Digital Commons Network^™

The Abcs Of Modified Bond Duration And Wxyzs Of Bond Convexity, Tom Arnold, Andrew C. Szakmary

Finance Faculty Publications

By breaking the mathematical derivation of Macaulay Duration, Modified Duration, and Bond Convexity into smaller easily calculated component parts, a more manageable means of calculation for these bond measures emerges for the student. Further, an Excel spreadsheet or an algorithm within a programming language can also be implemented using these smaller component calculations. The Excel template provided can be made into an assignment or used as a resource for the student.

Required Minimum Distribution (Rmd) Spreadsheet Calculators Based On The Secure Act Of 2022, Tom Arnold, John H. Earl, Jr., Cassandra D. Marshall

Finance Faculty Publications

Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Spreadsheet Calculators

Based on the SECURE Act of 2022

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act (SECURE Act) of 2022 made a second round of changes (relative to the SECURE Act of 2019) to the required minimum distribution (RMD) schedule for individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and defined contribution retirement plans. Excel spreadsheet calculators are developed to calculate the new annual RMD cash flows throughout retirement for those who are retired and for those who are planning to retire. The spreadsheet calculators also allow savings to accrue with interest if the RMD is in excess …

Simplified Portfolio Optimization Using Cramer’S Rule In Excel, Tom Arnold, Joseph Farizo, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

The matrix algebra associated with finding minimum variance portfolio weights, mapping the efficient frontier, and determining the tangency portfolio weights is greatly simplified in Excel by applying Cramer’s Rule. Only a scant knowledge of linear algebra is necessary for producing a very intuitive presentation for a multi-asset portfolio. The technique is very easily replicated for an assignment or for providing a classroom resource.

Monte Carlo And Bootstrapping Carry Trade Simulations In Excel, Tom Arnold, C. Mitchell Conover, Joseph Farizo

Finance Faculty Publications

In a currency carry trade, an investor borrows money in a low interest rate currency and invests in a high interest rate currency. The trade is profitable if the future exchange rate does not adjust to the interest rate differential. After downloading exchange rate data, a Monte Carlo simulation of a carry trade is performed in Excel based on a normal distribution and the data’s mean and standard deviation. A bootstrapping carry trade simulation exercise is also generated by randomly selecting observations from the historical data. In contrast to the Monte Carlo simulation, the bootstrapping exercise preserves the skewness within …

Using Excel To Simulate A Financial Calculator And Excel Tvm Formulas, Maura Alexander, Tom Arnold, Joseph Farizo

Finance Faculty Publications

Excel is used to build a simulation of the TI BAII-Plus financial calculator to illustrate the N, I/Y, PV, PMT, and FV inputs. Unlike other financial calculator simulators, this template also displays the corresponding Excel functions to aid in transitioning the student to using Excel for financial analysis.

Visual Timelines In Excel To Illustrate Tvm Calculations, Maura Alexander, Tom Arnold, Joseph Farizo

Finance Faculty Publications

Time value of money calculations are illustrated through developing a timeline with cash flow graphics in Excel. The cash flow graphics can be used in the live or virtual classroom and as a resource for students outside of the classroom. Further, the graphic is readily adjustable to different scenarios making it useful for multiple time value of money topics.

Visual Presentation Of Mirr And Mnpv Calculations, Tom Arnold, Joseph Farizo

Finance Faculty Publications

Project cash flows and modified cash flows are presented in an illustrative graphic within Excel for the live or virtual classroom. Further, the graphic computes and displays the relevant modified internal rate of return (MIRR) and modified net present value (MNPV), with associated formulas. The presentation allows for a discussion of the reinvestment assumption attributed to the internal rate of return (IRR) and the net present value (NPV) calculations.

Chronic Disease Management: How It And Analytics Create Healthcare Value Through The Temporal Displacement Of Care, Steve M. Thompson, Johnathan Whitaker, Rajiv Kohli, Craig Jones

Finance Faculty Publications

The treatment of chronic diseases consumes 86% of U.S. healthcare costs. While healthcare organizations have traditionally focused on treating the complications of chronic diseases, advances in information technology (IT) and analytics can help clinicians and patients manage and slow the progression of chronic diseases to result in higher quality of life for patients and lower healthcare costs.

We build on prior research to introduce the notion of temporal displacement of care (TDC), in which IT and analytics create healthcare value by displacing the time at which providers and patients make interventions to improve healthcare outcomes and reduce costs. We propose …

One-Step Bond Pricing, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper re-works the traditional formula for pricing a bond with a present value annuity and a single discounted cash flow into a "one-step' bond pricing formula. The new derivation allows for a clear presentation of the relationship between a bond's coupon yield and its yield to maturity and a quick means for pricing a bond.

How Large Are The Benefits Of Emerging Market Equities?, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen, Robert R. Johnson

Finance Faculty Publications

We perform a comprehensive evaluation of the benefits of emerging market equities by extending previous research in four fundamental ways. The contribution of this study is that it 1) evaluates a more complete sample; 2) examines performance measures that account for asymmetric return distributions; 3) separates emerging markets by region; and 4) considers the influence that the market environment has on the benefits of emerging market investments. Our results suggest that previous research has understated the benefits associated with investing in emerging markets. We find that broad emerging market indices have relatively low downside risk, which results in Sortino ratios …

An Easy Method To Introduce Mirr Into Introductory Finance Classes, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

In this paper, the modified internal rate of return (MIRR) is demonstrated to be a holding period return calculation that is not dependent on knowing a project's internal rate of return (IRR) nor the process for finding the IRR. Further, the MIRR calculation can be directly connected to the calculation of the profitability index (PI) and the net present value (NPV) if project cash flows are discounted using a firm's weighted average cost of capital. This connection to the PI and NPV allows for an intuitively appealing presentation of the MIRR calculation.

Salary Inversion In Business Schools: Does A Rising Tide Lift All Boats?, Tom Arnold, Raymond P.H. Fishe, Adam Schwartz

Finance Faculty Publications

The paper analyzes AACSB salary survey information from 1979 to 2008. The question addressed in this analysis is whether salary inversion is widespread across the three business disciplines of accounting, economics, and finance. We find limited evidence of mean level inversions, which is concentrated in recent years. Stochastic dominance methods confirm these results. We also develop a measure of salary dominance based on comparing the distribution of reported salaries. This statistic shows a significant trend towards salary inversion in finance and accounting.

Extending The Arnold-Eisemann Algorithm For Pro Forma Circularity With A Specific Mix Of New Debt And New Equity, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

Arnold and Eisemann (2008) developed an algorithm that calculates the value of long-term debt when long-term debt is considered the "plug" or "slack" term within a pro forma analysis. In this paper, the algorithm is presented in a slightly different form and adjusted for the use of a target mix of new debt and new stock.

Mixed Agendas And Government Regulation Of Business: Can We Clean Up The Mess?, Tom Arnold, Jerry L. Stevens

Finance Faculty Publications

The history of regulation in the U.S. economy shows a cumulative growth of government involvement in private enterprise that has helped business at times and has been at odds with business at other times. The wavering views on how much regulation is warranted change over time and cut across political and philosophical ideologies. For example, in the first two years of President Barack Obama's administration there was a push for new and large increases in regulation of healthcare and financial markets along with intervention into public markets with massive spending to bailout automakers and financial institutions.

Now, in the second …

Putting Ratios Into A Firm Value Context For Entrepreneurs And Entrepreneurship Students, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

Ratio analysis is generally presented as something that has to be calculated after completing other financial statements and is generally viewed, particularly by students, as busy-work with little value. This paper changes the context of ratio analysis in order to demonstrate how a focus on the information provided by ratios adds to the value of the firm. By dissecting the valuation of a publicly traded firm using a price to earnings ratio multiplier, value generating factors in the form of ratios, can be inferred for smaller nonpublicly traded ventures.

Maintaining A Flexible Payout Policy In A Mature Industry: The Case Of Crown Cork And Seal In The Connelly Era, James Ang, Tom Arnold, C. Mitchell Conover, Carol Lancaster

Finance Faculty Publications

As related in these pages, the history of Crown Cork and Seal (hereafter known as “Crown”) provides us with a case of a company that stopped paying dividends but establish a disciplined share repurchase policy and did so for all the right reasons. Under family ownership in the 1950s, Crown lost market share and was on the brink of bankruptcy when its largest shareholder, John Connelly, was elected chairman of the board in 1957. Under John Connelly’s leadership, the firm restructured its operations and began a payout policy based solely on stock repurchases. During the Connelly era, the firm did …

Real Options Analysis And The Assumptions Of Corporate Finance: A Non-Technical Review, Tom Arnold, Richard L. Shockley Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper provides a non-technical presentation of the theoretical foundations of corporate financial decision making and the net present value (NPV) rule. Our objective is to show that the concepts of value and value creation arise from a single, unified framework that is firmly rooted in neoclassical microeconomic theory. This, in turn, allow us to demonstrate that the corporate valuation approach generically known as real options analysis is perfectly justifiable - without further qualification - in any situation when investors want managers to maximize NPV.

The Timeliness Of Accounting Disclosures In International Security Markets, C. Mitchell Conover, Robert E. Miller, Andrew Szakmary

Finance Faculty Publications

In this study, we examine financial reporting lags, the incidence of late filing, and the relationship between reporting lags, firm performance and the degree of capital market scrutiny. We use a large sample of firms spanning 22 countries over an eleven-year period. A focal point of our analysis is whether the incidence of late filing, and the relations between reporting days and other variables, differ systematically between common and code law countries. Relative to U.S. firms, we report that the time taken and allowed for filing is usually longer in other countries and that the statutory requirement is more frequently …

Debt Financing Does Not Create Circularity Within Pro Forma Analysis, Tom Arnold, Peter C. Eisemann

Finance Faculty Publications

Using debt to finance a firm's external financing need within a pro forma analysis can lead to "circularity" when finding the appropriate value for debt. The circularity incorrectly implies that there is no direct solution for finding the value of debt. In this paper, a direct solution for the value of debt is found; thereby showing that circularity need not exist. Further, the technique is demonstrated to be more accurate than the "additional funds needed" (AFN) approach featured in many texts.

An Examination Of Value Line’S Long-Term Projection, Andrew Szakmary, C. Mitchell Conover, Carol Lancaster

Finance Faculty Publications

Unlike previous papers, which have focused on the timeliness ranks, we examine Value Line’s 3–5 year projections for stock returns, earnings, sales and related measures. We find that Value Line’s stock return and earnings forecasts exhibit large positive bias, although their sales predictions do not. For stock returns, Value Line’s projections lack predictive power; for other variables predictive power may exist to some degree. Our findings suggest the spectacular past performance of the timeliness indicator reflects either close alignment with other known anomalies or data mining, and that investors and researchers should use Value Line’s long-term projections with caution.

Duration Measures For Corporate Project Valuation, Tom Arnold, David S. North

Finance Faculty Publications

Sensitivity analysis is a very common exercise performed with the forecasting of project cash flows. In this paper, a duration-type measure is generated that provides a single number for the assessment of project cash flows relative to changes in the discount rate (or adjusted for changes in a particular cash flow model parameter). The calculation is no more difficult than the duration measures that already exist for bonds. Yet, the calculation provides valuable insight that many times is lost when performing sensitivity analysis. Further, at a minimum, the measure provides a gauge for the consequences of mis-specifiying the discount rate …

Corruption, Foreign Direct Investment And The Cost Of Doing Business In Vietnam, Tom Arnold, Bonnie Buchanan

Finance Faculty Publications

Corruption is a key impediment to: foreign direct investment, an accurate measurement of political risk, and a barrier to effective corporate governance. By examining the political structure of Vietnam and the impediments created by corruption, this paper defines some of the difficulties with investing in Vietnam. However, with regard to the sugar industry, some solutions have emerged with companies taking direct control of contracting, offering credit, and the building of infrastructure.

A Simplified Approach To Understanding The Kalman Filter Technique, Tom Arnold, Mark J. Bertus, Jonathan Godbey

Finance Faculty Publications

The Kalman filter is a time series estimation algorithm that is applied extensively in the field of engineering and recently (relative to engineering) in the field of finance and economics. However, presentations of the technique are somewhat intimidating despite the relative ease of generating the algorithm. This article presents the Kalman filter in a simplified manner and produces an example of an application of the algorithm in Excel. This scaled-down version of the Kalman filter can be introduced in the (advanced) undergraduate classroom as well as the graduate classroom.

A Simple Model Of Interest Rate Term Structure, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

Without much technical expertise, a yield curve model is presented that is very dynamic and can be easily programmed in Excel for classroom presentation or for assignments. By using the output of the model to have students find embedded rates within the yield curve, a discussion of how bond traders speculate on interest rates emerges very easily. Further, the model output can also be used for numerous exercises including the pricing of strips or for evaluating the positions of an entire bond portfolio. Within the exercises, the dynamic nature of the model can be exploited to provide sensitivity analysis.

Are Cover Stories Effective Contrarian Indicators?, Tom Arnold, John H. Earl, David S. North

Finance Faculty Publications

Headlines from cover stories are collected over a twenty year period from Business Week, Fortune, and Forbes to determine if positive stories are associated with superior future performance and if negative stories are associated with inferior future performance for the featured firm (when compared to an index or to another firm within the same industry and of the same size). Statistical testing implies that positive stories generally indicate the end of superior performance and negative news generally indicates the end of poor performance.

Implied Binomial Trees In Excel Without Vba, Tom Arnold, Timothy Falcon Crack, Adam Schwartz

Finance Faculty Publications

We implement a Rubinstein-type (1994) implied binomial tree using an Excel spreadsheet, but without using VBA (Visual Basic Application). We demonstrate both the optimization needed to generate implied ending risk-neutral probabilities from a set of actual option prices and the backwards recursion needed to solve for the entire implied tree. By using only standard Excel spreadsheet functions, and not resorting to VBA, this complicated option pricing technique is now immediately transparent to academics, students, and practitioners alike. The intuition gained from our simple spreadsheet can be applied directly to the estimation of more complicated implied trees using more advanced software. …

The Relationship Between The Value Effect And Industry Affiliation, John C. Banko, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine industry affiliation and the relationship between stock returns and book‐to‐market equity (the value effect). The robustness of the value effect is supported as a significant value premium is shown to exist in 15 of 21 industries. Both industry and firm‐level value effects are identified; however, the firm‐level effect is the more prominent of the two. Further, the value effect is shown to be strongest in value industries and weakest in growth industries. Finally, we show evidence consistent with the claim that the value premium is due to investors requiring higher returns from firms in distressed conditions.

Applying Altman's Z-Score In The Classroom, Tom Arnold, John H. Earl Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

Altman's Z-score is introduced in an Excel framework to produce a quick calculation of the Z-score with actual financial data available through the Internet. The lesson plan developed is easily introduced with topics covering ratio analysis, financial risk, bond rating changes, and bankruptcy. Given the wide use of the Z-score in practice to evaluate credit risk (or bankruptcy risk), the lesson plan produces a skill set that is very marketable.

Adding Depth To The Discussion Of Capital Budgeting Techniques, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

The subject of capital budgeting generally encompasses a significant percentage of any beginning finance course with net present value (NPV) often receiving the most attention. Even after this substantial time allotment, critical assumptions and comparisons of the different techniques (such as payback period, discounted payback period, NPV and IRR) are frequently glossed over due to time constraints. Consequently, the goal of this paper is to present these non-NPV techniques in a manner that allows the beginning finance student to expeditiously see the intuition, inherent assumptions, and any connection with the more popular NPV calculation. A small portion of this paper …

Getting More Out Of Two Asset Portfolios, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Two-asset portfolio mathematics is a fixture in many introductory finance and investment courses. However, the actual development of the efficient frontier and capital market line are generally left to a heuristic discussion with diagrams. In this article, the mathematics for calculating these attributes of two-asset portfolios are introduced in a framework intended for the undergraduate classroom.