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How Have The World’S Poorest Fared Since The Early 1980s?, Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen

Martin Ravallion

We present new estimates of the extent of the developing world’s progress against poverty. By the frugal $1 per day standard, we find that there were 1.1 billion poor in 2001 — almost 400 million fewer than 20 years earlier. Over the same period, the number of poor declined by over 400 million in China, though half of this decline was in the first few years of the 1980s. The number of poor outside China rose slightly over the period. A marked bunching up of people between $1 and $2 per day has also emerged, with an increase over time …

Are There Lasting Impacts Of Aid To Poor Areas? Evidence From Rural China, Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen, Ren Mu

Martin Ravallion

The paper re-visits the site of a large, World Bank-financed, rural development program in China, 10 years after it began and four years after disbursements ended. The program emphasized community participation in multi-sectoral interventions (including farming, animal husbandry, infrastructure and social services). Data were collected on 2,000 households in project and non-project areas, spanning 10 years. A double-difference estimator of the program’s impact (on top of pre-existing governmental programs) reveals sizeable short-term income gains that were mostly saved. Only small and statistically insignificant gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer-term — though in rough accord with the gain to …

China's (Uneven) Progress Against Poverty, Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen

Martin Ravallion

While the incidence of extreme poverty fell dramatically in China over 1980-2001, progress was uneven over time and across provinces. Rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor, though migration to urban areas helped. Rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth; agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of GDP. Taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor; local government spending helped them in absolute terms; external trade had little short-term impact. Provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against …

Partially Awakened Giants: Uneven Growth In China And India, Martin Ravallion, Shubham Chaudhuri

Martin Ravallion

The paper examines the ways in which recent economic growth has been uneven in China and India and what this has meant for inequality and poverty. Drawing on analyses based on existing household survey data and aggregate data from official sources, the authors show that growth has indeed been uneven—geographically, sectorally and at the household-level—and that this has meant uneven progress against poverty, less poverty reduction than might have been achieved had growth been more balanced, and an increase in income inequality. The paper then examines why growth was uneven and why this should be of concern. The discussion is …

Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs, Martin Ravallion

Martin Ravallion

The chapter critically reviews the methods available for the ex-post counterfactual analysis of programs that are assigned exclusively to individuals, households or locations. The emphasis is on the specific problems encountered in applying these methods to anti-poverty programs in developing countries, drawing on examples from actual evaluations. Two main lessons emerge. Firstly, despite the claims of advocates, no single method dominates; rigorous, policy-relevant evaluations should be open-minded about methodology, adapting to the problem, setting and data constraints. Secondly, future efforts to draw useful lessons from evaluations call for more policy-relevant data and methods than the classic (“black box”) assessment of …

Nonmarket Performance: Evidence From U.S. Electric Utilities, Jean-Philippe Bonardi, Guy Holburn, Rick Vanden Bergh

Jean-Philippe Bonardi

No abstract provided.

Simulation Of The Colombian Firm Energy Market, Peter Cramton, Steven Stoft

Peter Cramton

We present a simulation analysis of the proposed Colombian firm energy market. The main purpose of the simulation is to assess the risk to suppliers of participation in the market. We also are able to consider variations in the market design, and assess the impact of alternative auction parameters. Three simulation models are developed and analyzed. The first model (Model 1) uses historical price data from October 1995 through May 2006 to assess the performance risk of hypothetical thermal and hydro generating units. The second model (Model 2) uses historical price and operating data to assess performance risk of the …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- December 2006, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Sometimes Close Is Good Enough: The Value Of Nearby Environmental Amenities, Lucie Schmidt, Paul N. Courant

Economics: Faculty Publications

An extensive empirical literature exists, showing that variations in region-specific amenities can account for persistent differences in real wages across regions. However, this literature has considered only amenities in the same location as the household. This paper argues that environmental amenities at some distance from but accessible to urban areas may lead to negative compensating wage differentials. We use a general equilibrium framework and data from the 1995 Current Population Survey to calculate implicit amenity prices based on measures of distance to environmental amenities. Our results suggest that amenities outside the metropolitan area do generate compensating wage differentials, as workers …

Capital Account Liberalization: Reflections On Theory And Policy, Obadiah Mailafia

Economic and Financial Review

Developing countries as well as other member countries of the IMF have been encouraged to open up to foreign capital flows through the liberalization of their capital account transactions. Capital account liberalization is embedded in international standards and codes as best practice necessary for developing countries engaging in inter-governmental and non-governmental international relations. It also represents the systemic removal of administrative and legal controls on international capital transactions.

Implications Of Erm2 For Poland's Monetary Policy, Lucjan Orlowski, Krzysztof Rybinski

WCBT Faculty Publications

We propose an extension to the inflation targeting regime currently pursued by Poland. It incorporates the exchange rate stability constraints as imposed by the obligatory participation in the ERM2 that Poland needs to satisfy prior to adopting the euro. The modified policy is based on the forward-looking inflation targeting supplemented with the exchange rate stability objective. Its effective implementation depends on the determined long-term equilibrium exchange rate and the observed degree of exchange rate volatility. Both are empirically estimated by employing the Johansen cointegration tests and the threshold generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity model with the in-mean extension and generalized error distribution …

Asymptotic Theory For Local Time Density Estimation And Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression, Qiying Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We provide a new asymptotic theory for local time density estimation for a general class of functionals of integrated time series. This result provides a convenient basis for developing an asymptotic theory for nonparametric cointegrating regression and autoregression. Our treatment directly involves the density function of the processes under consideration and avoids Fourier integral representations and Markov process theory which have been used in earlier research on this type of problem. The approach provides results of wide applicability to important practical cases and involves rather simple derivations that should make the limit theory more accessible and useable in econometric applications. …

Current Account Balances, Financial Development And Institutions: Assaying The World “Saving Glut”, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We critically assess several of the key assertions underlying the global saving glut hypothesis. First, we investigate whether the behavior of the U.S. current account behavior is anomalous in light of previous industrial country experience. Second, we determine whether East Asian current account balances are predictable using standard macroeconomic variables, augmented with institutional factors. Finally, we investigate whether higher levels of financial development in key East Asian economies would result in smaller current account surpluses. We find that a one percentage-point increase in the budget balance would increase the current account balance by 0.10 to 0.49 percentage-points for industrialized countries, …

Wright State University Regional Economic Report, December 2006, Thomas L. Traynor

Economics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

A Soft Landing, Steady Growth, And Accelerating Farm Income, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Nick Hernandez, Bruce Johnson, Ken Lemke, Franz Schwarz, Scott Strain, Eric Thompson, Keith Turner

Economics Faculty Publications

After years of accelerating growth, the U.S. economy achieved a soft landing in 2006. The rate of economic growth remained positive but slowed sufficiently to reduce inflation pressures and the need for further interest rate increases. At the same time the economy remained strong enough to continue the current expansion which has been in place since late 2001. Such a soft landing is vital because it should allow the economy to continue to expand for years to come, but with moderate inflation.

Determinants And Consequences Of Workers’ Remittances, Carlos Ivan Vargas-Silva

Dissertations

In this dissertation we study the determinants and consequences of workers' remittances. It is important for developing countries to have a clear understanding of the motivations that migrants have to remit money home, in order to increase remittances inflows. It is also important to understand the impact of remittances in the receiving countries in order to develop policies that can maximize the benefits of remittances, while minimizing any possible detrimental effects. In this dissertation we concentrate on the relationship between remittances and macroeconomic variables in the receiving countries. To this end we use both individual and aggregate level data.

In …

Three Essays On International Transmission And Monetary Policy In Emerging Countries, Martha Cruz Zuniga

Dissertations

This dissertation investigates two aspects of foreign shocks that affect emerging countries: U.S. monetary shocks and workers' remittances. My attention inparticular centers on the macroeconomic impact of these foreign shocks. More specifically, in the first essay (Chapter 2) I analyze the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy to emerging economies distinguishing between a direct transmission process and an augmented international transmission. In the augmented transmission mechanism, U.S. shocks may impact leading countries in different regions, and those countries' reactions then affect smaller countries. In the second essay (Chapter 3) I investigate the effects of monetary policy on stock market returns …

Testing Tenure: Let The Market Decide, Michael Shermer

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

Tenure debates and disputes are often irresolvable because of the complex and multivariate nature of contractual relationships between faculty and administration, and the nuanced and varying beliefs about tenure held by the professoriate. The Ceci et al. study leads this commentator to suggest a simple solution - allow individual institutions to define the parameters of tenure according to their unique core values.

Housing Affordability For Households Of Color In Massachusetts, Michael E. Stone

Institute for Asian American Studies Publications

While housing is deeply significant for all of us, in our society it tends to pose particular challenges to many, if not most, people of color. For one thing, households of color continue to have considerably lower incomes, on average, than White-headed households. This means that households of color can, on average, afford less and therefore have fewer housing choices available, just for economic reasons alone. Yet we are not in a world where differential housing choices are determined only by ability to pay. Residential segregation by race persists and is not merely a consequence of unacceptable practices of the …

How The No Child Left Behind Act Punishes Schools With Disadvantaged Students, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

Manufacturers' Outsourcing To Employment Services, Matthew Dey, Susan N. Houseman, Anne E. Polivka

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We estimate the effects of manufacturers' use of employment services—comprised primarily of temporary help and professional employer organizations—on measured employment and labor productivity in manufacturing between 1989 and 2004. A major contribution of the paper is the construction of panel data on employment by occupation and industry from the Occupational Employment Statistics program. We use these data to document the dramatic rise of production and other manual occupations within the employment services sector and, in conjunction with information from the Contingent Worker Supplements, to estimate the number of employment services workers assigned to manufacturing over the period. Although measured employment …

Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Christian Gourieroux, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is well-known that maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects is inconsistent under fixed time series sample size (T) and large cross section sample size (N) asymptotics. The estimation bias is particularly relevant in practical applications when T is small and the autoregressive parameter is close to unity. The present paper proposes a general, computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on indirect inference (Gouriéroux et al., 1993), shows unbiasedness and analyzes efficiency. The method is implemented in a simple linear dynamic panel model, but has wider …

Economic Wellbeing And Where We Live: Accounting For Geographical Cost-Of-Living Differences In The Us, Leah Beth Curran, Harold L. Wohlman, Edward W. Hill, Kimberly Furdell

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

Regional cost-of-living differences affect the quality of life that individuals and families experience in different metropolitan areas. Yet, lack of metropolitan cost-of-living indexes has left analysts without the ability to make accurate cost-of-living adjustments to measures of economic wellbeing. This paper evaluates alternative approaches to cost-of-living measurement and then applies the ACCRA cost-of-living index to various US metropolitan area datasets, including median household income, the number of people living in poverty, and family eligibility for the Free and Reduced Price School Lunch and Head Start programes to illustrate some of the policy impacts of adjusting economic indicators of wellbeing for …

Slovakia's Surge: The New System's Impact On Fiscal Decentralization, Phillip J. Bryson, Gary C. Cornia

Faculty Publications

Slovakia's transition history long paralleled that of the Czech Republic, but the former adopted bold new reforms early in tis decade. This paper is a comparative treatment of fiscal decentralization since 1993 and more recent reforms of public administration, the two efforts representing the foundation of the New System. Czech experience is invoked simply to provide an appropriate benchmark for the evaluation of Slovakia's New System introduced in 2004, including the 19% "flat tax" and other striking measures in local public finance. The second focus of the paper is on the macro-economic impact of the New System. It is too …

Research Note: Assessing Household Service Losses With Joint Survival Probabilities, Victor Matheson, Robert Baade

Economics Department Working Papers

Traditional analyses of household service losses in personal injury and wrongful death litigation calculate the losses over the expected lifetime of the injured or deceased individual. In fact, the losses to the surviving family members are more accurately described by using joint survival probabilities of the injured or deceased person and their survivors, or a “joint life expectancy.” The use of joint probabilities will always serve to reduce expected household service losses and these reductions can be especially significant when the deceased is significantly younger than the surviving spouse or if the survivor has a relatively low remaining life expectancy.

School Responses To High-Stakes Testing, Mishuk Anwar Chowdhury

Economics Theses

This paper analyzes school's responses to high stakes testing. Using a grade level panel dataset from Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) for reading and math tests for 2003 through 2006, to find schools responses to failure. I find that there is a tendency for schools to shift resources from subjects that they pass to subjects that they fail. I classify schools' responses as either substitution responses or scale responses. A school has a substitution response if, when it fails to meet the state's required passing rate threshold for one subject for one cohort of students, it shifts resources …

Evidence Of Competition Between Law Schools, Naushaba Zaman

Economics Theses

The purpose of this paper is to measure how competition affects tuition rates of law schools. I hypothesize that the tuition rates will go up as concentration of law schools increase. To examine how tuition varies with competition, I need to measure market structure. A variety of measures are available, such as C4, C8, and HHI; all of which have some relationship to the degree of competitiveness in an industry. I primarily use HHI as the concentration measure in this paper. I make two models for my thesis. In my first model I use a statewide measure of competition, assuming …

Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new methodology is proposed to estimate theortical prices of financial contingent-claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. The present paper proposes instead a simulation-based method that improves the finite sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The methods are implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond pricing model, but have wider applicability. Monte Carlo …

Maximum Likelihood And Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models In Finance, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper overviews maximum likelihood and Gaussian methods of estimating continuous time models used in finance. Since the exact likelihood can be constructed only in special cases, much attention has been devoted to the development of methods designed to approximate the likelihood. These approaches range from crude Euler-type approximations and higher order stochastic Taylor series expansions to more complex polynomial-based expansions and infill approximations to the likelihood based on a continuous time data record. The methods are discussed, their properties are outlined and their relative finite sample performance compared in a simulation experiment with the nonlinear CIR diffusion model, which …

Essays On The Latin American Foreign Exchange Market, Isabel Ruiz

Dissertations

During the last decade, Latin American countries have moved towards becoming more open and financially integrated. At the same time, the region has appeared to adopt a "bipolar" position concerning exchange rate regimes. Most countries have moved towards more flexible exchange rates, while others have implemented hard pegs in the form of dollarization. This dissertation has two goals. First, to measure linkages and dynamics across Latin American foreign exchange markets. Second, to explore how exchange rate uncertainty impacts U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) into Latin America.

In order to study interactions among these markets, I focus on the level of …