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Consistent Assumptions For Modeling Credit Loss Correlations, Jan Dhaene, Marc J. Goovaerts, Robert Koch, Ruben Olieslagers, Olivier Romijn, Steven Vanduffel

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We consider a single period portfolio of n dependent credit risks that are subject to default during the period. We show that using stochastic loss given default random variables in conjunction with default correlations can give rise to an inconsistent set of assumptions for estimating the variance of the portfolio loss. Two sets of consistent assumptions are provided, which it turns out, also provide bounds on the variance of the portfolio's loss. An example of an inconsistent set of assumptions is given.

On Some Risk-Adjusted Tail-Based Premium Calculation Principles, Edward Furman, Zinoviy Landsman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper explores two tail-based premium calculation principles, the tail standard deviation (TSD) premium and the tail conditional expectation (TCE) premium, in their risk-adjusted and unadjusted forms. They are risk-adjusted using so-called distortion functions. We prove that the proportional hazard (PH) risk-adjusted TCE premium is larger than the unadjusted TCE premium. Additionally, given a risk distribution with location and scale parameters, we prove that the PH risk-adjusted TCE premium reduces to the unadjusted TSD premium.

Bayesian Analysis Of A Health Insurance Model, Helio S. Migon, Edison M.O. Penna

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We consider the problem of determining health insurance premiums based on past information on size of loss, number of losses, and size of population at risk. The size of loss and the number of losses are treated as mutually independent random variables. The number of losses is assumed to follow a Poisson process, and the loss sizes are independent and identically distributed non-negative random variables, and the population at risk is assumed to follow a non-linear growth model. An expression for the premium is obtained through maximization of the insurer's expected utility under a Bayesian model. The parameter estimation process …

Bayesian Analysis Of Insurance Losses Using The Buhlmann-Straub Credibility Model, Abraham J. Van Der Merwe, Kobus N. Bekker

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We propose a Bayesian analysis to develop credibility estimates of the well known Biihlmann-Straub model. We describe simple numerical methods to obtain exact posterior distributions and predictive densities under this model. These distributions are obtained through Monte Carlo simulations that generate independent samples from the joint posterior distribution. Our methods are therefore preferable to methods such as Gibbs sampling, which generates dependent samples from the joint distribution. The methods discussed also can be extended to more complicated credibility models.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 13, 2006, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

ARTICLES

Bivariate Archimedean Copula Models for Censored Data in Non-Life Insurance • Michel Denuit, Dana Purcaru, and Ingrid Van Keilegom 5

Bayesian Analysis of Insurance Losses Using the Biihlmann-Straub Credibility Model • Abraham J. van der Merwe and Kobus N Bekker . 33

Bayesian Analysis of a Health Insurance Model • Helio S. Migon and Edison M. O. Penna 61

Solvency of Life Insurance Companies: Methodological Issues • Rosa Cocozza and Emilia Di Lorenzo . 81

Pricing Insurance Policies with a Distribution-Free Financial Pricing Model • Min-Ming Wen . 103

A Note on the Instability of the Unprojected Individual Level …

Analysis Of An Insurance Risk Model With Thinning Dependence And Common Shock, Lai Mei Wan, Kam Chuen Yuen, Wai Keung Li

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We consider a continuous-time insurance risk model with m dependent classes of business with dependent claim number processes due to thinning dependence and a common shock. The impact of the dependence is studied via the adjustment coefficient. The case m = 2 is investigated analytically for exponential claim distributions and via simulation for non-exponential claim distributions.

Transparency In Financial Markets And Institutions: A Catholic Social Thought Perspecitve, Bridget Lyons, Lucjan T. Orlowski

Presidential Seminar on the Catholic Intellectual Tradition

We argue that transparency, or information disclosure by public and private sector institutions should be viewed as an important component of the Catholic Social Thought process. A higher degree of transparency by a single institution denotes revealing a greater magnitude of truthful information that leads to optimization of actions by other individuals and institutions, thus ultimately, to maximization of social welfare. Based on the precepts of Catholic Social Thought, more detailed and unbiased information allows individuals to make more truthful observations of reality that subsequently rationalize their judgment and actions. This is particularly relevant for financial markets and institutions that …

Purchasing Power Parity And Heterogeneous Mean Reversion, Kees G. Koedijk, Ben Tims, Mathijs A. Van Dijk

CRIF Seminar series

This paper analyzes the properties of multivariate tests of purchasing power parity (PPP) that fail to take heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion across real exchange rates into account. We compare the performance of homogeneous and heterogeneous unit root testing methodologies. The recent literature has successfully contested several severe restrictions on the structure of the model, but the assumption of homogeneous mean reversion is still widely used and its consequences are virtually unexplored. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we uncover important adverse properties of the methodology that relies on homogeneous estimation and testing. More specifically, power functions are low and …

Do Option Markets Substitute For Stock Markets?, Tom Arnold, Gayle Erwin, Lance Nail, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Using a sample of cash tender offers occurring between 1993 and 2002, we find evidence that the options market has become the preferred venue for traders attempting to profit on anticipated announcements. Options offer advantages relative to stocks. Traders gain leverage by trading in options and multiple options contracts on an individual stock. The results of our study indicate that a substitution effect does exist. Abnormal volume in the option market replaces abnormal volume in the stock market prior to cash tender offer announcements, and this abnormal option volume precedes abnormal stock volume for targets with or without traded options.

Intraday Stock Prices, Volume, And Duration: A Nonparametric Conditional Density Analysis, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the distribution of high-frequency price changes, conditional on trading volume and duration between trades, on four stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The conditional probabilities are estimated nonparametrically using local polynomial regression methods. We find substantial skewness in the distribution of price changes, with the direction of skewness dependent on the sign of trade. We also find that the probability of larger price changes increases with volume, but only for trades that occur with longer durations. The distribution of price changes vary with duration primarily when volume is high.

The Impact Of Financial Market And Resale Market On Firm Strategies, Zhiling Guo, Andrew B. Whinston

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The ever-increasing use of information technology (IT) in business transactions greatly expands firms? exposure to different electronic markets. This paper provides a framework to understand how firms can leverage different strategies across external financial markets and an internal resale market to improve overall profitability. We develop a model in which a group of risk-averse retailers sell a homogeneous product to their respective uncertain consumer markets. We study a scenario where an internal resale market can be constructed among the retailers and outside financial markets can be used to improve their ability to manage uncertainty. We identify strategies for retailers operating …

Empirical Evidence On Jurisdictions That Adopt Ifrs, Ole-Kristian Hope, Justin Jin, Tony Kang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) have recently been adopted in a number of jurisdictions, including the European Union. Despite the importance of IFRS in the context of global accounting standards harmonization, little is known regarding what institutional factors influence countries' decisions to voluntarily adopt IFRS. This issue is relevant to standard-setters because a better understanding of the motivations for adoption will enable them to promote IFRS more effectively to countries that currently do not employ IFRS. Consistent with bonding theory, we find that countries with weaker investor protection mechanisms are more likely to adopt IFRS. Our evidence also shows that …

States Fight Predatory Lending Laws In Different Ways, Giang Ho, Anthony Pennington-Cross

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

To restrict predatory lending in the subprime (high cost) mortgage market, Congress enacted in 1994 the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA). This law restricts some types of lending and requires lenders to disclose additional information about loans that have predatory features. Following the lead of federal regulations, at least 23 states, beginning with North Carolina in 1999, have introduced their own predatory lending laws, using HOEPA as a template.1

Perhaps not surprisingly, research focusing on the impact of the North Carolina law found that the rate of applications and originations for subprime loans declined after the law took …

Conceptualization Of Trust, Commitment, And Understanding The Relationships Between Trust, Commitment, And Willingness To Try Internet Banking Services, Siew Tong Fock, Hian Chye Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines trust and commitment and their antecedents and consequences within the context of Internet banking, based on data collected from a survey of 500 Singapore undergraduates. After the establishment of a conceptual model that links trust and commitment to the willingness to try Internet banking, the empirical findings show that higher levels of trust and commitment are significantly associated with a greater willingness to try Internet banking. The paper also investigates security, ethics, privacy, openness, the speed of response, quality of information, regulatory control, technology advancement, and reputation as determinants of trust. Of these, security, regulatory control, technology …

Conflicts Of Interest And Stock Recommendations: The Effects Of The Global Settlement And Related Regulations, Rong Wang, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Tzachi Zach

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Prior research has shown that sell-side analysts in general, and especially those facing conflicts of interest driven by investment bank relationships, issue overly optimistic recommendations. This paper studies the effect of regulations on sell-side analysts’ research. These regulations — Rule NASD 2711, Rule NYSE 472, and the “Global Analyst Research Settlement” — attempted to mitigate the interdependence between the research and the investment bank departments of US brokerage houses. The results suggest that the regulations have partially achieved their goal of curbing the conflicts of interest’s influence over analysts’ stock recommendations. After the adoption of the new regulations, the likelihood …

Ua9 Investing In The Spirit, Wku Development & Alumni Relations

WKU Archives Records

Development office newsletter regarding donors and donations to Western Kentucky University.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 13 (2006) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, Actuarial Frameworks ○ …

Spatial Distribution Of Frequency And Severity Of Water Claims In California, Gurbhag Singh, Max Tang, Don Mcneill, Lyn Hunstad

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We examine the frequency and severity of water loss claims for homeowners insurance across the state of California for the experience years 2000, 2001, and 2002. The spatial distribution patterns of frequencies and severities are mapped and analyzed at the zip code level. The maps reveal the pockets of high frequencies and severities. The information provided in this paper will assist actuaries and policy makers in their quest to set accurate rates for homeowners insurance.

Pricing Insurance Policies With A Distribution-Free Financial Pricing Model, Min-Ming Wen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

The highly skewed and heavy tailed distributions used to model insurance losses (claims) raise a concern about the validity of the applications of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to insurance pricing when market risks are essential. This paper provides an alternative pricing model, called the Rubinstein-Leland model, which can be used to price insurance contracts. The Rubinstein-Leland model has a distribution-free feature that can fully capture the asymmetry embedded in insurance losses. Thus, this model is better able to derive fair prices for insurance policies than is the CAPM.

Bivariate Archimedean Copula Models For Censored Data In Non-Life Insurance, Michel Denuit, Oana Purcaru, Ingrid Van Keilegom

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

We describe a methodology based on Archimedean copulas for analyzing nonlife insurance data with censoring present. Specifically, we propose a graphical selection procedure for the nonparametric estimation of the generator. An actual loss-ALAE data set is used for the numerical illustrations and for comparisons of our approach to a few others.

Outsourcing Central Banking: Lessons From Estonia, Sarkis Joseph Khoury, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

An orthodox currency board (CB) renders central banking redundant for interest and exchange rate determination. Thereby, monetary policy is de facto outsourced. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in banking can lead to outsourcing of the second important central bank function, responsibility for banking supervision. Economic and political conditions for outsourcing of central banking are discussed. Estonia's experience with a CB and expanding foreign involvement in banking is reviewed. The Argentine CB experience is discussed briefly to provide a contrast. The conclusion outlines the conditions for successful currency outsourcing to another country or regional authority.

Tracing, Peter B. Oh

Articles

Tracing is a method that appears within multiple fields of law. Distinct conceptions of tracing, however, have arisen independently within securities and remedial law. In the securities context plaintiffs must trace their securities to a specific offering to pursue certain relief under the Securities Act of 1933. In the remedial context victims who trace their misappropriated value into a wrongdoer's hands can claim any derivative value, even if it has appreciated.

This article is the first to compare and then cross-apply tracing within these two contexts. Specifically, this article argues that securities law should adopt a version of the rules-based …

Re-Evaluating Hedging Performance, Jim Hanly, John Cotter

Articles

Mixed results have been documented for the performance of hedging strategies using futures. This paper reinvestigates this issue using an extensive set of performance evaluation metrics across seven international markets. We compare the hedging performance of short and long hedgers using traditional variance based approaches together with modern risk management techniques including Value at Risk, Conditional Value at Risk and approaches based on Downside Risk. Our findings indicate that using these metrics to evaluate hedging performance, yields differences in terms of best hedging strategy as compared with the traditional variance measure. We also find significant differences in performance between short …

Corporate Governance, Public Accounting Firm And Multinational Corporation: The Us Sox Act Perspective, Marc Massoud, Eunsup Daniel Shim

WCBT Faculty Publications

The purpose of this paper is to review US corporate governance systems and to highlight the mandated roles of audit committee and external auditor within the SOX Act. In addition, it discusses requirements and implications of the SOX Act for the foreign accounting firms and multinational corporations. Finally this paper provides a perspective on improvement of corporate governance and financial integrity. In order to regain trust from the financial market, the SOX Act mandates (1) to improve auditor’s independence by reducing conflicts of interest; (2) to increase corporate financial reporting responsibility by requiring a CEO or a CFO certify accuracy …

Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Christian Gourieroux, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

It is well-known that maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects is inconsistent under fixed time series sample size (T) and large cross section sample size (N) asymptotics. The estimation bias is particularly relevant in practical applications when T is small and the autoregressive parameter is close to unity. The present paper proposes a general, computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on indirect inference (Gouriéroux et al., 1993), shows unbiasedness and analyzes efficiency. The method is implemented in a simple linear dynamic panel model, but has wider …

Profiling The Risk Attitudes Of Clients By Financial Advisors: The Effects Of Framing On Response Validity, M. Mccrae

Faculty of Business - Accounting & Finance Working Papers

The Australian Financial Services Reform Act (2001) now requires all registered financial planners to assess a client’s attitude towards investment risk as an integral part of establishing a ‘reasonable’ basis for investment advice to a client. However, the Act is silent on required procedures or acceptable minimum standards of risk assessment. Unfortunately, current methods for assessing a client’s attitudes towards investment risk are mostly informal, untested and ignore such behavioral biases as framing and other response anomalies. Unless controlled for, these anomalies can invert risk attitude responses and invalidate portfolio choices recommended to the client on the basis of this …

A Model Of Trust Between Branch Managers And Loan Officers Of Indian Banks, S. Bhati

Faculty of Business - Accounting & Finance Working Papers

The lending climate for banks in India is very different from those in western countries. Banks in India undertake many additional risks when they lend to customers . Also, there are a number of impediments for banks in India for recovering their loans. Some of these impediments have been put in place due to the government policies. Others have been created due to lack of proper legal protection to banks. The instrument based quantitative methods have limitations in evaluating the lending risk for banks in India because instrument based methods use variables which cannot be accurately described and measured by …

Harnessing Innovative Technologies In Higher Education: Access, Equity, Policy & Instruction, Kathleen P. King, Joan K. Griggs

Leadership, Counseling, Adult, Career and Higher Education Faculty Publications

This publication is an attempt to capture the evolution of distributed higher education over the last decade by tracing the applications of new technologies funded by the Fund for the Improvement of Postsecondary Education (FIPSE). As FIPSE surveyed the current state of distance/distributed education, there existed an opportunity to help post econdary education make the transition to this new generation of distance education made possible by the explosive growth of the Internet and other new technologies. These technologies created the potential for students to access learning that was interactive, customized, and self-paced; to more easily merge lifelong learning with the …

Divergent Opinions And Value Stock Performance, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

Those who believe that capital markets—that is, markets for stocks and bonds—operate efficiently and asset prices fully reflect all publicly available information are engaged in an ongoing debate about the exact interpretation of the “value premium” with those who reject this view. Value premium refers to the superior returns generated by the purchase of value stocks relative to growth, or glamour, stocks. Rationalists, the group believing in market efficiency, argue that because value stocks are fundamentally riskier than growth stocks, the value premium is compensation for bearing risk. Behavioralists, the group arguing that market asset prices don’t reflect all publicly …

Capital Structure Dynamics And Stock Returns, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Many finance theories predict that the capital structure affects firm value, which implies that the changes in leverage have an impact on stock returns. Most of the existing literature however has been focusing on the determinants of the capital structure. Using a sample of U.S. public firms during 1975-2002, we document a significantly negative effect of leverage changes on next-quarter stock returns. This effect remains significant after controlling for other firm characteristics such as ROE, book-to-market, firm size, and past returns. We propose and test several hypotheses to explain the observed effect. We find that the negative effect is stronger …