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Behavioral Economics

2009

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Prediction Markets To Forecast Electricity Demand, Peter Cramton, Luciano De Castro Mar 2010

Prediction Markets To Forecast Electricity Demand, Peter Cramton, Luciano De Castro

Luciano I. de Castro

Forecasting electricity demand for future years is an essential step in resource planning. A common approach is for the system operator to predict future demand from the estimates of individual distribution companies. However, the predictions thus obtained may be of poor quality, since the reporting incentives are unclear. We propose a prediction market as a form of forecasting future demand for electricity. We describe how to implement a simple prediction market for continuous variables, using only contracts based on binary variables. We also discuss specific issues concerning the implementation of such a market.


For Both Love And Money: Viviana Zelizer's "The Purchase Of Intimacy", Martha M. Ertman Dec 2009

For Both Love And Money: Viviana Zelizer's "The Purchase Of Intimacy", Martha M. Ertman

Martha M. Ertman

Viviana Zelizer’s recent book, The Purchase of Intimacy (2005) presents an innovative theory of how social and legal actors negotiate rights and obligations when money changes hands in intimate relationships--a perspective that could change how we understand many things, from valuations of homemaking labor to the 9/11 Victim Compensation Fund. This essay describes Zelizer’s critique of the reductionist “Hostile Worlds” and “Nothing But” approaches to economic exchange in intimate relationships, then explains her more three-dimensional approach, “Connected Lives.” While Zelizer focuses on family law, the essay goes beyond that context, extending Zelizer’s approach to transfers of genetic material, and concluding …


The Psychology Of Eco-Consumption., Mario F. Teisl, Caroline L. Noblet, Jonathan Rubin Dec 2009

The Psychology Of Eco-Consumption., Mario F. Teisl, Caroline L. Noblet, Jonathan Rubin

Publications

Information programs to promote cellulosic biofuels may not achieve their objectives unless consumers can be induced to care about the information presented to them. The social psychology literature highlights two commonly used models to link psychological variables to environmentally related behaviors: the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Norm Activation Theory (NAT). Other studies have compared the strength of these models or have adapted these models by adding additional variables, but few have compared across the alternative variable combinations noted in the literature. That is, most studies have added one or two psychological variables to the NAT or TPB …


Competition-Based Environmental Policy: An Analysis Of Farmland Preservation In Maryland, John K. Horowitz, Lori Lynch, Andrew J. Stocking Nov 2009

Competition-Based Environmental Policy: An Analysis Of Farmland Preservation In Maryland, John K. Horowitz, Lori Lynch, Andrew J. Stocking

Andrew J Stocking

Policy makers have turned to competition-based voluntary-enrollment programs as a cost-effective way to achieve preferred land uses. This paper studies bidder behavior in an innovative auction-based program in which farmers compete to sell and retire the right to develop their land. We derive a reduced-form bidding model that includes private and common values. This model allows us to estimate the role of bidder competition, winner’s curse correction, and the underlying distribution of private values. We estimate that the auction enrolled as many as 3,000 acres (12%) more than a take-it-or-leave-it offer would have enrolled for the same budgetary cost.


Why Did Universities Precede Primary Schools? A Political Economy Model Of Educational Change, Fali Huang Nov 2009

Why Did Universities Precede Primary Schools? A Political Economy Model Of Educational Change, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Universities were first established in Europe around the twelfth century, while primary schools did not appear until the nineteenth. This paper accounts for this phenomenon using a political economy model of educational change on who are educated (the elite or the masses) and what is taught (general or specific/vocational education). A key assumption is that general education is more effective than specific education in enhancing one’s skills in a broad range of tasks, including political rent-seeking. Its findings suggest that specific education for the masses is compatible with the elite rule, while mass general education is not, which refines the …


Directed Altruism And Enforced Reciprocity In Social Networks, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do Nov 2009

Directed Altruism And Enforced Reciprocity In Social Networks, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do

Research Collection School Of Economics

We conducted online field experiments in large real-world social networks in order to decompose prosocial giving into three components: (1) baseline altruism toward randomly selected strangers, (2) directed altruism that favors friends over random strangers, and (3) giving motivated by the prospect of future interaction. Directed altruism increases giving to friends by 52% relative to random strangers, whereas future interaction effects increase giving by an additional 24% when giving is socially efficient. This finding suggests that future interaction affects giving through a repeated game mechanism where agents can be rewarded for granting efficiency-enhancing favors. We also find that subjects with …


The Knowledge Problem Of New Paternalism, Mario J. Rizzo, Douglas Glen Whitman Nov 2009

The Knowledge Problem Of New Paternalism, Mario J. Rizzo, Douglas Glen Whitman

BYU Law Review

No abstract provided.


Rationality And Humanity: A View From Feminist Economics, Julie A. Nelson Oct 2009

Rationality And Humanity: A View From Feminist Economics, Julie A. Nelson

Economics Faculty Publication Series

DOES RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY (RCT) HAVE SOMETHING IMPORTANT to contribute to the humanities? Usually the arguments for answering “yes” to this question go something like the following: The application of RCT has proved to be a powerful tool in economics and the social sciences, leading to clear and rigorous insights unattainable from less precise methods. Therefore, by also harnessing this power, the disciplines in the humanities could advance toward becoming more elegant, rational, and forceful in their explorations of human behavior. As an economist, I’d like to address this argument on its home ground. Has the use of RCT advanced …


Rationality And Humanity: A View From Feminist Economics, Julie A. Nelson Sep 2009

Rationality And Humanity: A View From Feminist Economics, Julie A. Nelson

Julie A. Nelson

DOES RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY (RCT) HAVE SOMETHING IMPORTANT to contribute to the humanities? Usually the arguments for answering “yes” to this question go something like the following: The application of RCT has proved to be a powerful tool in economics and the social sciences, leading to clear and rigorous insights unattainable from less precise methods. Therefore, by also harnessing this power, the disciplines in the humanities could advance toward becoming more elegant, rational, and forceful in their explorations of human behavior. As an economist, I’d like to address this argument on its home ground. Has the use of RCT advanced …


On Some Covariance Inequalities For Monotonic And Non-Monotonic Functions, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Wing Keung Wong Sep 2009

On Some Covariance Inequalities For Monotonic And Non-Monotonic Functions, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Wing Keung Wong

Martin Egozcue

No abstract provided.


Estimation Of Bidder Valuations In An Fcc Spectrum Auction, Jungwon Yeo Sep 2009

Estimation Of Bidder Valuations In An Fcc Spectrum Auction, Jungwon Yeo

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) uses auctions to allocate radio spectrum frequencies to wireless service providers. The innovation of the auction design is that it offers many heterogeneous licenses simultaneously in one ascending auction. This paper develops an empirical model and procedure to estimate bidder valuations. Given that the complex nature of the auction does not admit formal modeling in a general setting, I do not explore a particular model of equilibrium bidding. Instead, I propose two revealed preference inequalities which should hold in any reasonable model of these auctions. The .rst inequality requires that a bidder never bids on …


One Chance In A Million: Altruism And The Bone Marrow Registry, Ted Bergstrom, Rod Garratt, Damien Sheehan-Connor Aug 2009

One Chance In A Million: Altruism And The Bone Marrow Registry, Ted Bergstrom, Rod Garratt, Damien Sheehan-Connor

Ted C Bergstrom

Transplants of donated stem cells save the lives of many patients with blood diseases. Donation is somewhat painful, butrarely has lasting adverse effects. Patients can accept transplants only from donors with compatible immune systems. Those lacking a sibling match must seek donations from the population at large. The probability that two persons of the same race are compatible is less than 1/10,000. Health authorities maintain a registry of several million genetically-tested potential donors who have agreed to donate if asked. We study the peculiar structure of voluntary public good provision represented by the registry, and compare the marginal benefits and …


A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Aug 2009

A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

following the Global financial Crisis there were economic collapses in all the world. Sudan officials claimed that the country was immune from that epidemic. Such declaration were truly weird as it has been deeply affected from the first instant. That article presented many questions about the economic and social conditions and the eminent southern Sudan, Darfur crises.


Teaching Ecological And Feminist Economics In The Principles Course, Julie A. Nelson, Neva Goodwin Jul 2009

Teaching Ecological And Feminist Economics In The Principles Course, Julie A. Nelson, Neva Goodwin

Economics Faculty Publication Series

It can be difficult to incorporate ecological and feminist concerns into introductory courses, when one is also obliged to teach neoclassical analysis. In this essay we briefly describe how one might extend existing “multi-paradigmatic” approaches to feminist and ecological concerns, and then present an new alternative approach that may be more suitable for some students. This “broader questions and bigger toolbox” approach can be applied in both microeconomics and macroeconomics introductory classrooms.


Searching For A New Brand: Reimagining A More Diverse Orlando, Kevin Archer, Kris Bezdecny Jul 2009

Searching For A New Brand: Reimagining A More Diverse Orlando, Kevin Archer, Kris Bezdecny

All Faculty Scholarship for the School of Graduate Studies and Research

No abstract provided.


There Should Be Little Or No Liquidity Discounts For Controlling Interests In Closely Held Businesses, Michael Sack Elmaleh Jul 2009

There Should Be Little Or No Liquidity Discounts For Controlling Interests In Closely Held Businesses, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

The application of liquidity discounts to the appraised values of controlling interests in closely held businesses reflects a failure of the valuation community to fully appreciate the fact that these equity interests belong to a fundamentally different investment class than publicly traded securities. Investors in publicly traded securities have dramatically different expectations about the benefits and sacrifices of such investments, compared to the expectations of benefits and sacrifices of investors in closely held companies. Investors in publicly traded securities expect their minority interest investments to be highly liquid, yield free cash flow, and require no participation in the management of …


Financial Regulation And Securitization: Evidence From Subprime Mortgage Loans, Benjamin J. Keys, Tanmoy K. Mukherjee, Amit Seru, Vikrant Vig Jul 2009

Financial Regulation And Securitization: Evidence From Subprime Mortgage Loans, Benjamin J. Keys, Tanmoy K. Mukherjee, Amit Seru, Vikrant Vig

Benjamin J. Keys

We examine the consequences of existing regulations on the quality of mortgage loans originations in the originate to distribute (OTD) market. The information asymmetries in the OTD market can lead to moral hazard problems on the part of lenders. We find, using a plausibly exogenous source of variation in the ease of securitization, that the quality of loan originations varies inversely with the amount of regulation: more regulated lenders originate loans of worse quality. We interpret this result as possible evidence that the fragility of lightly regulated originators' capital structure can mitigate moral hazard. In addition, we find that incentives …


Justice And Fairness In The Dictator Game, Karl Schurter, Bart J. Wilson Jul 2009

Justice And Fairness In The Dictator Game, Karl Schurter, Bart J. Wilson

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

This article uses a laboratory experiment to examine the question of whether justice and fairness are different motivational forces in the dictator game. "Justice" and "fairness" are often used interchangeably because their meanings and usages are so closely linked, despite their distinct connotations. Using four different treatments, our experimental design investigates the subtle differences between the two social concepts to explicate generosity in the dictator game. The results indicate that justice, not fairness, legitimizes property rights in the dictator game.


Purchasing Power: An Exploration Of Predictors Of Political Participation And Political Consumerism, Sara Resnick Jul 2009

Purchasing Power: An Exploration Of Predictors Of Political Participation And Political Consumerism, Sara Resnick

Sociology & Criminal Justice Theses & Dissertations

Democracy depends on the active participation of at least some citizens. Many researchers argue that the number of people who participate in civic and political life has declined since the 1970's; however, others argue that new methods of participation are not being considered. New ways of thinking about citizenship, more individualized ways of participating in politics, and the intersection of political expression and the free market have created ways for individuals to engage in political and civic life that are not measured by existing conceptualizations of political participation. Political consumerism is one way to conceptualize at least some of the …


Teaching Ecological And Feminist Economics In The Principles Course, Julie A. Nelson Jun 2009

Teaching Ecological And Feminist Economics In The Principles Course, Julie A. Nelson

Julie A. Nelson

It can be difficult to incorporate ecological and feminist concerns into introductory courses, when one is also obliged to teach neoclassical analysis. In this essay we briefly describe how one might extend existing “multi-paradigmatic” approaches to feminist and ecological concerns, and then present an new alternative approach that may be more suitable for some students. This “broader questions and bigger toolbox” approach can be applied in both microeconomics and macroeconomics introductory classrooms.


The Janjaweed And The Armed Movements Of Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Jun 2009

The Janjaweed And The Armed Movements Of Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The emergence of the Janjaweed as an armed force working with the government to suppress rebellions in Darfur region outraged the international community. They were marked by brutality, destruction, burning, killings and mass rapes. They were also described as Arabs. However, that was not the whole picture, no one observed the living conditions of the Arabs or how were they victims also as the other inhabitants of Darfur. No one also observed that they were used by the Ingaz government to execute the dirty work and bear the consequences. The Arab tribes however, also had other thoughts as they realized …


For Both Love And Money: Viviana Zelizer's "The Purchase Of Intimacy", Martha M. Ertman Jun 2009

For Both Love And Money: Viviana Zelizer's "The Purchase Of Intimacy", Martha M. Ertman

Martha M. Ertman

Viviana Zelizer’s recent book, The Purchase of Intimacy (2005) presents an innovative theory of how social and legal actors negotiate rights and obligations when money changes hands in intimate relationships--a perspective that could change how we understand many things, from valuations of homemaking labor to the 9/11 Victim Compensation Fund. This essay describes Zelizer’s critique of the reductionist “Hostile Worlds” and “Nothing But” approaches to economic exchange in intimate relationships, then explains her more three-dimensional approach, “Connected Lives.” While Zelizer focuses on family law, the essay goes beyond that context, extending Zelizer’s approach to transfers of genetic material, and concluding …


Incorporating Fairness Motives Into The Impulse Balance Equilibrium And Quantal Response Equilibrium Concepts: An Application To 2x2 Games, Alessandro Tavoni Jun 2009

Incorporating Fairness Motives Into The Impulse Balance Equilibrium And Quantal Response Equilibrium Concepts: An Application To 2x2 Games, Alessandro Tavoni

Alessandro Tavoni

Substantial evidence has accumulated in recent empirical works on the limited ability of the Nash equilibrium to rationalize observed behavior in many classes of games played by experimental subjects. This realization has led to several attempts aimed at finding tractable equilibrium concepts which perform better empirically; one such example is the impulse balance equilibrium (Selten, Chmura, 2008), which introduces a psychological reference point to which players compare the available payoff allocations. This paper is concerned with advancing two new, empirically sound, concepts: equity-driven impulse balance equilibrium (EIBE) and equity-driven quantal response equilibrium (EQRE): both introduce a distributive reference point to …


Ethics, Evidence And International Debt, Julie A. Nelson Jun 2009

Ethics, Evidence And International Debt, Julie A. Nelson

Economics Faculty Publication Series

The assumption that contracts are largely impersonal, rational, voluntary agreements drawn up between self-interested individual agents is a convenient fiction, necessary for analysis using conventional economic methods. Papers prepared for a recent conference on ethics and international debt were shaped by just such an assumption. The adequacy of this approach is, however, challenged by evidence about who is affected by international debt, how contracts are actually made and followed, the behavior of actors in financial markets, and the motivations of scholars themselves. This essay uses insights from feminist and relational scholarship from several disciplines to analyze the reasons for this …


Ethics, Evidence And International Debt, Julie Nelson Jun 2009

Ethics, Evidence And International Debt, Julie Nelson

Julie A. Nelson

The assumption that contracts are largely impersonal, rational, voluntary agreements drawn up between self-interested individual agents is a convenient fiction, necessary for analysis using conventional economic methods. Papers prepared for a recent conference on ethics and international debt were shaped by just such an assumption. The adequacy of this approach is, however, challenged by evidence about who is affected by international debt, how contracts are actually made and followed, the behavior of actors in financial markets, and the motivations of scholars themselves. This essay uses insights from feminist and relational scholarship from several disciplines to analyze the reasons for this …


Auction Design And Tacit Collusion In Fcc Spectrum Auctions, Patrick Bajari, Jungwon Yeo Jun 2009

Auction Design And Tacit Collusion In Fcc Spectrum Auctions, Patrick Bajari, Jungwon Yeo

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has used auctions to award spectrum since 1994. During this time period, the FCC has experimented with a variety of auctions rules including click box bidding and anonymous bidding. These rule changes make the actions of bidders less visible during the auction and also limit the set of bids that can be submitted during a particular round. Economic theory suggests that tacit collusion may be more difficult as a result. We examine this proposition using data from four auctions: the PCS-C Block, the PCS-C&F Block Reauction, the Advanced Wireless Service auction and the 700 MHz …


What Do We Expect From Our Friends?, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya S. Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do Jun 2009

What Do We Expect From Our Friends?, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya S. Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do

Research Collection School Of Economics

We conduct a field experiment in a large real-world social network to examine how subjects expect to be treated by their friends and by strangers who make allocation decisions in modified dictator games. Although recipients’ beliefs accurately account for the extent to which friends will choose more generous allocations than strangers (i.e., directed altruism), recipients are not able to anticipate individual differences in the baseline altruism of allocators (measured by giving to an unnamed recipient, which is predictive of generosity toward named recipients). Recipients who are direct friends with the allocator, or even recipients with many common friends, are no …


Assessing The Viability Of Investment In Sudan (1979-2008), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed May 2009

Assessing The Viability Of Investment In Sudan (1979-2008), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Most developing and underdeveloped countries beside Sudan suffer from low levels of income in addition to the low savings that are result from the lack of public savings channels. Hence, investments depend on the individuals' abilities on savings where they are major motivating vehicle for economic activity due to its direct correlation with capital accumulation process that increases the productive capacity for the national economy and help to create job opportunities and achieving economic development. Subsequently, the importance of the investment comes from the effective role that can be practiced on the national product. Currently, Sudan endures severe economic crisis …


Charitable Memberships, Volunteering, And Discounts: Evidence From A Large-Scale Online Field Experiment, Andreas Lange, Andrew J. Stocking May 2009

Charitable Memberships, Volunteering, And Discounts: Evidence From A Large-Scale Online Field Experiment, Andreas Lange, Andrew J. Stocking

Andrew J Stocking

Despite the increasing use by charities, significant uncertainty exists about optimal online fundraising mechanisms, especially when large donor pools show substantial heterogeneities. We use an online natural field experiment with over 700,000 subjects to test theory on price discounts and show large differences in donation behavior between donors who have previously given money and/or volunteered. For example, framing the charity’s membership price as a discount increases response rates and decreases conditional contributions from former volunteers, but not from past money donors. Our study thereby demonstrates the importance of conditioning fundraising strategies on the specifics of past donation dimensions.


Structural Attributes Associated With The Prevalence Of Hate Groups: A State-Level Analysis, Paula Jean Kutneski May 2009

Structural Attributes Associated With The Prevalence Of Hate Groups: A State-Level Analysis, Paula Jean Kutneski

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

With the number of hate groups increasing 54 percent since 2000, it is important to understand what is triggering these groups to form in geographical areas. The current study examined whether structural characteristics predicted the number of hate groups within a state. Using hate group listings from the Southern Poverty Law Center's Intelligence Report and U. S. Census data from 2000, this study explored a state's racial and ethnic heterogeneity, economic disadvantage, and regional location to explain hate group existence within that state. Employing correlations, Chi-Square analyses, multiple and logistic regressions, and a conjunctive analysis, this study found that a …