Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Year-Independent Prediction Of Food Insecurity Using Classical & Neural Network Machine Learning Methods, Caleb Christiansen, Torrey J. Wagner, Brent Langhals

Faculty Publications

Current food crisis predictions are developed by the Famine Early Warning System Network, but they fail to classify the majority of food crisis outbreaks with model metrics of recall (0.23), precision (0.42), and f1 (0.30). In this work, using a World Bank dataset, classical and neural network (NN) machine learning algorithms were developed to predict food crises in 21 countries. The best classical logistic regression algorithm achieved a high level of significance (p < 0.001) and precision (0.75) but was deficient in recall (0.20) and f1 (0.32). Of particular interest, the classical algorithm indicated that the vegetation index and the food price index were both positively correlated with food crises. A novel method for performing an iterative multidimensional hyperparameter search is presented, which resulted in significantly improved performance when applied to this dataset. Four iterations were conducted, which resulted in excellent 0.96 for metrics of precision, recall, and f1. Due to this strong performance, the food crisis year was removed from the dataset to prevent immediate extrapolation when used on future data, and the modeling process was repeated. The best “no year” model metrics remained strong, achieving ≥0.92 for recall, precision, and f1 while meeting a 10% f1 overfitting threshold on the test (0.84) and holdout (0.83) datasets. The year-agnostic neural network model represents a novel approach to classify food crises and outperforms current food crisis prediction efforts.

A Tale Of Two Influences: An Exploration Of Downward Accountability In World Vision International, Elena Mccollim

Dissertations

International nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) face increasing accountability challenges stemming from past scandals and their claims to advance the public good. Since the 1990s, INGOs have responded with numerous reforms. The creation of the Humanitarian Accountability Partnership in 2003 and the INGO Accountability Charter in 2009 reflect sector-wide efforts to enhance accountability to mission, intended beneficiaries, and peer organizations.

Many INGOs have adopted a broad range of accountability reforms. This dissertation focuses on how World Vision, the world’s largest INGO, has done so. Downward accountability remains elusive due to such factors as INGOs’ lack of transparency toward beneficiaries; the power imbalance …

Humanitarian Assistance In Protracted Emergencies: Rethinking The Role Of Food Aid In Adjumani, Victoria Puglia

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Humanitarian food assistance is incredibly susceptible to funding cuts, which reduces the quantity of food available to refugees. If refugees depend solely on food aid for survival, the implication of reductions is increased food insecurity at a household level. The Government of Uganda champions a self-reliance strategy that has failed to support refugees to the desired extent, especially when food rations are low. This study aims to assess the impact of humanitarian food assistance on the socioeconomic structures of refugee settlements in Adjumani, Uganda to understand the consequences of unstable food aid. The research was conducted over a four-week period. …

Documentation And Emotions: Producing Displaced Legal Subjects, Susan M. Sterett

Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies

Disasters are globally inflected today in humanitarian assistance, the organizations that support people after disaster and operate globally, and in the mobilization of arguments international human rights arguments. The domestic bureaucratic processes of humanitarian assistance after disaster in the United States do not state these connections; after Hurricane Katrina in the United States, they were most evident in the people and organizations that helped, and in the flow of humanitarian assistance from around the world that paid for assistance. Second, domestic documents for claiming assistance must limit that assistance to people hurt in disaster. That means they assist people who …

Failed States And Fragile Societies: A New World Disorder?, Ingo Trauschweizer, Steven M. Miner

Ohio University Press Open Access Books

Since the end of the Cold War, a new dynamic has arisen within the international system, one that does not conform to established notions of the state’s monopoly on war. In this changing environment, the global community must decide how to respond to the challenges posed to the state by military threats, political and economic decline, and social fragmentation. This insightful work considers the phenomenon of state failure and asks how the international community might better detect signs of state decay at an early stage and devise legally and politically legitimate responses.

This collection of essays brings military and social …

Unnatural Disasters: Rethinking The Distinction Between Natural And Man-Made Catastrophe, Michael D. Cooper, Esq.

Michael D. Cooper, Esq.

The distinction between “natural” and “man-made” disaster has grown increasingly difficult to defend. Our current conception conflates extreme natural events with the notion of disaster—an exclusively human construct. We define our cultural perception of “natural” disaster through three “man-made” constructs. First, our values alone characterize the scope and scale of loss. Second, our volition exacerbates otherwise benign natural hazards, exposes us to otherwise avoidable hazards, and, through technology, generates new and otherwise non-existent hazards. Finally, when natural hazards do unleash their destructive powers, pre-existing socio-economic inequalities manifest as vulnerabilities that ultimately determine both absolute and relative social outcomes and impacts. …

Learning From Libya, Acting In Syria, Caitlin A. Buckley

Journal of Strategic Security

The international community has reached an impasse. The violence committed by Syrian President Assad's government against opposition forces, who have been calling for democratic reform, regime change, and expanded rights, has necessitated a response from the international community. This article explores various ways the international community could respond to the crisis in Syria and the consequences of each approach. It compares the current calamity in Syria to the crisis in Libya and examines the international community's response to the violence perpetrated by Qaddafi's regime. It further analyzes reports, primarily from the UN and news sources, about the ongoing predicament in …

Faith-Based Peacebuilding: A Case Study Of The National Council Of Churches Of Kenya, John Mwangi Githigaro

Peace and Conflict Studies

This article explores the peacebuilding contribution of the National Council of Churches of Kenya (NCCK), following the post-2007 election violence in Kenya. Faith-based organizations are increasingly taking an active role in peacebuilding in conflict prone and affected societies. The paper presents research findings that the NCCK perceived that it was positively involved in areas of humanitarian assistance and building of bridges among communities divided by the violence. The paper contextualizes the triggers or the causes of the post-election violence in Kenya after the December 2007 elections and offers suggestions for peaceful co-existence.

Contributing To Progress In Sri Lanka, Liz Wegman

The Journal of Conventional Weapons Destruction

This article highlights the activities of People to People International in Sri Lanka. As part of its commitment to Sri Lanka, PTPI not only assisted in the clearance of high-priority minefields, but also provided aid following the 2004 tsunami. Today, PTPI remains dedicated to helping the of Sri Lankan people.

Coalition Modeling In Humanitarian Assistance Operations, Sung Wan Bang

Theses and Dissertations

Multinational operations are carried out to achieve military and diplomatic objectives in various regions. Such operations derive a great deal of benefits from sharing budgets, political legitimacy, sharing each national experience and technological resources, and so forth. However, a coalition, one structure of multinational operations, often involves serious challenges in such areas as command and control, logistic support, communication and language, training, and intelligence and information due to its ad hoc characteristics. This research reviews general problems in a coalition operation, and develops the Coalition Operation Planning Model to assist coalition commanders or staff in producing an efficient operational plan. …

Modeling And Analysis Of Post-Conflict Reconstruction, Damon B. Richardson

Theses and Dissertations

The forces at play in reconstruction operations are a complex system of time phased interlocking cause and effect relationships that are not thoroughly understood. A model capable of capturing the general dynamics involved in post-conflict reconstruction would provide insight to decision makers regarding potential policy alternatives. This research effort demonstrates the viability of using systems dynamics modeling techniques to simulate the establishment of public order and safety in a post-conflict reconstruction operation (Phase IV operations). A high level generic framework is developed that can be used as a general template for modeling post-conflict reconstruction. It is then demonstrated with a …

Supply Chain Management In Humanitarian Relief Logistics, William K. Rodman

Theses and Dissertations

Hundreds of millions of people are affected by disasters each year. This thesis explores the use of supply chain management techniques to overcome the barriers encountered by logistics managers during humanitarian relief operations. Using grounded theory methodology, barriers were analyzed based on academic, organizational, and contemporary literature. Possible solutions to these barriers were selected from available supply chain management literature. This work is different from others in that it marries supply chain principles from different disciplines (including private, nonprofit, and military sectors) to benefit humanitarian operations. It also serves to advance the body of knowledge on this subject so that …

Eric Munoz On The Geopolitics Of Hunger 2000-2001: Hunger And Power Edited By Action Against Hunger. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2000. 354pp., Eric Muñoz

Human Rights & Human Welfare

A review of:

The Geopolitics of Hunger 2000-2001: Hunger and Power edited by Action Against Hunger. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2000. 354pp.