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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Irving Fisher, Debt Deflation And Crises, Robert J. Shiller
Irving Fisher, Debt Deflation And Crises, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
It is the 100th anniversary of Irving Fisher’s 1911 book The Purchasing Power of Money . But, more important than that, it is a good time, during the current financial turmoil, to reconsider some of his theories again, in light of current events. And I think that some of his theories about variations in the purchasing power of money are very important today, have been underappreciated, and are worthy of considering anew.
Using Monte Carlo Simulations To Establish A New House Price Stress Test, James R. Follain, Seth H. Giertz
Using Monte Carlo Simulations To Establish A New House Price Stress Test, James R. Follain, Seth H. Giertz
Department of Economics: Faculty Publications
The focus of this paper is on the house price stress test (termed ALMO) that was designed to assess the fiscal strength of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and, if necessary, to trigger remedial action in order to avert a crisis. We assess whether the ALMO stress test was an adequate representation of an extremely weak housing market, given the best available information leading up to the Great Recession. A Monte Carlo simulation model is developed to estimate the severity of low probability events (i.e., severe house price declines). We illustrate the complexity and subjective nature of the process used …
Building A World-Class System In Ireland’S Financial Crisis, Ellen Hazelkorn
Building A World-Class System In Ireland’S Financial Crisis, Ellen Hazelkorn
Articles
Irish higher education faces particular difficulties given the severity of its economic crisis. Like other countries, it is engaged in significant system restructuring coupled with managed policy direction. Where Ireland does differ is in its emphasis on a 'whole of country strategy' and commitment that teaching and research go hand-in-hand. This paper looks at the fortunes and mis-fortunes of Irish higher education.
Recent Developments In European Bank Competition, Juliana Yu Sun
Recent Developments In European Bank Competition, Juliana Yu Sun
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper investigates the degree of bank competition in the euro area, the U.S. and U.K. before and after the recent financial crisis, and revisits the issue whether the introduction of EMU and the euro have had any impact on bank competition. The results suggest that the level of bank competition converged across euro area countries in the wake of the EMU. The recent global financial crisis led to a fall in competition in several countries and especially where large credit and housing booms had preceded the crisis...
Is A Beautiful System Dying? A Possible Smithian Take On The Financial Crisis And Its Aftermath, Maria Pia Paganelli
Is A Beautiful System Dying? A Possible Smithian Take On The Financial Crisis And Its Aftermath, Maria Pia Paganelli
Economics Faculty Research
Adam Smith is not an optimistic describer of a providential order moved by an always-successful invisible hand. I present some of the more pessimistic analysis of Smith, which, unfortunately, seems to be most appropriate to describe and analyze our current affairs. This reading of Smith may provide an explanation for the events started in the fall of 2008.
The ‘beautiful system of natural liberty’ that Smith describes is a system that may be achieved only under rare circumstances. Smith recognizes systematic biases in human behaviours, ranging from overestimation of probability of success to almost blind admiration for the rich. He …
In The Aftermath Of The Financial Crisis Of 2008: What Have We Learned?, Luisa Blanco, Michael Crouch
In The Aftermath Of The Financial Crisis Of 2008: What Have We Learned?, Luisa Blanco, Michael Crouch
School of Public Policy Working Papers
In the aftermath of the financial crisis and economic recession of 2008, it is important to reflect not only on its causes, but also on specific policies that can help countries to move towards sustained economic growth. This publication provides a compendium of lectures that intend to do this. The focus of the discussion is around the U.S. (first two chapters) and Latin America (last chapter), which enhances our understanding of the forces at play and the necessary policies that need to be implemented in different regions of the world. Dr. Lee Ohanian points to the strange differences between the …
A Model For The Intervention Of A Financial Crisis, J. Barrow
A Model For The Intervention Of A Financial Crisis, J. Barrow
Faculty and Research Publications
This paper builds a model for intervention and/or mitigation of a financial crisis by first identifying those conditions precedent to a systemic based financial crisis, and then outlying a process to integrate firm specific and systematic risk into a comprehensive strategic model. A simple application of the model was able to identify significant outliers. For example, using 2006 to 2010 data, Capital One Financial Corporation was identified for intervention from as early as 2006. This corporation received $3.56 billion of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act Federal bailout funds.