Macroeconomics Commons^™

Employed Unemployed? On Shadow Employment In Transition, Joanna Tyrowicz, Stanisław Cichocki

Joanna Tyrowicz

Unregistered employment poses two types of challenges to the researchers: (i) reliably evaluating the wage dierential between formally and informally employed and (ii) accounting for the push and pull factors in general and the eects of business cycle in particular. We address the former with the use of propensity score matching and analyse the evolution of the estimated average compensations and the dierentials with reference to GDP and unemployment fluctuations. Using 13 years of quarterly labour force survey data from Poland on de iure unemployed but de facto employed individuals we nd, that in-the-shadow compensations tend to be higher and …

The Effects Of Labour Market Performance On Financial System Stability, Tomasz Daras, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

Crisis may spread through economy via the propagating mechanisms of the labour market - households becoming delinquent due to initial unemployment shock may be unable to continue servicing obligations versus the financial system. With large volume debts - e.g. mortgages - such defaults pose a threat to financial system stability. In this paper we use the Polish household budgets survey to simulate the impact of changes in the labour market status of household members on the ability of the household to service its mortgage payments. The simulation results are subsequently aggregated to facilitate macro-level interpretation of the findings. We simulate …

Shadow Employment In Post-Transition - A Matter Of Choice Or No Choice?, Stanislaw Cichocki, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

According to a dualistic view, shadow employment may follow from two main labour market failures: (i) official market labour taxation distortions make it ineffective for some agents to engage in registered employment due to a tax wedge; or (ii) for some workers regular employment may be unattainable do to some high access costs or demand constraints, which results in seeking earning opportunities beyond the boundaries of the official labour market. Whereas in the first case revenues from unofficial employment should be higher than the corresponding official ones (tax evasion hypothesis), in the alternative explanation labour market tightness seems to be …

Do We Really Need To Start From Scratch?, Michal Gradzewicz, Krzysztof Makarski, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

This paper presents views and believes of the authors on the relevance of the current economic theory for the understanding of the complex world we live in. Has the crisis indeed demonstrated that as profession we are misled by the beauty of the mathematical models and the only useful, workable solutions at hand were provided in early 1930s? The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the current state-of-the-art literature from the perspective of its usefulness in the context of economic crises. We argue that although we might be unable to answer many questions or to “predict” …

Intra-Provincial Inequalities And Economic Growth In China, Joanna Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna Tyrowicz, Jacek Kochanowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

This paper approaches the problem of inequalities in China. It is specifically focused on analyzing the effects of intra-provincial disparities on the development of the 28 mainland provinces in China. Intra-provincial inequalities, as measured by Theil index, seem positively related to growth, albeit the results are only convincing for the coastal provinces. A case by case analysis, however, suggests highly diversified patterns, including linear or an inverted u-shape for fastest growing coastal provinces and virtually no relationship for the majority of regions. The results corroborate some earlier raised questions about actual policy-making standards in China.

What Happened To The Middle Class In The New Market Economies? The Case Of Croatia And Poland, Joanna Tyrowicz, Iva Tomić

Joanna Tyrowicz

Transition countries are believed to have undergone signifi cant social and economic structural changes. Indeed, the early transition resulted in the modifi cation of ownership structure and recognized processes of labor reallocation as well as in rapid educational booms in many Central and Eastern European countries. In this paper we shed some light on the changes regarding the size and composition of the middle class in two transition countries, Croatia and Poland, in the period 1995-2008. In general, the size of the middle class – as defi ned by individuals with wages around the median – decreased in Poland roughly …

Saving Less When There Is More? Foreign Debt And Domestic Savings In Developing Countries, Joanna Tyrowicz, Luke Okafor Emeka

Joanna Tyrowicz

Although literature has given considerable attention to the effects of foreign debt on the growth, we still know little about its effects on the internal potential for capital formation. Literature suggests a number of channels through which availability of foreign financing could affect domestic savings. We test empirically this relationship using data for Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean over 1975-2004. Controlling for endogeneity, we find that foreign debt adversely influences domestic savings especially in the long run. The results are not susceptible to the choice of countries, although few outliers should be noted.

Riding On The Wave? Middle Class In Transition, Joanna Tyrowicz, Joanna Nestorowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

In this paper we inquire into how structural social changes associated with economic transition affected the relative position of the so called ‘traditional’ and ‘new’ middle classes. We use Polish quarterly labor force surveys over the period 1995-2007 and analyze the distribution of self-reported wages and educational attainment across social groups. In the analysis we account for differences observed in the metropolies (usually benefiting immensely from the economic changes) and non-metropolitan areas (where most of the negative consequences are felt).

We find that although transition has contributed to greater inequalities both in terms of earned income and education, traditional middle …

Some Remarks On The Effects Of Active Labour Market Policies In Post-Transition, Joanna Tyrowicz, Piotr Wojcik

Joanna Tyrowicz

Social cohesion is the principal goal behind active labour market policies (ALMPs), including those financed at supra-national level, like the European Social Fund. In this paper we use NUTS4 level data on the local labour market dynamics in an attempt to verify direct and indirect effects of ALMPs. We use data for 2000-2007 for Poland, while this period comprised both stark increases and reductions in the unemployment rates. Over this time also the financing of ALMPs has been increased considerably, transforming both to higher intensity of ALMPs (wider coverage) and higher extensiveness of these activities (increase in per treatment cost). …

How Much Es In Csr, Anna Sienicka, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

This paper approaches the problem of CSR in the context of social economy development in New Member States at the example of Poland. We explore the opportunities for companies to engage into socially beneficial undertakings with direct rather than indirect economic advantages. Namely, we demonstrate to what extent currently existing legal regulations enable bridging the world of civil society institutions with corporate world.

We suggest that even without specialized instruments adopted and implemented by CEECs governments, innova- tive inclusion solutions developed by civil society organizations may actually provide suficient incentives for companies in new member states to develop CSR. We …

Exogenous Coalition Formation In The E-Marketplace Based On Geographical Proximity, Tomasz Michalak, Joanna Tyrowicz, Peter Mcburney, Michael Wooldridge

Joanna Tyrowicz

This paper considers a model for exogenous coalition formation in e-marketplaces. Using its informational advantage, an e-retailer creates coalitions of customers based on geographical proximity. Most of the literature regards this process as endogenous: a coalition leader among the buyers bundles eventual purchases together in order to obtain a better bargaining position. In contrast – and in response to what is typically observed in business practice – we analyse a situation in which an existing e-retailer exogenously forms customers’ coalitions. Results of this study are highly encouraging. Namely, we demonstrate that even under highly imperfect warehouse management schemes leading to …

Unemployment Convergence In Transition, Joanna Tyrowicz, Piotr Wojcik

Joanna Tyrowicz

In this paper an attempt is made to inquire the dynamics of regional unemployment rates in transition economies. We use policy relevant NUTS4 unemployment rates for transition economies characterised by both relatively intense (Poland, Slovaka) and relatively mild labour market hardships (Czech Republic). We apply diverse analytical techniques to seek traces of convergence, including beta- and sigma-convergence as well as time-series approach.

Transition economies typically experienced rapid growth of the unemployment rates due to profound restructuring. Naturally, these processes affected local labour markets asymmetrically, since regions were diversified with respect to industry composition and economic outlooks. Results in each of …

Foreign Debt And Domestic Savings In Developing Countries, Luke Okafor, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

This paper approaches the question of potential causality between foreign debt and domestic savings in the context of developing countries. Literature provides evidence in as far as foreign debt and development is concerned, but little attention was given so far to internal potential for capital formation. We provide a theoretical framework and test its relevance using 1975-2004 data for two groups of countries: sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America with the Caribbean. With the use of instrumental variables we find negative impact of foreign debt on domestic savings especially in the long run. The results are not susceptible to the choice …

Is The Impact Really That High? The Effect Of Fdi In Transition, Jan Hagemejer, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

Literature is not clear on the effect of FDI on the economic performance in hosting countries. The analysed eects include productivity, propensity to export, access to financial markets, etc. Although foreign subsidiaries usually perform better than the average of the hosting economies, sometimes the selection eect is found to be considerable. The analysed eects In this paper we use a unique dataset based on accounting annual reports to the statistical authorities by all medium and large Polish enterprises over a period 1997-2006. We apply a propensity score matching technique to disentangle the effect of self-selection and FDI entry (treatment). We …

When Eastern Labour Markets Enter Western Europe - Ceecs Labour Market Institutions Upon Euro Zone Accession, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

This paper reviews the literature on the labour market institutions in European Union Member States in the context of monetary integration. Traditionally, labour markets are a key concept in the optimal currency area theory, playing the role of the only accommodation mechanism of asymmetric shocks after the monetary unification. There are several theoretical frameworks linking the institutional design of the labour market to the potential effectiveness of monetary policy in the context of currency areas. Many empirical studies addressed these issues too, yielding important policy implications for labour market reforms in the process of monetary unification. However, there seem to …

Nonlinear Stochastic Convergence Analysis Of Regional Unemployment Rates In Poland, Joanna Tyrowicz, Piotr Wojcik

Joanna Tyrowicz

This paper analyzes convergence of unemployment rates in Poland at NUTS4 level by testing nonlinear convergence, applying the modified KSS-CHLL for each pair of territorial units. The results suggest that actually the convergence is a rare phenomenon and occurs only in 1916 cases out of potential over 70 000 combinations. This paper inquires what systematic reasons contribute to this phenomenon.

There are some circumstances under which unemployment convergence should be more awaited than in the others. These include sharing a higher level territorial authority, experiencing similar labour market hardship or sharing the same structural characteristics. For each of these three …

Blame No One? Investment Decisions Of The Polish Stock-Listed Companies, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

It is often raised that enterprises in transition countries are cursed with credit constraints and insufficient capital. Regardless of whether this belief holds for the whole of the economy, the Agency Theory provides a useful both theoretical and empirical framework helping to verify the efficiency of investment decisions in case of companies for which 'objective' future cash-flow valuation is available. The assertion of managerial discretion has been verified empirically for many different countries with the analytical background provided by user cost of capital and Tobin's Q theories. This paper’s contribution is the analysis of the Polish stock-listed companies behavior with …

Labour Market Racial Discrimination In South Africa Revisited, Joanna Tyrowicz, Maciej Szelewicki

Joanna Tyrowicz

Discrimination is a significant issue in labour market economics across developed as well as developing countries. In this paper we inquire the actual size of wage discrimination in the Republic of Soutn Africa, accounting for large differences in endowments. We apply the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition as well as propensity score matching to adequately determine the size of the pay gap. Although the size of the absolute racial pay gap is enormous, amounting for more than 500%, the actual estimated effect non-attributable to other factors ranges between 45%-55%. This estimator however assumes homogenous discrimination across the wage distribution, while data suggest that …

(In)Efficiency Of Matching - The Case Of A Post-Transition Economy, Joanna Tyrowicz, Tomasz Jeruzalski

Joanna Tyrowicz

This paper approaches the question of efficiency in job placement using regional data for Polish regions (policy relevant NUTS 4 level) over the time span of 2000-2008. Using a unique data set we estimate the matching function using stochastic frontier as well as difference-in-difference estimators. We use also managed to combine this unique data set with another unique source of data on the ALMPs

coverage, unemployment structure across time and regions as well as the individual capacity of local labour offices. We use these data to explain the exceptional variation in estimated efficiency scores.

Our findings suggest that matching abilities …

Investment Credit Availability - Bank Enterprise Relations In Poland, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

The complaints about insufficient private investment are frequent in Poland. Equally often do we hear the criticism of the monetary policy pointing to excessively high interest rates. This paper estimates the speed of upward adjustment of loan rates relative to downward adjustment, accounting for dierent market segments and products. The empirical results show that for the investment credit upward adjustment is fast, but downward adjustment essentially does not occur. Consumer credit products demonstrate positive values for the speed of both adjustments although still upward changes occur faster than downwards ones. These ndings suggest that banks may tend to discriminate entrepreneurs …

Konwergencja Bezrobocia W Polsce W Latach 1999-2006, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

W artykule analizie poddana została dynamika stóp bezrobocia na poziomie powiatów w Polsce w latach 1999-2006. Wykorzystano miesięczne dane rejestrowe. Celem badania jest zweryfikowanie, do jakiego stopnia zachodzą procesy konwergencji regionalnych stóp bezrobocia. Zbadana została zarówno konwergencja typu beta, czyli zależność między dynamiką stopy bezrobocia a jej poziomem wyjściowym, jak i konwergencja typu sigma polegająca na analizie dyspersji rozkładu i jej zmian w czasie. Zastosowane zostały również metody pozwalające zbadać dynamikę pełnego rozkładu analizowanej zmiennej – macierze przejścia oraz nieparametryczna metoda estymacji jądrowej. Macierze przejścia pozwalają określić prawdopodobieństwo z jakim w powiatach stopa bezrobocia utrzyma się na stałym poziomie, wzrośnie …

Optimality And Synchronicity - Where Do We Stand? Oca Theory And Its Empirical Application For Emu, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

Should Poland join EMU? The answer to this question has already been determined by both economists and politicians - by joining EU Poland has agreed to eventually join EMU, which barely any serious economists find to be harmful to our economy. However, the moment of joining the currency union has not been determined and its choice is largely left to the decision of Polish policy makers. Obviously, there are some costs to entering the currency union, as well as some benefits. However, since both the process of accessing and the very participation in the EMU are dynamic in nature, the …

Podmioty Ekonomii Społecznej A Perspektywy Rozwojowe Polski 2007-2013, Joanna Tyrowicz

Joanna Tyrowicz

No abstract provided.

On Measuring The Efficiency Of The Social Security System Reforms. The Case Of Poland, Joanna Tyrowicz, Piotr Mularczyk

Joanna Tyrowicz

As other European countries, transition economies face the reform of the social security system. As one of the first, Poland has introduced a pension reform in 1999, which changed a standard pay-as-you-go system into a one constructed of three pillars and based on addressed contributions. The five years from the reform allow to take a first look at the reform, both in terms of assessing the legal implementation as well as the realization of main assumptions and aims. In this paper we consider the effectiveness of the reform. We find that in many aspects this reform should not be considered …