Digital Commons Network^™

A Comprehensive Analysis Of Team Streakiness In Major League Baseball: 1962-2016, Paul H. Kvam, Zezhong Chen

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

A baseball team would be considered “streaky” if its record exhibits an unusually high number of consecutive wins or losses, compared to what might be expected if the team’s performance does not really depend on whether or not they won their previous game. If an average team in Major League Baseball (i.e., with a record of 81-81) is not streaky, we assume its win probability would be stable at around 50% for most games, outside of peculiar details of day-to-day outcomes, such as whether the game is home or away, who is the starting pitcher, and so on.

In this …