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Climate Scenarios For California, Edwin P. Maurer, Michael Dettinger, Daniel Cayan, Mary Tyree, Katherine Hayhoe, Celine Bonfils, Philip B. Duffy, Benjamin Santer
Climate Scenarios For California, Edwin P. Maurer, Michael Dettinger, Daniel Cayan, Mary Tyree, Katherine Hayhoe, Celine Bonfils, Philip B. Duffy, Benjamin Santer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) …
A Spatially Distributed Model For The Dynamic Prediction Of Sediment Erosion And Transport In Mountainous Forested Watersheds, Colleen O. Doten, Laura C. Bowling, Jordan S. Lanini, Edwin P. Maurer, Dennis P. Lettenmaier
A Spatially Distributed Model For The Dynamic Prediction Of Sediment Erosion And Transport In Mountainous Forested Watersheds, Colleen O. Doten, Laura C. Bowling, Jordan S. Lanini, Edwin P. Maurer, Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Erosion and sediment transport in a temperate forested watershed are predicted with a new sediment model that represents the main sources of sediment generation in forested environments (mass wasting, hillslope erosion, and road surface erosion) within the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM) environment. The model produces slope failures on the basis of a factor-of-safety analysis with the infinite slope model through use of stochastically generated soil and vegetation parameters. Failed material is routed downslope with a rule-based scheme that determines sediment delivery to streams. Sediment from hillslopes and road surfaces is also transported to the channel network. A simple channel routing …
Amplification Of Streamflow Impacts Of El Niño By Increased Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases, Edwin P. Maurer, Seran Gibbard, Philip B. Duffy
Amplification Of Streamflow Impacts Of El Niño By Increased Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases, Edwin P. Maurer, Seran Gibbard, Philip B. Duffy
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Some El Niño events produce unusually large precipitation amounts in Northern and Central California. We use a high-resolution global model of the atmosphere coupled to a physically-based model of surface hydrology to investigate effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and this type of El Niño, both individually and in combination, on monthly river flows in California. Increased CO2 changes the seasonal timing of river flows and increases their variability. SST anomalies typical of a strong El Niño SST increase monthly-mean flows. The two perturbations together result in increased mean flows and increased variability, raising the possibility of both increased flood risk …