin Cui, Saeed Moghimi

Data

Dataset:

We present a new 3D unstructured-grid global ocean model to study both tidal and non-tidal processes, with a focus on the total water elevation. Unlike existing global ocean models, the new model resolves estuaries and rivers down to ~8m without the need for grid nesting. The model is validated with both satellite and in-situ observations for elevation, temperature and salinity. Tidal elevation solutions have a mean complex RMSE of 4.2 cm for M2 and 5.4 cm for all 5 major constituents in the deep ocean (the RMSEs for the other 4 constituents (S2, N2, K1, O1) are respectively: 2.05cm, …


Frequent Storm Surges Affect The Groundwater Of Coastal Ecosystems, Giovanna Nordio, Ryan Frederiks, Mary Hingst, Joel Carr, Matthew L. Kirwan, Et Al Jan 2023

Frequent Storm Surges Affect The Groundwater Of Coastal Ecosystems, Giovanna Nordio, Ryan Frederiks, Mary Hingst, Joel Carr, Matthew L. Kirwan, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Recent studies have focused on the effect of large tropical cyclones (hurricanes) on the shore, neglecting the role of less intense but more frequent events. Here we analyze the effect of the offshore tropical storm Melissa on groundwater data collected along the North America Atlantic coast. Our meta-analysis indicates that both groundwater level and specific conductivity significantly increased during Melissa, respectively reaching maximum values of 1.09 m and 25.2 mS/cm above pre-storm levels. Time to recover to pre-storm levels was 10 times greater for groundwater specific conductivity, with a median value of 20 days, while groundwater level had a median …


Development Of 3d And 360 Gis-Based Models To Visualize Projected Sea Level Rise In Coastal Virginia, Candice M. Vinson Jan 2023

Development Of 3d And 360 Gis-Based Models To Visualize Projected Sea Level Rise In Coastal Virginia, Candice M. Vinson

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Science communication is a skill that can be strengthened with practice. Like any skill, it helps to know what you need to practice in order to get better at it. When presenting information to an audience, the skill of science communication comes into play as early as the first draft of a presentation. As you think about how you will tell your story to the audience, you likely consider including text on slides, images, graphs, maps, or even videos. However, it is crucial to remember that accessibility barriers are something we must often consciously work to rid our presentations of, …


Succession Of The Late Summer Phytoplankton Blooms In The York River Estuary, Va, Heather Kathleen Corson Jan 2023

Succession Of The Late Summer Phytoplankton Blooms In The York River Estuary, Va, Heather Kathleen Corson

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

The influence of bottom-up and top-down controls on the formation and persistence of phytoplankton blooms has been well studied. However, the relative importance of these bottom-up and top-down controls vary spatially and temporally. In the tidal tributaries and mainstem of Chesapeake Bay, the summer dinoflagellate population follows a succession of bloom-producing species. The dinoflagellate species Margalefidinium polykrikoides and Alexandrium monilatum are currently considered the end of this succession. These species form near-annual blooms in the lower half of Chesapeake Bay and are considered harmful algal bloom (HAB) species due to their negative ecological impacts. However, analysis of long-term monitoring data …


Identifying Factors Controlling Dinophysis Spp. Feeding, Growth, And Toxin Production Through Field And Lab Studies, Vanessa R. Strohm Jan 2023

Identifying Factors Controlling Dinophysis Spp. Feeding, Growth, And Toxin Production Through Field And Lab Studies, Vanessa R. Strohm

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) and their associated phycotoxins pose a threat to both human and shellfish health around the world. Dinophysis spp., a causative organism of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) in humans, and its two toxin classes: dinophysistoxins (DTXs) and pectenotoxins (PTXs), have been documented throughout the year in the Chesapeake Bay. While DTX concentrations currently remain below regulatory limits in regional seafood products, further research is needed to understand environmental drivers, both biotic and abiotic, that may be impacting Dinophysis spp. feeding on prey, growth, and toxin production. To characterize populations of Dinophysis in situ, an Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB) …


Chesapeake Bay Carbonate Cycle: Past, Present, And Future, Fei Da Jan 2023

Chesapeake Bay Carbonate Cycle: Past, Present, And Future, Fei Da

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Multiple natural and anthropogenic drivers are expanding the variability of the estuarine carbonate system (CO2 system). These changes in the CO2 system are threatening the health of ecologically and economically important bivalve species. This dissertation investigates the Chesapeake Bay CO2 system by using numerical models and historical water quality data, focusing on the past three decades, the contemporary period, and the late 2060s. In Chapter 2, sensitivity experiments are conducted with a 3-D Chesapeake Bay hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model and reveal that the magnitude of decadal trends in the CO2 system over the past 30 years is much greater than that observed …


Impacts And Uncertainties Of Climate Change On The Chesapeake Bay, Kyle E. Hinson Jan 2023

Impacts And Uncertainties Of Climate Change On The Chesapeake Bay, Kyle E. Hinson

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Climate change impacts in the Chesapeake Bay will limit the efficacy of nutrient reduction efforts and decrease dissolved oxygen, but uncertainties associated with the magnitude of these effects remain. An understanding of underlying mechanisms that have driven recent warming trends will narrow uncertainties for future pathways of temperature change. Additionally, future simulations of climate impacts in the estuary are dependent on multiple different sources of uncertainty, many of which have not yet been fully evaluated. This dissertation used a three- dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to investigate recent warming trends as well as underlying uncertainties likely to influence regional projections of …


Climate Impacts On Spatiotemporal Habitat Usage Of Mid-Atlantic Fishes, Adena Jade Schonfeld Jan 2023

Climate Impacts On Spatiotemporal Habitat Usage Of Mid-Atlantic Fishes, Adena Jade Schonfeld

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Climate change has altered marine environments, most notably by increasing water temperatures and reducing dissolved oxygen concentrations. These persistent changes have impacted the phenology and spatiotemporal habitat usage of mobile species, often through distributional shifts poleward or to deeper water. Climate-driven distributional shifts have been documented for numerous species inhabiting the Atlantic Ocean along the US East Coast, a region disproportionately affected by climate change. Adjacent estuaries are experiencing similar alterations to their physical environments and biotic community composition. Many estuarine species are seasonal residents and changes to environmental conditions within an estuary can result in altered usage and residence …


Emerging Red Sore Disease Of American Eel (Anguilla Rostrata) In Chesapeake Bay: Etiology, Epidemiology, And Impacts In Aquaculture And The Wild, Amanpreet Kaur Kohli Jan 2023

Emerging Red Sore Disease Of American Eel (Anguilla Rostrata) In Chesapeake Bay: Etiology, Epidemiology, And Impacts In Aquaculture And The Wild, Amanpreet Kaur Kohli

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Emerging infectious diseases in aquatic systems, both in aquaculture and in the wild, are a global concern. Many have proposed an uptick in marine diseases as a result of environmental changes including a warming climate, habitat modifications, trade and transfer of wildlife and aquaculture products, pollution, overharvesting of resources, and other anthropogenic impacts. These perturbations can disturb the delicate host-pathogen relationships and result in new diseases or exacerbate the existing diseases in a population. Diseases can lead to several direct and indirect effects in the ecosystem such as population declines and extinctions, and thereby a change in population dynamics, as …


Biotic And Abiotic Factors Associated With Temporal And Spatial Variability Of Constitutive Mixotroph Abundance And Proportion, Marcella Dobbertin Da Costa Jan 2023

Biotic And Abiotic Factors Associated With Temporal And Spatial Variability Of Constitutive Mixotroph Abundance And Proportion, Marcella Dobbertin Da Costa

Dissertations, Theses, and Masters Projects

Mixotrophic protists, which combine the use of photosynthesis and prey ingestion to obtain nutrients for growth, comprise a substantial portion of the plankton community. However, there is a major gap in our understanding of how mixotroph prevalence varies spatially and temporally and under what conditions they dominate. I utilized a recently developed molecular technique to experimentally identify active mixotrophs (taxa identified to be grazing when samples were collected) and combined this with microscopy data to estimate active mixotroph abundance and proportion at two locations in a temperate estuary over a year. Active mixotroph abundance was compared to potential mixotroph (taxa …


On The Relative Importance Of Offshelf/Onshelf Drivers Of Variability In Mcdw Inventory On The Amundsen Shelf, Antarctica, Pierre St-Laurent, S. E. Stammerjohn, T. Maksym, R. M. Sherrell Dec 2022

On The Relative Importance Of Offshelf/Onshelf Drivers Of Variability In Mcdw Inventory On The Amundsen Shelf, Antarctica, Pierre St-Laurent, S. E. Stammerjohn, T. Maksym, R. M. Sherrell

Presentations

Ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea (west Antarctica) are melting rapidly and may raise global sea levels substantially over the coming century through reduced buttressing. The high basal melt rates are associated with the presence of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) that intrudes across the continental shelf and melts the floating portion of the ice sheet from its base near the grounding zone. How much mCDW is present on the continental shelf (its volume inventory) is thus thought to be a key proxy for the year-to-year variability in ice shelf melt rates. Over the past decade, the literature has …


New Guidance To Build Resiliency And Mitigate For Sea Level Rise As Elements Of The Chesapeake Bay Preservation Act, Pamela Mason, Julie Herman, Christine Tombleson, Jessica Hendricks, Karen Duhring Nov 2022

New Guidance To Build Resiliency And Mitigate For Sea Level Rise As Elements Of The Chesapeake Bay Preservation Act, Pamela Mason, Julie Herman, Christine Tombleson, Jessica Hendricks, Karen Duhring

Reports

The Center for Coastal Resources Management (CCRM), Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS), worked in collaboration with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) and the Virginia Coastal Policy Center (VCPC) to develop guidance to inform the implementation of Chesapeake Bay Preservation Act (CBPA) regulations promulgated in 2021. The 2021 regulations added provisions to require local governments to consider climate changes, specifically flooding, sea level rise and storms, and the preservation of mature trees in the administration of the CBPA program. Specifically, CCRM developed analytical data using criteria specified in the CBPA regulations, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration …


Norfolk, Virginia Federal Flood Risk Management Study, Jian Shen, Rico Wang, Mac Sisson Sep 2022

Norfolk, Virginia Federal Flood Risk Management Study, Jian Shen, Rico Wang, Mac Sisson

Reports

The City of Norfolk and Norfolk District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), are partnering to conduct a Coastal Storm Risk Management Study (CSRM) study to determine the Federal interest and feasibility of alternatives to mitigate coastal flooding risk in the City. The CSRM is in the Feasibility Study (FS) phase in which alternatives are proposed and developed to conceptual/preliminary design level, benefit/cost analyses are conducted, and environmental studies are completed to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The magnitude of the feasibility study will require an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS).

A component of the FS/EIS is the …


Shear Turbulence In The High-Wind Southern Ocean Using Direct Measurements, Laur Ferris, Carole Anne Clayson, Donglai Gong, Et Al Jul 2022

Shear Turbulence In The High-Wind Southern Ocean Using Direct Measurements, Laur Ferris, Carole Anne Clayson, Donglai Gong, Et Al

VIMS Articles

The ocean surface boundary layer is a gateway of energy transfer into the ocean. Wind-driven shear and meteorologically forced convection inject turbulent kinetic energy into the surface boundary layer, mixing the upper ocean and transforming its density structure. In the absence of direct observations or the capability to resolve sub-grid scale 3D turbulence in operational ocean models, the oceanography community relies on surface boundary layer similarity scalings (BLS) of shear and convective turbulence to represent this mixing. Despite their importance, near-surface mixing processes (and ubiquitous BLS representations of these processes) have been under-sampled in high energy forcing regimes such as …


Wind-Modulated Western Maine Coastal Current And Its Connectivity With The Eastern Maine Coastal Current, Denghui Li, Zhengui Wang, Huijie Xue, Andrew C. Thomas, Ron J. Etter Jun 2022

Wind-Modulated Western Maine Coastal Current And Its Connectivity With The Eastern Maine Coastal Current, Denghui Li, Zhengui Wang, Huijie Xue, Andrew C. Thomas, Ron J. Etter

VIMS Articles

Using a high-resolution circulation model and an offline particle tracking model, we investigated variations of the Western Maine Coastal Current (WMCC) and its connectivity with the Eastern Maine Coastal Current (EMCC). The models showed that the weak, broad, and sinuous WMCC is generally southwestward with an offshore and a nearshore core, fed by the extension of the EMCC and runoff from the Penobscot and Kennebec–Androscoggin Rivers, respectively. A sea-level dome can form offshore of Casco Bay in late fall and early winter as the northeastward alongshore wind sets up a seaward sea-level gradient from the coast to meet the shoreward …


Analysis Of Edna To Assess Effects Of Water Quality On Freshwater Fungal Diversity In A Virginia Coastal Watershed, Lauren French Apr 2022

Analysis Of Edna To Assess Effects Of Water Quality On Freshwater Fungal Diversity In A Virginia Coastal Watershed, Lauren French

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Freshwater fungi comprise a phylogenetically and functionally diverse group which contributes to wide-ranging ecosystem processes in aquatic systems. Saprotrophic fungi convert detritus into nutrient-rich food sources for fish and invertebrates, whereas pathogenic and parasitic fungi can cause disease and population declines of other aquatic organisms. With their diverse and important roles, changes in freshwater fungal community structure may have far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. To understand how natural and anthropogenic stressors to freshwater systems impact fungal-mediated ecosystem processes, a greater understanding of the taxonomic and functional composition of freshwater fungal communities is needed. We assessed relationships among freshwater habitat types, water …


A General Pattern Of Trade-Offs Between Ecosystem Resistance And Resilience To Tropical Cyclones, Christopher J. Patrick, John S. Kominoski, (...), Enie Hensel, Marc J. S. Hense, Bradley A. Strickland, (..), A. K. Hardison, Sean Kinard, Et Al Mar 2022

A General Pattern Of Trade-Offs Between Ecosystem Resistance And Resilience To Tropical Cyclones, Christopher J. Patrick, John S. Kominoski, (...), Enie Hensel, Marc J. S. Hense, Bradley A. Strickland, (..), A. K. Hardison, Sean Kinard, Et Al

VIMS Articles

Tropical cyclones drive coastal ecosystem dynamics, and their frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution are pre-dicted to shift with climate change. Patterns of resistance and resilience were synthesized for 4138 ecosystem time series from n = 26 storms occurring between 1985 and 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere to predict how coastal ecosystems will respond to future disturbance regimes. Data were grouped by ecosystems (fresh water, salt water, terrestrial, and wetland) and response categories (biogeochemistry, hydrography, mobile biota, sedentary fauna, and vascular plants). We observed a repeated pattern of trade-offs between resistance and resilience across analyses. These patterns are likely the outcomes …


Controls On Sediment Bed Erodibility In A Muddy, Partially-Mixed Tidal Estuary, Cristin L. Wright, Carl T. Friedrichs, Grace M. Massey Mar 2022

Controls On Sediment Bed Erodibility In A Muddy, Partially-Mixed Tidal Estuary, Cristin L. Wright, Carl T. Friedrichs, Grace M. Massey

VIMS Articles

he objectives of this study are to better understand controls on bed erodibility in muddy estuaries, including the roles of both sediment properties and recent hydrodynamic history. An extensive data set of erodibility measurements, sediment properties, and hydrodynamic information was utilized to create statistical models to predict the erodibility of the sediment bed. This data set includes >160 eroded mass versus applied stress profiles collected over 15 years along the York River estuary, a system characterized by “depth-limited erosion,” such that the critical stress for erosion increases rapidly with depth into the bed. For this study, erodibility was quantified in …


Primary Productivity In The Mid-Atlantic Bight: Is The Shelf Break A Location Of Enhanced Productivity?, Jiejie Ma, Walker O. Smith Jr. Feb 2022

Primary Productivity In The Mid-Atlantic Bight: Is The Shelf Break A Location Of Enhanced Productivity?, Jiejie Ma, Walker O. Smith Jr.

VIMS Articles

Estimates of primary production represent the input of carbon into food webs, as well as the initial step in the biological pump. For the past 60 years, much of the productivity information has been obtained using measurements of 14C-bicarbonate removal during simulated in situ incubations. However, such measurements often do not reflect the complexity of the environment, and also suffer from uncertainties, biases and limitations. A vertically resolved bio-optical model has been used to estimate productivity based on profiles commonly assessed in oceanographic investigations, but comparisons with simultaneous measurements of 14C-uptake are limited. We conducted three cruises off the coast …


2022 Hampton Roads Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science Jan 2022

2022 Hampton Roads Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Miscellaneous

No abstract provided.


2022 Wachapreague Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science Jan 2022

2022 Wachapreague Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Miscellaneous

No abstract provided.


2022 Gloucester Point Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science Jan 2022

2022 Gloucester Point Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Miscellaneous

No abstract provided.


2022 Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science Jan 2022

2022 Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Station Tide Prediction Calendars, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Miscellaneous

No abstract provided.


Dynamical Controls Of The Eastward Transport Of Overwintering Calanus Finmarchicus From The Lofoten Basin To The Continental Slope, Huizi Dong, Meng Zhou, Walker O. Smith Jr., Et Al Jan 2022

Dynamical Controls Of The Eastward Transport Of Overwintering Calanus Finmarchicus From The Lofoten Basin To The Continental Slope, Huizi Dong, Meng Zhou, Walker O. Smith Jr., Et Al

VIMS Articles

Diapausing populations of Calanus finmarchicus at depth in the Lofoten Basin (LB) return to the continental shelf and slope off the Lofoten-Vesterålen Islands during the phytoplankton spring bloom to feed and spawn, forming surface swarms with a great abundance. To study how overwintering populations of C. finmarchicus move with the deep currents and return to the shelf, Lagrangian transport characteristics of particles in deep water between 2008 and 2019 were analyzed using Global Ocean Reanalysis and Simulation re-analysis data and Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs). Our analyses revealed that persistent eastward transport of diapausing C. finmarchicus between LB and continental slope …


The Middle Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies: Data Files, Gary F. Anderson Jan 2022

The Middle Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies: Data Files, Gary F. Anderson

Data

During the oil embargo in the mid-1970’s, the U.S. Government proposed exploring the mid-Atlantic continental shelf for oil leasing to increase production. The Virginia Institute of Marine Science was contracted by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to conduct baseline surveys of the biological, geological, chemical, and physical nature of the environment being considered for lease, and its sensitivity to prolonged exposure to contaminants derived from development activities. Surveys were conducted off the coast, from Virginia to New Jersey, four times a year (summer, fall, spring, winter) for two years beginning summer of 1975 through spring of 1977, resulting in …


Uncrewed Ocean Gliders And Saildrones Support Hurricane Forecasting And Research, Travis N. Miles, Dongxiao Zhang, Gregory R. Foltz, (...), Donglai Gong, Et Al Jan 2022

Uncrewed Ocean Gliders And Saildrones Support Hurricane Forecasting And Research, Travis N. Miles, Dongxiao Zhang, Gregory R. Foltz, (...), Donglai Gong, Et Al

VIMS Articles

In the United States alone, hurricanes have been responsible for thousands of deaths and over US$1 trillion in damages since 1980 (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/). These impacts are significantly greater globally, particularly in regions with limited hurricane early warning systems and where large portions of the population live at or near sea level. The high socioeconomic impacts of tropical cyclones will increase with a changing climate, rising sea level, and increasing coastal populations. To mitigate these impacts, efforts are underway to improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts, which drive storm surge models and evacuation orders and guide coastal preparations. Hurricane track forecasts have …