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Exit Timing Decisions Under Land Speculation And Resource Scarcity In Agriculture, Ram Ranjan, Sorada Tapsuwan
Exit Timing Decisions Under Land Speculation And Resource Scarcity In Agriculture, Ram Ranjan, Sorada Tapsuwan
Ram Ranjan
This paper models the impact of water scarcity in agriculture on the timing of exit decisions for farmers faced with the prospect of declining profitability in agriculture but increasing benefits from land rezoning in the future. The prospects of land rezoning are modeled as a Poisson process. The analysis highlights the role of speculative rewards in making farmers resilient to declining profitability in agriculture and also identifies the circumstances under which water prices may become an ineffective policy tool for allocating water. An empirical application is performed for the case of a drought prone region in Western Australia. Results indicate …