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Low-Probability High-Impact Events Are Even More Important Than It Is Usually Assumed, Aaron Velasco, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich Apr 2023

Low-Probability High-Impact Events Are Even More Important Than It Is Usually Assumed, Aaron Velasco, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

A large proportion of undesirable events like earthquakes, floods, tornados occur in zones where these events are frequent. However, a significant number of such events occur in other zones, where such events are rare. For example, while most major earthquakes occur in a vicinity of major faults, i.e., on the border between two tectonic plates, some strong earthquakes also occur inside plates. We want to mitigate all undesirable events, but our resources are limited. So, to allocate these resources, we need to decide which ones are more important. For this decision, a natural idea is to use the product of …


Wormholes, Superfast Computations, And Selivanov's Theorem, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich Apr 2023

Wormholes, Superfast Computations, And Selivanov's Theorem, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

While modern computers are fast, there are still many practical problems that require even faster computers. It turns out that on the fundamental level, one of the main factors limiting computation speed is the fact that, according to modern physics, the speed of all processes is limited by the speed of light. Good news is that while the corresponding limitation is very severe in Euclidean geometry, it can be more relaxed in (at least some) non-Euclidean spaces, and, according to modern physics, the physical space is not Euclidean. The differences from Euclidean character are especially large on micro-level, where quantum …


How People Make Decisions Based On Prior Experience: Formulas Of Instance-Based Learning Theory (Ilbt) Follow From Scale Invariance, Palvi Aggarwal, Martine Ceberio, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich Apr 2023

How People Make Decisions Based On Prior Experience: Formulas Of Instance-Based Learning Theory (Ilbt) Follow From Scale Invariance, Palvi Aggarwal, Martine Ceberio, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

To better understand human behavior, we need to understand how people make decisions, how people select one of possible actions. This selection is usually based on predicting consequences of different actions, and these predictions are, in their turn, based on the past experience. For example, consequences that occur more frequently in the past are viewed as more probable. However, this is not just about frequency: recent observations are usually given more weight that past ones. Researchers have discovered semi-empirical formulas that describe our predictions reasonably well; these formulas form the basis of the Instance-Based Learning Theory (ILBT). In this paper, …


What Do Goedel's Theorem And Arrow's Theorem Have In Common: A Possible Answer To Arrow's Question, Miroslav Svitek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich Apr 2023

What Do Goedel's Theorem And Arrow's Theorem Have In Common: A Possible Answer To Arrow's Question, Miroslav Svitek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

Kenneth Arrow, the renowned author of the Impossibility Theorem that explains the difficulty of group decision making, noticed that there is some commonsense similarity between his result and Goedel's theorem about incompleteness of axiomatic systems. Arrow asked if it is possible to describe this similarity in more precise terms. In this paper, we make the first step towards this description. We show that in both cases, the impossibility result disappears if we take into account probabilities. Namely, we take into account that we can consider probabilistic situations, that we can make probabilistic conclusions, and that we can make probabilistic decisions …


Why Gliding Symmetry Used To Be Prevalent In Biology But Practically Disappeared, Julio C. Urenda, Vladik Kreinovich Mar 2023

Why Gliding Symmetry Used To Be Prevalent In Biology But Practically Disappeared, Julio C. Urenda, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

At present, many living creatures have symmetries; in particular, the left-right symmetry is ubiquitous. Interestingly, 600 million years ago, very fee living creatures had the left-right symmetry: most of them had a gliding symmetry, symmetry with respect to shift along a line followed by reflection in this line. This symmetry is really seen in living creatures today. In this paper, we provide a physical-based geometric explanation for this symmetry change: we explain both why gliding symmetry was ubiquitous, and why at present, it is rarely observed, while the left-right symmetry is prevalent.


The World Is Cognizable: An Argument Based On Hoermander's Theorem, Miroslav Svitek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich Mar 2023

The World Is Cognizable: An Argument Based On Hoermander's Theorem, Miroslav Svitek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

Is the world cognizable? Is it, in principle, possible to predict the future state of the world based on the measurements and observations performed in a local area -- e.g., in the Solar system? In this paper, we use general physicists' principles and a mathematical theorem about partial differential equations to show that such prediction is indeed, theoretically possible.


Success (Studying Underlying Characteristics Of Computing And Engineering Student Success) Survey: Non-Cognitive And Affective Profiles In Engineering And Computing Students At Utep (2018-2022), Sanga Kim, Christian Teran Lopez, Andres Segura, Gabriel Miki Feb 2023

Success (Studying Underlying Characteristics Of Computing And Engineering Student Success) Survey: Non-Cognitive And Affective Profiles In Engineering And Computing Students At Utep (2018-2022), Sanga Kim, Christian Teran Lopez, Andres Segura, Gabriel Miki

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

No abstract provided.


Designing An Optimal Medicine Cocktail Is Np-Hard, Luc Longpre, Vladik Kreinovich Jan 2023

Designing An Optimal Medicine Cocktail Is Np-Hard, Luc Longpre, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In many cases, a combination of different drugs -- known as a medicine cocktail -- is more effective against a disease than each individual drug. It is desirable to find the most effective cocktail. This problem can be naturally formulated as a problem of maximizing a quadratic expression under the condition that all the unknowns (concentrations of different medicines) are non-negative. At first glance, it may seem that this problem is feasible -- since a similar economic problem of finding the optimal investment portfolio is known to be feasible. However, it turns out that the cocktail problem is different: it …


Interval-Valued And Set-Valued Extensions Of Discrete Fuzzy Logics, Belnap Logic, And Color Optical Computing, Victor L. Timchenko, Yury P. Kondratenko, Vladik Kreinovich Jan 2023

Interval-Valued And Set-Valued Extensions Of Discrete Fuzzy Logics, Belnap Logic, And Color Optical Computing, Victor L. Timchenko, Yury P. Kondratenko, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

It has been recently shown that in some applications, e.g., in ship navigation near a harbor, it is convenient to use combinations of basic colors -- red, green, and blue -- to represent different fuzzy degrees. In this paper, we provide a natural explanation for the efficiency of this empirical fact: namely, we show that it is reasonable to consider discrete fuzzy logics, it is reasonable to consider their interval-valued and set-valued extensions, and that a set-valued extension of the 3-values logic is naturally equivalent to the use of color combinations.


Why Fractional Fuzzy, Mehran Mazandarani, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich Jan 2023

Why Fractional Fuzzy, Mehran Mazandarani, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In many practical situation, control experts can only formulate their experience by using imprecise ("fuzzy") words from natural language. To incorporate this knowledge in automatic controllers, Lotfi Zadeh came up with a methodology that translate the informal expert statements into a precise control strategy. This methodology -- and its following modifications -- is known as fuzzy control. Fuzzy control often leads to a reasonable control -- and we can get an even better control results by tuning the resulting control strategy on the actual system. There are many parameters that can be changes during tuning, so tuning usually is rather …