Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Identification By Disaggregation, Matthew J. Cushing, Mary G. Mcgarvey

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

Standard economic theory predicts that the actions of individual participants in competitive markets have negligible effects on market-determined aggregates. Applied researchers, and even some econometric textbooks, incorrectly infer from this that market prices can be modeled as econometrically exogenous with respect to the quantity demanded of an individual consumer. This faulty inference has even led some researchers (for example, Robert Engle, 1978; Nicholas Kiefer, 1984; Roger Waud, 1974) to employ an estimation strategy we call identification by disaggregation (IBD). This procedure attempts to circumvent the simultaneity problem in a macro regression by disaggregating the dependent variable and estimating the relationship …

The Case For Making Economic Forecasts: St. Offset And Annual Projections, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

Murray Weidenbaum states that the public should not expect pinpoint accuracy in economic forecasting. But prevailing forecasts can be helpful in indicating the general direction and trends for the year ahead.

Justice For The Poor: The Political Problem Of Poverties, Jasper Lesage

Pro Rege

No abstract provided.

Investigating The Economic Impact Of Increasing Agricultural Production In A Peri-Urban Environment, Ronald L. Marbeiter

Masters Theses

The intention of this study is to investigate the economic impact of increasing agricultural production in a peri-urban environment. The Rural Development Area Program (RDAP) in Swaziland is aimed at increasing rural income through improved agricultural practices. The mathematical technique of linear programming is applied to two distinct farmer categories, i.e., cattle owners and non-cattle owners, in order to ascertain information pertaining to the inability of expanding crop production in an area which offers higher renumeration in the urban sector.

Both farm categories have ample labor to expand agricultural production, but the non-cattle owners have limited access to land and …

The Evolution Of Financial Institutions And The Performance Of The Economy, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Originally presented at the Annual Meeting of the Association for Evolutionary Economics, New York, December 27-30, 1985. Printed in the Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. XX, No. 2, June, 1986.

Reasons For And Implications Of Declining Farmland Prices, Larry Janssen

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

The Role Of The Council Of Economic Advisers: Theory And Reality, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

The function of the Council of Economic Advisers is to advise the President on economic policy with as much impartiality as possible. The CEA chairman is expected to help the public understand and in turn support the President's economic program.

Economic Prospects For 1986, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

The economic forecast for 1986 is expected to show a much more modest growth than that of 1984 and 1985, mostly due to increases in imports, causing a reduction in domestic production.

Auction Theory, Paul R. Milgrom

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper discusses two central questions: Why do auction institutions continue to be so popular after thousands of years? and What accounts for particular details, like the popularity of sealed bid and ascending-bid auctions?

Coming 1986 Downturn Could Trigger Serious Recession, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

One of a series of columns Minsky wrote for the St. Louis Journalism Review. The ongoing column was titled, "“THE ECONOMY From The Not-So Ivory Tower."

South Dakota Farmland Market Trends-Another Year Of Declining Prices, Larry Janssen

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Costs Of State Vehicle And Driver Licensing In Indiana: A Comparison With Other States, Marilyn K. Spencer, Robert S. Main

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

Spencer and Main's contribution to Indiana Academy of the Social Sciences Proceedings, 1985.

Minnesota Housing Report [1985 4th Quarter], George R. Karvel Dr.

Minnesota Housing Reports

The Minnesota Housing Report is compiled on the basis of monthly housing reports furnished to the Minnesota Real Estate Research Center at St. Cloud State University. Funding to permit preparation of the Minnesota Housing Report is provided by the Educational Foundation of the Minnesota Association of Realtors and St. Cloud State University.

The reports are supplied by fourteen cooperating local real estate boards representing 71.1 percent of Minnesota's population. The boards represent various areas of the state and thus provide a picture of housing diversity between regions as well as housing trends within regions.

Information presented for the state or …

A "Dutch Uncle" Talk On Foreign Trade, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

This piece shows how trade protection causes more harm than good for the U.S. as well as other countries.

Imports And Unemployment: Dispelling The Myths, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

This paper looks at the myths concerning how imports reduce employment and clarifies many of the misconceptions. Recommendations are made on how trade policy can help American business be more competitive.

The Uses, Value And Limitation Of Game Theoretic Methods In Defense Analysis, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The central contribution of game theory to defense analysis has been a language for the understanding of how to formulate and study strategic or cross-purposes optimization in situations involving two or more actors. It is suggested here in this discussion that two fundamentally different classes of application of game theory to problems in defense have emerged. The first is the application of two-person zero sum game theory to military, primarily tactical situations which for the purposes at hand can be reasonably well modeled in this manner. The second is the application of two or more person nonconstant sum game theory …

On Finitely Repeated Games And Pseudo-Nash Equilibria, Chien-Fu Chou, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper we propose a pseudo-Nash equilibrium for N -person games in which very simply we allow play in the last period to be arbitrary, but otherwise it must conform to the (perfect) Nash optimality criterion.

Walrasian Indeterminacy And Keynesian Macroeconomics, John Geanakoplos, Heracles M. Polemarchakis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Overlapping generations models with or without production or a portfolio demand for money display a fundamental indeterminacy. Expectations matter; and they are not, in the short run, constrained by the hypotheses of agent optimization, rational expectations, and market clearing. No short run policy analysis is possible without some explicit understanding of how agents expect the economy to respond to the policy. In this framework of perfect foresight and market clearing prices, it is possible to make Keynesian assumptions about the rigidity of money wages and the exogeneity of “animal spirits” of investors, to use the standard IS-LM apparatus, and to …

Comparative Statics And Local Indeterminacy In Olg Economies: An Application Of The Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem, John Geanakoplos, Donald J. Brown

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This study is an effort to give a simple measure of the local size of the equilibrium set of OLG economies in which there may be more than one good and more than one consumer per period, and in which the generations may differ across time.

The Effect Of Market Power On The Fringe Benefit Share Of Labor Compensation, Brian Brush, Steven E. Crane

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

Economics Of Drying Grain, Richard C. Shane

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Economics Of Grain Storage, Richard C. Shane

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

Vanceboro, Maine, 1870-1900: A Hinterland Community, Faye E. Luppi, Marcella L. Sorge

Maine History

The article discusses the history of Vanceboro, Maine in the period from 1871 to 1900. It explores the impact of the relationship between this “hinterland community” and the metropolitan economies to which it was connected.

Strengthening The Corporate Board: A Constructive Reponses To Hostile Takeovers, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

This report examines the role of boards of directors and the pressures felt in the boardroom, especially when dealing with an unsolicited takeover. It also examines the different view of what a board can and should do. Recommendations are included for enhancing the board's ability to respond to external challenges.

Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests For Econometric Models: Ii. Theory, Donald W.K. Andrews

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper extends the Pearson chi-square testing method to non-dynamic parametric econometric models, in particular, to models with covariates. The paper establishes the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null and local alternatives, when the test statistic is based on data-dependent random cells of a general form, and on an arbitrary asymptotically normal estimator. These results are attained by extending recent probabilistic results for the weak convergence of empirical processes indexed by sets. The chi-square test that is introduced can be used to test goodness-of-fit of a parametric model, as well as to test particular aspects of the …

Fractional Matrix Calculus And The Distribution Of Multivariate Tests, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Fractional matrix operator methods are introduced as a new tool of distribution theory for use in multivariate analysis and econometrics. Earlier work by the author on this operational calculus is reviewed and to illustrate the use of these methods we give an exact distribution theory for a general class of tests in the multivariate linear model. This distribution theory unifies and generalizes previously known results, including those for the standard F statistic in linear regression, for Hotelling’s T 2 test and for Hotelling’s generalized T -2 test. We also provide a simple and novel derivation of conventional asymptotic theory as …

Neoclassical Theory In America: J. B. Clark And Fisher, James Tobin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The intellectual breakthroughs that mark the neoclassical revolution in economic analysis occurred in Europe around 1870. The next two decades witnessed lively debates in which the new theory more or less absorbed or was absorbed in the classical tradition that preceded and provoked it. In the 1890s, according to Joseph A. Schumpeter (1954, p. 754) there emerged “a large expanse of common ground and … a feeling of repose, both of which created, in the superficial observer, an impression of finality — the finality of a Greek temple that spreads its perfect lines against a cloudless sky.” Of course the …

The Many Properties Of Money: A Strategic Market Game Analysis, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Among the major properties of a money are that it can serve as (1) a numeraire, (2) a means of exchange, (3) a store of value, and (4) a source of liquidity. Among the lesser properties are that it should be easy to transport and identify, it should be durable, easily divisible, hard to counterfeit and easy to store. A possibly desirable property is that it is an anonymous “bearer instrument,” but the price of anonymity is that it is hard to recover if it is stolen. A personal check which is bank money can be stopped and is more …

Multiple Time Series Regression With Integrated Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Steven N. Durlauf

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a general asymptotic theory of regression for processes which are integrated of order one. The theory includes vector autoregressions and multivariate regressions amongst integrated processes that are driven by innovation sequences which allow for a wide class of weak dependence and heterogeneity. The models studied cover cointegrated systems and quite general linear simultaneous equations systems with contemporaneous regressor-error correlation and serially correlated errors. Problems of statistical testing in vector autoregressions and multivariate regressions with integrated processes are also studied. It is shown that the asymptotic theory for conventional tests involves major departures from classical theory and raises …

Asymptotic Results For Generalized Wald Tests, Donald W.K. Andrews

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This note presents conditions under which a quadratic form based on a g-inverted weighting matrix converges to a chi-square distribution as the sample size goes to infinity. Subject to fairly weak underlying conditions, a necessary and sufficient condition is given for this result. The result is of interest, because it is needed to establish asymptotic significance levels and local power properties of generalized Wald tests (i.e., Wald tests with singular limiting covariance matrices). Included in this class of tests are Hausman specification tests and various goodness of fit tests, among others. The necessary and sufficient condition is relevant to procedures …