Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Introduction: Climate Change And Planned Retreat, Idowu Jola Ajibade, A. R. Siders

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Chapter 1.

This edited volume advances our understanding of climate relocation (or planned retreat), an emerging topic in the fields of climate adaptation and hazard risk, and provides a platform for alternative voices and views on the subject. As the effects of climate change become more severe and widespread, there is a growing conversation about when, where and how people will move. Climate relocation is a controversial adaptation strategy, yet the process can also offer opportunity and hope. This collection grapples with the environmental and social justice dimensions from multiple perspectives, with cases drawn from Africa, Asia, Australia, Oceania, South …

Spatial Proximity Matters: A Study On Collaboration, Arianna Salazar Miranda, Matthew Claudel

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

As scientific research becomes increasingly cross-disciplinary, many universities seek to support collaborative activity through new buildings and institutions. This study examines the impacts of spatial proximity on collaboration at MIT from 2005 to 2015. By exploiting a shift in the location of researchers due to building renovations, we evaluate how discrete changes in physical proximity affect the likelihood that researchers co-author. The findings suggest that moving researchers into the same building increases their propensity to collaborate, with the effect plateauing five years after the move. The effects are large when compared to the average rate of collaboration among pairs of …

Assessment Of Urban Flood Vulnerability Using The Social-Ecological-Technological Systems Framework In Six Us Cities, Heejun Chang, Arun Pallathadka, Jason Sauer, Nancy B. Grimm, Rae Zimmerman, Chingwen Cheng, David Iwaniec, Yeowon Kim, Multiple Additional Authors

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

As urban populations continue to grow through the 21st century, more people are projected to be at risk of exposure to climate change-induced extreme events. To investigate the complexity of urban floods, this study applied an interlinked social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) vulnerability framework by developing an urban flood vulnerability index for six US cities. Indicators were selected to reflect and illustrate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to flooding for each of the three domains of SETS. We quantified 18 indicators and normalized them by the cities’ 500-yr floodplain area at the census block group level. Clusters of flood vulnerable areas were …

Environmental And Spatial Factors Affecting Surface Water Quality In A Himalayan Watershed, Central Nepal, Janardan Mainali, Heejun Chang

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Various spatial interrelationships among sampling stations are not well explored in the spatial modeling of water quality literature. This research explores the relationship between water quality and various social, demographic, and topographic factors in an urbanizing watershed of Nepal with a comparison of different connectivity matrices to conceptualize spatial interrelationships. We collected electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen data from surface water bodies using a handheld probe and used the data to establish relationships with land use, topography, and population density-based explanatory variables at both watershed and 100-m buffer scales. The linear regression model was compared with different eigenvector-based spatial filtering …

A 30-Yr Climatology Of Meteorological Conditions Associated With Lightning Days In The Interior Western United States, Dmitri Alexander Kalashnikov, Paul Loikith, Arielle J. Catalano, Duane E. Waliser, Huikyo Lee, John T. Abatzoglou

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

A 30-yr climatology of lightning days and associated synoptic meteorological patterns are characterized across the interior western United States (WUS). Locally centered composite analyses show preferred synoptic meteorological patterns with positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies located to the northeast and negative sea level pressure anomalies to the northwest and collocated with local lightning days. Variations in preferred patterns for local lightning days are seen across the interior WUS. Areas not commonly affected by the North American monsoon system including the western Great Basin and northern Rocky Mountains show higher-amplitude anomalies of geopotential height, moisture, and midtropospheric instability patterns suggesting the …

Legal Geographies And Political Ecologies Of Water Allocation In Maui, Hawai'i, Alida Cantor, Kelly Kay, Chris Knudson

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Throughout the Hawaiian Islands, sugar plantations have controlled a large proportion of water resources for over a century, often leaving little water in streams to support ecosystems or Native Hawaiian cultural and agricultural practices. Recently, in Maui, Hawai‘i, community activists and lawyers representing Native Hawaiian and environmental interests have successfully reclaimed water resources for instream flow utilizing legal processes and tools such as Hawai‘i’s public trust doctrine, which has plural roots in both Hawaiian and Western legal traditions. In this paper, we use qualitative fieldwork, including interviews, participant observation, and archival data collection, to explore two recent and ongoing legal …

Socio-Hydrology: An Interplay Of Design And Self-Organization In A Multilevel World, David J. Yu, Heejun Chang, Taylor T. Davis, Vicken Hillis, Landon T. Marston, Woi Sok Oh, Murugesu Sivapalan, Timothy M. Waring

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The emerging field of socio-hydrology is a special case of social-ecological systems research that focuses on coupled human-water systems, exploring how the hydrologic cycle and human cultural traits coevolve and how such coevolutions lead to phenomena of relevance to water security and sustainability. As such, most problems tackled by socio-hydrology involve some aspects of engineering design, such as large-scale water infrastructure, and self-organization in a broad context, such as cultural change at the population level and the hydrologic shift at the river basin or aquifer level. However, within the field of socio-hydrology, it has been difficult to find general theories …

Spatiotemporal Variability Of Twenty‐First‐Century Changes In Site‐Specific Snowfall Frequency Over The Northwest United States, Arielle J. Catalano, Paul C. Loikith, C. M. Aragon

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

In the Northwest United States, warming temperatures threaten mountain snowpacks. Reliable projections of snowfall changes are therefore critical to anticipate the timeline of change. However, producing such projections is challenging, as most state‐of‐the‐art climate models are limited in sufficiently resolving influential topography. Here we leverage atmospheric freezing level to estimate precipitation phase and project twenty‐first‐century snowfall frequency change at Snowpack Telemetry Network stations across the Northwest. Under “moderate” and “business‐as‐usual” emission pathways in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models, snowfall frequency is projected to decline at all stations. Business‐as‐usual declines accelerate after midcentury at most locations, whereas moderate declines …

California Groundwater Management, Science-Policy Interfaces, And The Legacies Of Artificial Legal Distinctions, David Owen, Alida Cantor, Nell Green Nylen, Thomas Harter, Michael Kiparsky

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

California water law has traditionally treated groundwater and surface water as separate resources. The 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) broke with this tradition by requiring groundwater managers to avoid significant and unreasonable adverse impacts to beneficial uses of surface water. This paper considers the trajectory of this partial integration of science, law, and resource management policy. Drawing on legal analysis and participatory workshops with subject area experts, we describe the challenges of reconciling the separate legal systems that grew out of an artificial legal distinction between different aspects of the same resource.

Our analysis offers two main contributions. First, …

Sources Of Contaminated Flood Sediments In A Rural–Urban Catchment: Johnson Creek, Oregon, Heejun Chang, Deonie Allen, Jennifer L. Morse, Janardan Mainali

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study investigated the delivery of contaminated sediments to the channel network by urban drainage systems in Johnson Creek in Oregon, USA. Concentrations of five heavy metal concentrations measured in 136 samples collected from 37 stormwater outfalls and 99 bed sampling points were analysed. While concentrations of zinc, cadmium and lead increased with distance downstream in Johnson Creek, this was not the case for chromium and copper. Zinc, copper, and cadmium concentrations in outfalls were significantly higher than those in the stream bed, indicating that stormwater runoff is responsible for delivering contaminated sediments to Johnson Creek. Zinc concentrations in outfalls …

Landscape Drivers Of Recent Fire Activity (2001- 2017) In South-Central Chile, David B. Mcwethy, Aníbal Pauchard, Rafeal García, Andrés Holz, Mauro E. Gonzales, Thomas T. Veblen, Julian Stahl, Bryce Currey

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent decades large fires have affected communities throughout central and southern Chile with great social and ecological consequences. Despite this high fire activity, the controls and drivers and the spatiotemporal pattern of fires are not well understood. To identify the large-scale trends and drivers of recent fire activity across six regions in south-central Chile (~32–40° S Latitude) we evaluated MODIS satellite-derived fire detections and compared this data with Chilean Forest Service records for the period 2001–2017. MODIS burned area estimates provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive record of fire activity across an important bioclimatic transition zone between dry Mediterranean …

Speculations On The Postnatural: Restoration, Accumulation, And Sacrifice At The Salton Sea, Alida Cantor, Sarah Knuth

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Using a regional political ecology lens, this paper explores emerging geographies and politics of a “postnatural” ecomodernist turn in mainstream environmentalism. We examine the unfolding case of ecological restoration and renewable energy development at Southern California’s Salton Sea. Ambitious proposals to restore the massive, increasingly degraded lake (and finance restoration) by reengineering it as a hub for geothermal energy generation and hightech green industry hinge upon the ambiguity and malleability of restoration in an environment long classified as postnatural. These plans coincide with a broader rush on renewable energy sites in the California desert, and mounting conflicts over water and …

Simultaneous Regional Detection Of Land-Use Changes And Elevated Ghg Levels: The Case Of Spring Precipitation In Tropical South America, Armineh Barkhordarian, Hans Von Storch, Ali Behrangi, Paul C. Loikith, Carlos R. Mechoso, Judah Detzer

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

A decline in dry season precipitation over tropical South America has a large impact on ecosystem health of the region. Results here indicate that the magnitude of negative trends in dry season precipitation in the past decades exceeds the estimated range of trends due to natural variability of the climate system defined in both the preindustrial climate and during the 850–1850 millennium. The observed drying is associated with an increase in vapor pressure deficit. The univariate detection analysis shows that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing has a systematic influence in negative 30-year trends of precipitation ending in 1998 and later on. …

More Than The Sum Of Its Parts: How Disturbance Interactions Shape Forest Dynamics Under Climate Change, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Brian R. Sturtevant, Eric J. Gustafson, Alec M. Kretchun, Jane R. Foster

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Interactions among disturbances are seldom quantified, and how they will be affected by climate change is even more uncertain. In this study, we sought to better understand how interactions among disturbances shift under climate change by applying a process-based landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II) to project disturbance regimes under climate change in north-central Minnesota, USA. Specifically, we (1) contrasted mortality rates and the extent of disturbance for four individual (single) disturbance regimes (fire, insects, wind, or forest management) vs. all four disturbance regimes operating simultaneously (concurrent) under multiple climate change scenarios and (2) determined how climate change interacts with …

Climate Change Amplifications Of Climate‐Fire Teleconnections In The Southern Hemisphere, Michela Mariani, Andrés Holz, Thomas T. Veblen, Grant J. Williamson, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, David M. J. S. Bowman

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap …

Fisheries’ Property Regimes And Environmental Outcomes: A Realist Synthesis Review, Rebecca J. Mclain, Steven Lawry, Maria Ojanen

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Our paper describes the application of a realist approach to synthesizing evidence from 31 articles examining the environmental outcomes of marine protected areas governed under different types of property regimes. The development of resource tenure interventions that promote sustainable management practices has been challenged by the difficulties of determining how contextual factors affect environmental outcomes given the complexity of socio-ecological systems. Realist synthesis is a promising evidence review technique for identifying the mechanisms that influence policy intervention outcomes in complex systems. Through a combination of inductive and deductive analysis of the links between context, mechanisms, and outcomes, realist synthesis can …

Holocene Dynamics Of Temperate Rainforests In West-Central Patagonia, Virginia Iglesias, Simon G. Haberle, Andrés Holz, Cathy Whitlock

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Analyses of long-term ecosystem dynamics offer insights into the conditions that have led to stability vs. rapid change in the past and the importance of disturbance in regulating community composition. In this study, we (1) used lithology, pollen, and charcoal data from Mallín Casanova (47°S) to reconstruct the wetland, vegetation, and fire history of west-central Patagonia; and (2) compared the records with independent paleoenvironmental and archeological information to assess the effects of past climate and human activity on ecosystem dynamics. Pollen data indicate that Nothofagus-Pilgerodendronforests were established by 9,000 cal yr BP. Although the biodiversity of the understory increased …

Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Powered By Apache Open Climate Workbench V1.3.0: An Enabling Tool For Facilitating Regional Climate Studies, Huikyo Lee, Alexander Goodman, Lewis Mcgibbney, Duane E. Waliser, Jinwon Kim, Paul C. Loikith, Peter B. Gibson, Elias C. Massoud

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an enabling tool of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to support the United States National Climate Assessment. As a comprehensive system for evaluating climate models on regional and continental scales using observational datasets from a variety of sources, RCMES is designed to yield information on the performance of climate models and guide their improvement. Here, we present a user-oriented document describing the latest version of RCMES, its development process, and future plans for improvements. The main objective of RCMES is to facilitate the climate model evaluation process at regional scales. RCMES …

Multiple Methods Of Public Engagement: Disaggregating Socio-Spatial Data For Environmental Planning In Western Washington, Usa, Rebecca J. Mclain, David Banis, Alexa Todd, Lee Cerveny

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Highlights

• The effectiveness of participatory GIS approaches at engaging different publics was explored.

• Online surveys engaged urbanites; community workshops engaged rural residents.

• Urban and rural residents went to similar places but engaged in different activities.

• Use of multiple data collection methods will broaden public engagement.

• Mapping behavior studies are needed to improve understandings of PPGIS data quality.

Removing Dams, Constructing Science: Coproduction Of Undammed Riverscapes By Politics, Finance, Environment, Society And Technology, Zbigniew J. Grabowski, Ashlie Denton, Mary Ann Rozance, Marissa Matsler, Sarah Kidd

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Dam removal in the United States has continued to increase in pace and scope, transitioning from a dam-safety engineering practice to an integral component of many large-scale river restoration programmes. At the same time, knowledge around dam removals remains fragmented by disciplinary silos and a lack of knowledge transfer between communities of practice around dam removal and academia. Here we argue that dam removal science, as a study of large restoration-oriented infrastructure interventions, requires the construction of an interdisciplinary framework to integrate knowledge relevant to decision-making on dam removal. Drawing upon infrastructure studies, relational theories of coproduction of knowledge and …

Values Mapping And Counter-Mapping In Contested Landscapes: An Olympic Peninsula (Usa) Case Study, Rebecca J. Mclain, Lee Cerveny, Kelly Biedenweg, David Banis

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Indigenous peoples, local communities, and other groups can use counter-mapping to make land claims, identify areas of desired access, or convey cultural values that diverge from the dominant paradigm. While sometimes created independently, counter-maps also can be formulated during public participation mapping events sponsored by natural resource planning agencies. Public participation mapping elicits values, uses, and meanings of landscapes from diverse stakeholders, yet individuals and advocacy groups can use the mapping process as an opportunity to make visible strongly held values and viewpoints. We present three cases from the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State to illustrate how stakeholders intentionally used …

Finding Water Scarcity Amid Abundance Using Human–Natural System Models, William K. Jaeger, Adell Amos, Daniel P. Bigelow, Heejun Chang, David R. Conklin, Roy Haggerty, Christian Langpap, Kathleen Moore, Philip Mote, Anne W. Nolin, Andrew J. Plantinga, Cynthia L. Schwartz, Desiree Tullos, David P. Turner

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water’s indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water’s spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human–natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. …

Quantifying Resilience Of Multiple Ecosystem Services And Biodiversity In A Temperate Forest Landscape, Elena Cantarello, Adrian C. Newton, Phillip A. Martin, Paul M. Evans, Arjan Gosal, Melissa S. Lucash

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Resilience is increasingly being considered as a new paradigm of forest management among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers. However, metrics of resilience to environmental change are lacking. Faced with novel disturbances, forests may be able to sustain existing ecosystem services and biodiversity by exhibiting resilience, or alternatively these attributes may undergo either a linear or nonlinear decline. Here we provide a novel quantitative approach for assessing forest resilience that focuses on three components of resilience, namely resistance, recovery, and net change, using a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. Under the pulse set scenarios, we explored the resilience of nine ecosystem …

Southern Annular Mode Drives Multicentury Wildfire Activity In Southern South America, Andrés Holz, Juan Paritsis, Ignacio A. Mundo, Thomas T. Veblen, Thomas Kitzberger, Grant J. Williamson, Ezequiel Aráoz, Carlos Bustos-Schindler, Mauro E. González, H. Ricardo Grau, Juan M. Quezada

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the main driver of climate variability at mid to high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, affecting wildfire activity, which in turn pollutes the air and contributes to human health problems and mortality, and potentially provides strong feedback to the climate system through emissions and land cover changes. Here we report the largest Southern Hemisphere network of annually resolved tree ring fire histories, consisting of 1,767 fire-scarred trees from 97 sites (from 22 °S to 54 °S) in southern South America (SAS), to quantify the coupling of SAM and regional wildfire variability using recently created …

Characterizing Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns And Associated Temperature And Precipitation Extremes Over The Northwestern United States Using Self-Organizing Maps, Paul C. Loikith, Benjamin R. Lintner, Alex Sweeney

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The self-organizing maps (SOMs) approach is demonstrated as a way to identify a range of archetypal large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) over the northwestern United States and connect these patterns with local-scale temperature and precipitation extremes. SOMs are used to construct a set of 12 characteristic LSMPs (nodes) based on daily reanalysis circulation fields spanning the range of observed synoptic-scale variability for the summer and winter seasons for the period 1979–2013. Composites of surface variables are constructed for subsets of days assigned to each node to explore relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the node patterns. The SOMs approach also captures interannual …

Precipitation Intensity Trend Detection Using Hourly And Daily Observations In Portland, Oregon, Alexis Cooley, Heejun Chang

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The intensity of precipitation is expected to increase in response to climate change, but the regions where this may occur are unclear. The lack of certainty from climate models warrants an examination of trends in observational records. However, the temporal resolution of records may affect the success of trend detection. Daily observations are often used, but may be too coarse to detect changes. Sub-daily records may improve detection, but their value is not yet quantified. Using daily and hourly records from 24 rain gages in Portland, Oregon (OR), trends in precipitation intensity and volume are examined for the period of …

Evaluating Hourly Rainfall Characteristics Over The U.S. Great Plains In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Simulations Using Nasa-Unified Wrf, Huikyo Lee, Duane E. Waliser, Robert Ferraro, Takamichi Iguchi, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Baijun Tian, Paul C. Loikith, Daniel B. Wright

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events remains a challenge in climate models. This study utilizes hourly precipitation data from ground stations and satellite instruments to evaluate rainfall characteristics simulated by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) regional climate model at horizontal resolutions of 4, 12, and 24 km over the Great Plains of the United States. We also examined the sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to different spectral nudging approaches and the cumulus parameterizations. The rainfall characteristics in the observations and simulations were defined as an hourly diurnal cycle of precipitation and a joint probability distribution function (JPDF) between …

Urban Non-Timber Forest Products Stewardship Practices Among Foragers In Seattle, Washington (Usa), Rebecca J. Mclain, Melissa R. Poe, Lauren S. Urgenson, Dale Blahna, Lita P. Buttolph

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Our research seeks to expand the concept of urban environmental stewardship to include the everyday stewardship practices of urban nontimber forest products foragers. Ethnographic data from 58 urban foragers and 18 land stewards in the city of Seattle (USA) revealed that foragers reported using a variety of practices to enhance and minimize negative desirable species and their habitats. Many of these practices were identical to those practiced by restoration volunteers in formal programs and align with Seattle Parks Department management objectives. Foragers actively sought to learn more about what practices are sustainable; many mentored others in sustainable harvesting practices. Most …

Enso Controls Interannual Fire Activity In Southeast Australia, Michela Mariani, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Andrés Holz, Petter Nyman

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode controlling the variability in the ocean-atmosphere system in the South Pacific. While the ENSO influence on rainfall regimes in the South Pacific is well documented, its role in driving spatiotemporal trends in fire activity in this region has not been rigorously investigated. This is particularly the case for the highly flammable and densely populated southeast Australian sector, where ENSO is a major control over climatic variability. Here we conduct the first region-wide analysis of how ENSO controls fire activity in southeast Australia. We identify a significant relationship between ENSO and both fire …

Can Significant Trends Be Detected In Surface Air Temperature And Precipitation Over South America In Recent Decades?, Daniel De Barros Soares, Huikyo Lee, Paul C. Loikith, Armineh Barkhordarian, Carlos R. Mechoso

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Trends in near-surface air temperature and precipitation over South America are examined for the periods 1975–2004 and 1955–2004, respectively, using multiple observational and climate model data sets. The results for observed near-surface air temperature show an overall warming trend over much of the continent, with the largest magnitudes over central Brazil. These observed trends are found to be statistically significant using pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as the baseline to estimate natural climate variability. The observed trends are compared with those obtained in natural-only CMIP5 simulations, in which only natural forcings …