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The Survival Probability Of Beneficial De Novo Mutations In Budding Viruses, With An Emphasis On Influenza A Viral Dynamics, Jennifer Ns Reid
The Survival Probability Of Beneficial De Novo Mutations In Budding Viruses, With An Emphasis On Influenza A Viral Dynamics, Jennifer Ns Reid
Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository
A deterministic model is developed of the within-host dynamics of a budding virus, and coupled with a detailed life-history model using a branching process approach to follow the fate of de novo beneficial mutations affecting five life-history traits: clearance, attachment, eclipse, budding, and cell death. Although the model can be generalized for any given budding virus, our work was done with a major emphasis on the early stages of infection with influenza A virus in human populations. The branching process was then interleaved with a stochastic process describing the disease transmission of this virus. These techniques allowed us to predict …
Thinking Poker Through Game Theory, Damian Palafox
Thinking Poker Through Game Theory, Damian Palafox
Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations
Poker is a complex game to analyze. In this project we will use the mathematics of game theory to solve some simplified variations of the game. Probability is the building block behind game theory. We must understand a few concepts from probability such as distributions, expected value, variance, and enumeration methods to aid us in studying game theory. We will solve and analyze games through game theory by using different decision methods, decision trees, and the process of domination and simplification. Poker models, with and without cards, will be provided to illustrate optimal strategies. Extensions to those models will be …
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
Theses and Dissertations
Using open source data, this research formulates and constructs a suite of statistical models that predict future transitions into and out of violent conflict and forecasts the regional and global incidences of violent conflict over a ten-year time horizon. A total of thirty predictor variables are tested and evaluated for inclusion in twelve conditional logistic regression models, which calculate the probability that a nation will transition from its current conflict state, either In Conflict or Not in Conflict, to a new state in the following year. These probabilities are then used to construct a series of nation-specific Markov chain models …